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Guideline for the pharmacological treatment of hypertension in adults [Internet]. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2021.

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Guideline for the pharmacological treatment of hypertension in adults [Internet].

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WEB ANNEX ASummary of evidence

PICO question 1: At what level of blood pressure should pharmacological therapy be started to prevent cardiovascular events?

Systematic review for desirable and undesirable effects

Evidence was considered in respect of the following components (Table 1) to determine at what level of blood pressure pharmacological therapy should be started to prevent cardiovascular events (Tables 315).

Table 1Components for PICO question 1

PopulationInterventionComparisonOutcomeSubgroup
Adults suspected of or who have hypertension Specific systolic and diastolic blood pressure thresholds*:
-

Systolic (mm Hg):

-

≥120

-

≥130

-

≥140

-

≥150

-

Diastolic (mm Hg):

-

≥80

-

≥90

-

placebo

-

systolic or diastolic BP threshold that is higher than intervention thresholds

-

death (all-cause mortality)

-

cardiovascular death (death from MI, sudden cardiac death or stroke)

-

stroke

-

myocardial infarction

-

end-stage kidney disease

-

cognitive impairment/dementia

-

heart failure events

-

adverse effects

-

based on different effect modifiers such as:

-

estimated cardiovascular risk (pre-existing cad)

-

stroke

-

diabetes

-

age

-

sex

-

chronic kidney disease

-

race/ethnicity

Table 2Evidence profile 1a: Blood pressure lowering drugs compared to no treatment in patients with baseline systolic blood pressure 120–130 mmHg

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsBP-lowering drugsNo treatmentRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
All-cause mortality (follow up: range 0.25 months to 76 months; assessed with: Hong, 2018(1))
4randomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousanone141/4331 (3.3%)149/4298 (3.5%)

RR 0.95

(0.76 to 1.18)

2 fewer per 1000

(from 8 fewer to 6 more)

⨁⨁⨁⨁

HIGH

Cardiovascular mortality (follow up: range 0.25 months to 76 months; assessed with: Hong, 2018(1))
6randomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousanone58/3838 (1.5%)49/3819 (1.3%)

RR 1.18

(0.81 to 1.74)

2 more per 1000

(from 2 fewer to 9 more)

⨁⨁⨁⨁

HIGH

Stroke (follow up: range 0.25 months to 76 months; assessed with: Hong, 2018(1))
8randomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousbnone155/5327 (2.9%)198/5279 (3.8%)

RR 0.75

(0.56 to 1.01)

9 fewer per 1000

(from 17 fewer to 0 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁⨁

HIGH

Heart failure (follow up: range 0.25 months to 76 months; assessed with: Hong, 2018(1))
5randomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousanone45/3875 (1.2%)52/3849 (1.4%)

RR 0.91

(0.61 to 1.36)

1 fewer per 1000

(from 5 fewer to 5 more)

⨁⨁⨁⨁

HIGH

Myocardial infarction (follow up: range 0.25 months to 76 months; assessed with: Hong, 2018(1))
4randomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousseriouscnone46/1204 (3.8%)51/1207 (4.2%)

RR 0.91

(0.62 to 1.36)

4 fewer per 1000

(from 16 fewer to 15 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

End-stage kidney disease – not reported
Cognitive impairment – not reported
Serious adverse events – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio

Explanations

a

Using a threshold of 1% as a small but important difference, the CI is precise around the line of no effect;

b

The confidence interval of the absolute effect suggests the possibility of some benefit and no harm;

c

The absolute estimates suggest both important harm and benefit

Table 3Evidence profile 1b: Blood pressure lowering drugs compared to no treatment in patients with baseline systolic blood pressure 130-140 mmHg

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsBP-lowering drugsNo treatmentRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
All-cause mortality (follow up: range 0.25 months to 76 months; assessed with: Hong, 2018(1))
14randomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousanone3759/44 599 (7.9%)3904/44 254 (8.3%)

RR 0.98

(0.90 to 1.05)

2 fewer per 1000

(from 8 fewer to 4 more)

⨁⨁⨁⨁

HIGH

Cardiovascular mortality (follow up: range 0.25 months to 76 months; assessed with: Hong, 2018(1))
15randomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousanone2636/44 861 (5.3%)2697/44 911 (5.4%)

RR 0.98

(0.91 to 1.07)

1 fewer per 1000

(from 5 fewer to 4 more)

⨁⨁⨁⨁

HIGH

Stroke (follow up: range 0.25 months to 76 months; assessed with: Hong, 2018(1))
17randomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone1334/55 730 (2.6%)1510/55 765 (3.0%)

