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National Guideline Centre (UK). Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: Assessment and Management. London: National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE); 2016 Jul. (NICE Guideline, No. 49.)
K.1. Risk factors for NAFLD
K.1.1.1. Waist circumference
Figure 15. Waist circumference as a prognostic risk factor for NAFLD (Hazard ratio) (adults)
Figure 16. Waist circumference as a prognostic risk factor for NAFLD (Odds ratio) (adults)
K.1.1.2. Hypertension
Figure 17. Hypertension as a risk factor for NAFLD (Hazard ratio) (adults)
Figure 18. Hypertension as a risk factor for NAFLD (Odds ratio) (adults
K.1.1.3. Triglycerides
Figure 19. Triglycerides as a risk factor for NAFLD (Hazard ratio) (adults)
Figure 20. Triglycerides as a risk factor for NAFLD (Odds ratio) (adults
K.1.1.4. Low HDL-cholesterol
Figure 21. HDL-cholesterol as a prognostic risk factor for NAFLD (Hazard ratio) (adults)
Figure 22. HDL-cholesterol as a prognostic risk factor for NAFLD (Odds ratio) (adults)
K.1.1.5. Type 2 diabetes
Figure 23. Type 2 diabetes as a prognostic risk factor for NAFLD (adults)
K.1.1.6. Age
Figure 24. Age as a prognostic risk factor for NAFLD (Hazard ratios) (adults)
Figure 25. Age as a prognostic risk factor for NAFLD (Odds ratios)(adults)
K.1.1.7. BMI
Figure 26. BMI as a prognostic risk factor for NAFLD (Hazard ratio) (adults)
Figure 27. BMI as a prognostic risk factor for NAFLD (Odds ratio) (adults)
K.1.1.8. Metabolic syndrome (combination of prognostic factors)
Figure 28. Metabolic syndrome as a prognostic risk factor for NAFLD (Hazard ratio) (adults)
Figure 29. Metabolic syndrome as a prognostic risk factor for NAFLD (Odds ratio) (adults)
K.2. Diagnosis of NAFLD
K.2.1. Diagnosing steatosis ≥5%
K.2.1.1. Coupled sensitivity and specificity forest plots and pooled diagnostic meta-analysis plots
Figure 30. CAP for diagnosing steatosis >5%
Figure 32. FLI for diagnosing steatosis ≥5%
Figure 33. MRI-DE for diagnosing steatosis ≥5%
Figure 34. MRI fat-fraction for diagnosing steatosis ≥5%
Figure 35. MRI fat-water ratio for diagnosing steatosis ≥5%
Figure 36. MRI PDFF for diagnosing steatosis ≥5%
Figure 37. MRI %RSID for diagnosing steatosis ≥5%
Figure 38. MRI-TE for diagnosing steatosis ≥5%
Figure 39. MRS for diagnosing steatosis ≥5%
Figure 41. NAFLD-LFS for diagnosing steatosis ≥5%
Figure 42. SteatoTest for diagnosing steatosis ≥5%
Figure 43. Ultrasound (no threshold specified) for diagnosing steatosis ≥5%
Figure 44. Diagnostic meta-analysis of ultrasound for diagnosing steatosis ≥5%
Figure 45. Ultrasound (hepatorenal contrast) for diagnosing steatosis ≥5%
K.2.2. Diagnosing steatosis ≥30%
K.2.2.1. Coupled sensitivity and specificity forest plots and pooled diagnostic meta-analysis plots
Figure 52. CAP for diagnosing steatosis ≥30%
Figure 54. FLI for diagnosing steatosis ≥30%
Figure 55. MRI-DE for diagnosing steatosis ≥30%
Figure 56. MRI-PDFF for diagnosing steatosis ≥30%
Figure 57. MRI %RSID for diagnosing steatosis ≥30%
Figure 58. MRS for diagnosing steatosis ≥30%
Figure 59. NAFLD LFS for diagnosing steatosis ≥30%
Figure 60. SteatoTest for diagnosing steatosis ≥30%
Figure 61. Ultrasound (no threshold specified) for diagnosing steatosis ≥30%
Figure 62. Diagnostic meta-analysis of ultrasound for diagnosing steatosis ≥30%
Figure 63. Ultrasound (hepatorenal contrast) for diagnosing steatosis ≥30
K.3. Diagnosing the severity of NAFLD
K.3.1. Diagnosing NASH
K.3.1.1. Coupled sensitivity and specificity forest plots
Figure 71. ALT levels for diagnosing NASH at increasing thresholds from 19 to 100
Figure 72. CK 18 [M30] for diagnosing NASH at increasing thresholds from 121.6 to 670
Figure 73. CK 18 [M65] for diagnosing NASH at increasing thresholds from 242.82 to 1183
Figure 74. Ferritin for diagnosing NASH at increasing thresholds from 160 to 240
K.3.2. Diagnosing any fibrosis (≥F1)
K.3.2.1. Coupled sensitivity and specificity forest plots
