Background:

The CaRi-Heart® device estimates risk of 8-year cardiac death, using a prognostic model, which includes perivascular fat attenuation index, atherosclerotic plaque burden and clinical risk factors.

Objectives:

To provide an Early Value Assessment of the potential of CaRi-Heart Risk to be an effective and cost-effective adjunctive investigation for assessment of cardiac risk, in people with stable chest pain/suspected coronary artery disease, undergoing computed tomography coronary angiography. This assessment includes conceptual modelling which explores the structure and evidence about parameters required for model development, but not development of a full executable cost-effectiveness model.

Data sources:

Twenty-four databases, including MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process and EMBASE, were searched from inception to October 2022.

Methods:

Review methods followed published guidelines. Study quality was assessed using Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool. Results were summarised by research question: prognostic performance; prevalence of risk categories; clinical effects; costs of CaRi-Heart. Exploratory searches were conducted to inform conceptual cost-effectiveness modelling.

Results:

The only included study indicated that CaRi-Heart Risk may be predictive of 8 years cardiac death. The hazard ratio, per unit increase in CaRi-Heart Risk, adjusted for smoking, hypercholesterolaemia, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, Duke index, presence of high-risk plaque features and epicardial adipose tissue volume, was 1.04 (95% confidence interval 1.03 to 1.06) in the model validation cohort. Based on Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool, this study was rated as having high risk of bias and high concerns regarding its applicability to the decision problem specified for this Early Value Assessment. We did not identify any studies that reported information about the clinical effects or costs of using CaRi-Heart to assess cardiac risk.

Exploratory searches, conducted to inform the conceptual cost-effectiveness modelling, indicated that there is a deficiency with respect to evidence about the effects of changing existing treatments or introducing new treatments, based on assessment of cardiac risk (by any method), or on measures of vascular inflammation (e.g. fat attenuation index).

A de novo conceptual decision-analytic model that could be used to inform an early assessment of the cost effectiveness of CaRi-Heart is described. A combination of a short-term diagnostic model component and a long-term model component that evaluates the downstream consequences is anticipated to capture the diagnosis and the progression of coronary artery disease.

Limitations:

The rapid review methods and pragmatic additional searches used to inform this Early Value Assessment mean that, although areas of potential uncertainty have been described, we cannot definitively state where there are evidence gaps.

Conclusions:

The evidence about the clinical utility of CaRi-Heart Risk is underdeveloped and has considerable limitations, both in terms of risk of bias and applicability to United Kingdom clinical practice. There is some evidence that CaRi-Heart Risk may be predictive of 8-year risk of cardiac death, for patients undergoing computed tomography coronary angiography for suspected coronary artery disease. However, whether and to what extent CaRi-Heart represents an improvement relative to current standard of care remains uncertain.

The evaluation of the CaRi-Heart device is ongoing and currently available data are insufficient to fully inform the cost-effectiveness modelling.

Future work:

A large (n = 15,000) ongoing study, NCT05169333, the Oxford risk factors and non-invasive imaging study, with an estimated completion date of February 2030, may address some of the uncertainties identified in this Early Value Assessment.

Study registration:

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42022366496.

Funding:

This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Evidence Synthesis programme (NIHR award ref: NIHR135672) and is published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 28, No. 31. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

Article history

The research reported in this issue of the journal was commissioned and funded by the Evidence Synthesis Programme on behalf of NICE as award number NIHR135672. The protocol was agreed in October 2022. The draft manuscript began editorial review in December 2022 and was accepted for publication in September 2023. The authors have been wholly responsible for all data collection, analysis and interpretation, and for writing up their work. The HTA editors and publisher have tried to ensure the accuracy of the authors’ manuscript and would like to thank the reviewers for their constructive comments on the draft document. However, they do not accept liability for damages or losses arising from material published in this article.