Montane organisms responded to Quaternary climate change by tracking suitable habitat along elevational gradients. However, it is unclear whether these past climatic dynamics generated predictable patterns of genetic diversity in co-occurring montane taxa. To test if the genetic variation is associated with historical changes in the elevational distribution of montane habitats, we integrated paleoclimatic data and a model selection approach for testing the demographic history of five co-distributed bird species occurring in the southern Atlantic Forest sky islands. We found that changes in historical population sizes and current genetic diversity are attributable to habitat dynamics among time periods and the current elevational distribution of populations. Taxa with populations restricted to the more climatically dynamic southern mountain block (SMB) had, on average, a six-fold demographic expansion, whereas the populations from the northern mountain block (NMB) remained constant. In the current configuration of the southern Atlantic Forest montane habitats, populations in the SMB have more widespread elevational distributions, occur at lower elevations, and harbor higher levels of genetic diversity than NMB populations. Despite the apparent coupling of demographic and climatic oscillations, our data rejected simultaneous population structuring due to historical habitat fragmentation. Demographic modeling indicated that the species had different modes of differentiation, and varied in the timing of divergence and the degree of gene flow across mountain blocks. Our results suggest that the heterogeneous distribution of genetic variation in birds of the Atlantic Forest sky islands is associated with the interplay between topography and climate of distinct mountains, leading to predictable patterns of genetic diversity.
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