Figure 80. Ferritin for diagnosing any fibrosis at increasing thresholds from 208 to 500
K.3.2.2. Area under the curve plots
K.3.3. Diagnosing advanced fibrosis
K.3.3.1. Coupled sensitivity and specificity forest plots and pooled diagnostic meta-analysis plots
Figure 88. APRI for diagnosing advanced fibrosis at increasing thresholds from 0.5 to 1
Figure 90. AST/ALT ratio for diagnosing advanced fibrosis at increasing thresholds from 0.67 to 1.6
Figure 93. BARD for diagnosing advanced fibrosis
Figure 94. Diagnostic meta-analysis of BARD at a threshold of 2 for diagnosing advanced fibrosis
Figure 95. ELF for diagnosing advanced fibrosis at increasing thresholds from -3.37 to 10.51
Figure 97. Ferritin for diagnosing advanced fibrosis at increasing thresholds from 250 to 500
Figure 98. FIB-4 for diagnosing advanced fibrosis at increasing thresholds from 1.3 to 3.25
Figure 99. Diagnostic meta-analysis of FIB-4 at a threshold of 1.3 for diagnosing advanced fibrosis
Figure 102. FibroTest for diagnosing advanced fibrosis at increasing thresholds from 0.3 to 0.7
Figure 106. ARFI for diagnosing advanced fibrosis at increasing thresholds from 1.77 to 4.24
K.3.3.2. Area under the curve plots
Figure 113. APRI advanced fibrosis
Figure 114. AST/ALT ratio advanced fibrosis
Figure 115. BARD advanced fibrosis
Figure 116. ELF advanced fibrosis
Figure 117. ELF + NAFLD fibrosis score advanced fibrosis
Figure 118. Ferritin advanced fibrosis
Figure 119. FibroTest advanced fibrosis
Figure 120. FIB-4 advanced fibrosis
Figure 121. NAFLD fibrosis score advanced fibrosis
Figure 122. ARFI advanced fibrosis
Figure 123. MRE advanced fibrosis
K.4. Monitoring NAFLD progression
NB. The GDG requested that the forest plots be titled with ‘favouring’ indicating a higher chance of fibrosis progression, rather than indicating less likely to have a negative outcome as is the normal NGC practice.
K.4.1. Fibrosis progression rate: NAFLD patients (no fibrosis at baseline)
Figure 126. Fibrosis progression rate for NAFLD patients (no fibrosis at baseline)
K.4.2. Fibrosis progression rate: NAFL patients (no fibrosis at baseline)
Figure 127. Fibrosis progression rate for NAFL patients (no fibrosis at baseline)
K.4.3. Fibrosis progression rate: NASH (no fibrosis at baseline)
Figure 128. Fibrosis progression rate for NASH patients (no fibrosis at baseline)
K.4.4. Fibrosis progression rate: NAFLD (any fibrosis baseline status)
Figure 129. Fibrosis progression rate for NAFLD patients (any fibrosis at baseline)
K.4.5. Factors measured at baseline associated with change in biopsy fibrosis
Figure 130. HOMA-IR score>10 as a risk factor for fibrosis progression
Figure 132. Hypertension as a risk factor for fibrosis progression
Figure 133. FIB-4 score at baseline as a risk factor for fibrosis progression
K.4.6. Factors measured at follow up associated with change in biopsy fibrosis
Figure 134. Change in HbA1C as a risk factor for fibrosis regression
Figure 135. Treatment with insulin as a risk factor for fibrosis regression
Figure 136. Diabetes type 2 as a risk factor for fibrosis progression
Figure 139. FIB-4 score at follow up as a risk factor for fibrosis progression
K.5. Extra-hepatic conditions
K.5.1. Cardiovascular disease
K.5.1.1. Atrial fibrillation
Figure 140. NAFLD as a risk factor for atrial fibrillation in people with diabetes
K.5.1.2. Cardiovascular events
Figure 141. Hepatic steatosis as a risk factor for cardiovascular events
Figure 142. Fat content as a risk factor for cardiovascular events
K.5.1.3. Cardiovascular mortality
Figure 144. NAFLD as a risk factor for cardiovascular-related death
Figure 145. NASH as a risk factor for cardiovascular-related death
K.5.1.4. Coronary artery disease
K.5.1.5. Hypertension
K.5.2. Colorectal cancer
Figure 152. Fatty liver as a risk factor for colorectal cancer in women
K.5.3. Diabetes
Figure 154. NAFLD as a risk factor for diabetes
Figure 155. Fatty liver as a risk factor for diabetes
Figure 156. NAFLD as a risk factor for diabetes in men
Figure 157. Fatty liver as a risk factor for diabetes according to gender
Figure 160. Improvement in NAFLD as a risk factor for diabetes in comparison with sustained NAFLD
Figure 161. Fatty liver as a risk factor for diabetes or impaired fasting glucose
K.6. Dietary modification and supplements
K.6.1. Probiotics verses placebo or usual care: RCT
Figure 165. NAFLD progression; MRS hepatic triglyceride content (adults), ≥3 months to <12 months
Figure 167. ALT (U/l) (adults), ≥3 months to <12 months
Figure 168. ALT (U/l) (children / young adults), ≥3 months to <12 months
Figure 169. AST (U/l) (adults), ≥3 months to <12 months
Figure 170. Weight (kg) adults, ≥3 months to <12 months
Figure 171. Weight loss (BMI at end of study) (children / young people), ≥3 months to <12 months
Figure 172. Any adverse event (adults), ≥3 months to <12 months
Figure 173. Serious adverse event (adults), ≥3 months to <12 months
K.6.2. Omega-3 fatty acids verses placebo or usual care: RCTs
Figure 174. NAFLD progression; liver fat (%) determined by MRS, (adults), ≥12 months
Figure 175. NAFLD progression; NAFLD fibrosis score, (adults), ≥12 months
Figure 179. NAFLD progression; NAS, (adults), ≥12 months
Figure 181. ALT (U/l), (adults)
Figure 182. AST (U/l) (adults)
Figure 183. ALT (U/l) (children and young people), ≥3 months to <12 months
Figure 184. ALT (U/l) (children and young people), ≥12 months
Figure 185. Weight (kg) (adults), ≥12 months
Figure 186. Weight loss ≥5% (children and young people), 6 months
Figure 187. Final BMI levels (children and young people), 6 months
Figure 188. BMI reduction ≥5% (children and young people), 6 months
Figure 189. BMI (kg/m2) (children and young people) ≥12 months
Figure 191. Any adverse event (children and young people) Mild abdominal discomfort 6 months
K.7. Exercise interventions
K.8. Lifestyle modification
K.8.1. Lifestyle modification (any diet plus exercise plus behavioural modification) versus control (usual care) (RCTs)
K.8.2. Lifestyle modification (any diet plus exercise plus behavioural modification) versus control (usual care) (cohort study) >12 months
Figure 209. ALT (U/l, final values)
K.8.3. Diet and exercise versus control (usual care) (RCTs) >12 months
Figure 212. ALT (U/l, change scores)
Figure 213. AST (U/l, change score)
K.8.4. Diet and exercise versus control (Chen 2008: no control details, Ueno 1997: usual care) (cohort studies) <12 months
Figure 216. ALT (U/l, final values)
Figure 217. AST (U/l, final values)
Figure 218. NAFLD progression with fibroscan (0–3 severity scale, final values)
K.8.5. Diet and exercise versus exercise (RCTs) <12 months
Figure 220. ALT (U/l, change score)
Figure 221. AST (U/l, change score)
K.8.6. Diet and exercise versus exercise (cohort study) <12 months
Figure 224. ALT (U/l, final value)
K.8.7. Diet and exercise versus diet (RCTs) <12 months
K.9. Alcohol advice
K.9.1. Fibrosis progression
Figure 229. Heavy episodic drinking >1 a month (>60 g males/48 g females ethanol in one episode)
K.9.2. Presence of fatty liver disease
K.10. Caffeine advice
Figure 232. Presence of NAFLD determined by ultrasound
Figure 233. Coffee consumption in people with NAFLD vs controls
K.11. Pharmacological interventions
K.11.1. Pioglitazone versus placebo for adults with NAFLD
K.11.1.1. Progression of NAFLD (CRITICAL)
Figure 234. Decrease in fibrosis [>12 months]
Figure 235. Increase in fibrosis [> 12 months]
Figure 236. Improvement in fibrosis [>12 months]
Figure 237. Reduction in fibrosis score of ≥2 [≥3 months to <12 months]
Figure 238. Reduction in fibrosis [≥3 months to <12 months]
Figure 239. Decrease in steatosis [>12 months]
Figure 240. Increase in steatosis score [> 12 months]
Figure 241. Improvement in steatosis [>12 months]
Figure 242. Reduction in steatosis score of ≥2 [≥3 months to <12 months]
Figure 243. Decrease in hepatocellular injury [>12 months]
Figure 244. Increase in hepatocellular injury [>12 months]
Figure 245. Improvement in hepatocellular ballooning [>12 months]
Figure 246. Improvement in ballooning necrosis [≥3 months to <12 months]
Figure 247. Decrease in lobular inflammation [>12 months]
Figure 248. Increase in lobular inflammation [>12 months]
Figure 249. Improvement in lobular inflammation [>12 months]
Figure 250. Improvement in lobular inflammation [≥3 months to <12 months]
Figure 251. Decrease in portal inflammation [>12 months]
Figure 252. Increase in portal inflammation [>12 months]
Figure 253. Decrease in Mallory-Denk bodies [>12 months]
Figure 254. Increase in Mallory-Denk bodies [>12 months]
Figure 255. Improvement in histologic features of the liver [>12 months]
K.11.1.2. Serious adverse events (CRITICAL)
K.11.1.3. Liver function tests (IMPORTANT)
Figure 258. ALT levels – final values [>12 months]
Figure 259. ALT levels – final values [≥3 months to <12 months]
Figure 260. AST levels – final values [≥3 months to <12 months]
K.11.1.4. Adverse events (IMPORTANT)
K.11.2. Metformin versus placebo for adults with NAFLD
K.11.2.1. Progression of NAFLD (CRITICAL)
Figure 262. Proportion with improvement in NAFLD activity score [≥3 months to <12 months]
Figure 263. Proportion with improvement in fibrosis score [≥3 months to <12 months]
Figure 264. Proportion with improvement in steatosis [≥3 months to <12 months]
Figure 265. Proportion with improvement in lobular inflammation [≥3 months to <12 months]
Figure 266. Proportion with improvement in ballooning [≥3 months to <12 months]
K.11.3. Metformin versus placebo for children and young people with NAFLD
K.11.3.1. Progression of NAFLD (CRITICAL)
Figure 271. Change in NAFLD activity score [>12 months]
Figure 272. Change in fibrosis score [>12 months]
Figure 273. Change in steatosis score [>12 months]
Figure 274. Change in ballooning degeneration score [>12 months]
Figure 275. Change in lobular inflammation score [>12 months]
K.11.3.2. Quality of life (CRITICAL)
Figure 277. Change in parent-reported paediatric QOL-physical inventory [>12 months]
Figure 278. Change in children's self-reported paediatric QOL-physical inventory [>12 months]
Figure 279. Change in parent-reported paediatric QOL-psychosocial inventory [>12 months]
Figure 280. Change in children's self-reported paediatric QOL- psychosocial inventory [>12 months]
K.11.3.3. Liver function tests (IMPORTANT)
Figure 281. ALT levels [>12 months]
Figure 282. ALT levels [≥3 months to <12 months]
K.11.4. Vitamin E versus placebo for adults with NAFLD
K.11.4.1. Progression of NAFLD (CRITICAL)
Figure 285. Improvement in histologic features of the liver [>12 months]
Figure 286. Improvement in steatosis [>12 months]
Figure 287. Improvement in lobular inflammation [>12 months]
Figure 288. Improvement in hepatocellular ballooning [>12 months]
K.11.4.2. Serious adverse events (CRITICAL)
K.11.4.3. Mortality (CRITICAL)
K.11.4.4. Adverse events (IMPORTANT)
K.11.5. Vitamin E versus placebo for children and young people with NAFLD
K.11.5.1. Progression of NAFLD (CRITICAL)
Figure 294. Change in NAFLD activity score [>12 months]
Figure 295. Change in fibrosis score [>12 months]
Figure 296. Change in ballooning degeneration score [>12 months]
Figure 297. Change in lobular inflammation score [>12 months]
K.11.5.2. Quality of life (CRITICAL)
Figure 299. Change in parent-reported paediatric QOL-physical inventory [>12 months]
Figure 300. Change in children's self-reported paediatric QOL-physical inventory [>12 months]
Figure 301. Change in parent-reported paediatric QOL-psychosocial inventory [>12 months]
Figure 302. Change in children's self-reported paediatric QOL- psychosocial inventory [>12 months]
K.11.5.3. Liver function tests (IMPORTANT)
Figure 303. Change in ALT levels [>12 months]
K.11.6. Ursodeoxycholic acid (UCDA) versus placebo for adults with NAFLD
K.11.6.1. Progression of NAFLD (CRITICAL)
Figure 306. Change in NAFLD activity score [>12 months]
Figure 307. Change in fibrosis [>12 months]
Figure 308. Change in steatosis [>12 months]
Figure 309. Final steatosis values [>12 months]
Figure 310. Change in ballooning [>12 months]
K.11.7. Pentoxifylline versus placebo for adults with NAFLD
K.11.7.1. Progression of NAFLD (CRITICAL)
Figure 318. NAFLD activity score decreased by ≥2 points [>12 months]
Figure 319. Change in NAFLD activity score [>12 months]
Figure 320. Change in fibrosis [>12 months]
Figure 321. Change in steatosis [>12 months]
K.11.7.2. Liver function tests (IMPORTANT)
Figure 324. Normalisation in ALT levels [>12 months]
Figure 325. Change in ALT levels [>12 months]
Figure 326. Final ALT levels [≥3 months to <12 months]
Figure 327. Normalisation of AST levels [>12 months]
K.11.7.3. Adverse events (IMPORTANT)
K.11.8. Statins versus placebo for adults with NAFLD
K.11.8.1. Progression of NAFLD (CRITICAL)
Figure 331. Final fibrosis stage [>12 months]
K.11.8.2. Progression of NAFLD (CRITICAL)
K.11.9. Orlistat versus placebo for adults with NAFLD
K.11.9.1. Progression of NAFLD (CRITICAL)
Figure 336. ≥1 degree of improvement in fibrosis [≥3 months to <12 months]
Figure 337. Improved steatosis [≥3 months to <12 months]
Figure 338. Reversal of fatty liver [≥3 months to <12 months]
K.11.9.2. Liver function tests (IMPORTANT)
K.11.10. Pioglitazone versus Metformin for adults with NAFLD
K.11.10.1. Liver function tests (IMPORTANT)
K.11.11. Pioglitazone versus Vitamin E for adults with NAFLD
K.11.11.1. Progression of NAFLD (CRITICAL)
Figure 343. Improvement in histologic features of the liver [>12 months]
Figure 344. Improvement in steatosis [>12 months]
Figure 345. Improvement in lobular inflammation [>12 months]
Figure 346. Improvement in hepatocellular inflammation [>12 months]
K.11.11.2. Mortality (CRITICAL)
K.11.11.3. Serious adverse events (CRITICAL)
K.11.11.4. Adverse events (IMPORTANT)
K.11.12. Metformin versus Vitamin E for adults with NAFLD
K.11.12.1. Liver function tests (IMPORTANT)
K.11.13. Metformin versus Vitamin E for children and young people with NAFLD
K.11.13.1. Health related quality of life (CRITICAL)
Figure 353. Change in self-reported paediatric QoL Inventory (physical, 0-100) [>12 months]
Figure 354. Change in self-reported paediatric QoL Inventory (psychological 0-100) [>12 months]
K.11.13.2. Progression of NAFLD (CRITICAL)
Figure 357. Change in fibrosis score [>12 months]
Figure 358. Change in steatosis score [>12 months]
Figure 359. Change in lobular inflammation score [>12 months]
Figure 360. Change in ballooning degeneration score [>12 months]
Figure 361. Change in NAFLD activity score [>12 months
Figure 362. Resolution of NASH [>12 months]
Figure 363. Remission of NAFLD (ultrasound), Metformin 1g/day [<12 months]
Figure 364. Remission of NAFLD (ultrasound), Metformin 1.5g/day [<12 months]
K.11.13.3. Liver function tests (IMPORTANT)
Figure 365. Change in triglycerides [≥3 months to <12 months]
K.11.13.4. Adverse events (IMPORTANT)
K.11.14. Pentoxifylline versus Pioglitazone for adults with NAFLD
K.11.14.1. Progression of NAFLD (CRITICAL)
Figure 369. Final fibrosis stage [≥3 months to <12 months]
Figure 370. Final steatosis grade [≥3 months to <12 months]
Figure 371. Final hepatocellular ballooning [≥3 months to <12 months]
Figure 372. Final lobular inflammation [≥3 months to <12 months]
K.11.14.2. Liver function tests (IMPORTANT)
K.11.15. UDCA + Vitamin E versus UDCA alone for adults with NAFLD
K.11.15.1. Progression of NAFLD (CRITICAL)
K.11.16. UDCA + Vitamin E versus Placebo alone for adults with NAFLD
K.11.16.1. Progression of NAFLD (CRITICAL)
K.11.17. Orlistat + Vitamin E versus Vitamin E alone for adults with NAFLD
K.11.17.1. Liver function tests (IMPORTANT)
K.11.18. Pioglitazone + Vitamin E versus Vitamin E alone for adults with NAFLD
K.11.18.1. Liver function tests (IMPORTANT)
Figure 379. Normalisation of ALT levels [≥3 months to <12 months]
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