RR 0.88

(0.76 to 1.01)

4 fewer per 1000

(from 7 fewer to 0 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁⨁

HIGH

Heart failure (follow up: range 0.25 months to 76 months; assessed with: Hong, 2018(1))
12randomized trialsnot seriousseriousbnot seriousnot seriousnone1992/44 536 (4.6%)2203/44 182 (5.1%)

RR 0.90

(0.82 to 0.98)

5 fewer per 1000

(from 9 fewer to 1 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Myocardial infarction (follow up: range 0.25 months to 76 months; assessed with: Hong, 2018(1))
15randomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousanone2131/44 584 (4.3%)2386/44 632 (4.8%)

RR 0.92

(0.83 to 1.02)

4 fewer per 1000

(from 8 fewer to 1 more)

⨁⨁⨁⨁

HIGH

End-stage kidney disease – not reported
Cognitive impairment – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio

Explanations

a

Using a threshold of 1% as a small but important difference, the CI is precise around the line of no effect

b

Unexplained inconsistency exists between the studies.

Table 4Evidence profile 1c: Blood pressure lowering drugs compared to no treatment in patients with baseline systolic blood pressure 120-140 mmHg

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsBP-lowering drugsNo treatmentRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Mortality (follow up: range 0.25 months to 76 months; assessed with: Hong, 2018(1))
20randomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousanone3936/55 930 (7.6%)4053/55 552 (7.9%)

RR 0.97

(0.91 to 1.04)

2 fewer per 1000

(from 7 fewer to 3 more)

⨁⨁⨁⨁

HIGH

Cardiovascular mortality (follow up: range 0.25 months to 76 months; assessed with: Hong, 2018(1))
22randomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousanone2694/55 699 (5.0%)2746/55 730 (5.1%)

RR 0.99

(0.92 to 1.07)

1 fewer per 1000

(from 4 fewer to 4 more)

⨁⨁⨁⨁

HIGH

Stroke (follow up: range 0.25 months to 76 months; assessed with: Hong, 2018(1))
28randomized trialsnot seriousseriousbnot seriousnot seriousnone1772/55 913 (3.0%)1995/55 949 (3.3%)

RR 0.86

(0.78 to 0.96)

5 fewer per 1000

(from 7 fewer to 1 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Heart failure (follow up: range 0.25 months to 76 months; assessed with: Hong, 2018(1))
17randomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone2037/44 411 (4.3%)2255/44 031 (4.8%)

RR 0.90

(0.83 to 0.97)

5 fewer per 1000

(from 8 fewer to 1 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁⨁

HIGH

Adverse events leading to discontinuation of the treatment (follow up: range 0.25 months to 76 months; assessed with: Hong, 2018(1))
8randomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone2262/11 867 (11.4%)1758/11 221 (9.1%)

RR 1.35

(1.06 to 1.72)

32 more per 1000

(from 5 more to 66 more)

⨁⨁⨁⨁

HIGH

Myocardial infarction (follow up: range 0.25 months to 76 months; assessed with: Hong, 2018(1))
19randomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousanone2177/55 788 (4.3%)2437/55 839 (4.8%)

RR 0.92

(0.84 to 1.01)

4 fewer per 1000

(from 8 fewer to 0 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁⨁

HIGH

End-stage kidney disease – not reported
Cognitive impairment – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio

Explanations

a

Using a threshold of 1% as a small but important difference, the CI is precise around the line of no effect.

b

Unexplained inconsistency exists between the included studies.

Table 5Evidence profile 1d: Blood pressure lowering drugs compared to no treatment in patients with baseline systolic blood pressure 140-159 mmHg

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsBP-lowering drugsNo treatmentRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Mortality (follow up: median 4.4 years; assessed with: Sundstrom 2015(2))
9randomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone260/7337 (3.5%)322/7090 (4.5%)

OR 0.79

(0.67 to 0.94)

9 fewer per 1000

(from 15 fewer to 3 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁⨁

HIGH

Cardiovascular mortality (follow up: median 4.4 years; assessed with: Sundstrom 2015(2))
6randomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousseriousanone90/2859 (3.1%)114/2666 (4.3%)

OR 0.77

(0.58 to 1.02)

10 fewer per 1000

(from 18 fewer to 1 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Stroke (follow up: median 4.4 years; assessed with: Sundstrom 2015(2))
8randomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousbnone90/5880 (1.5%)109/5722 (1.9%)

OR 0.82

(0.62 to 1.09)

3 fewer per 1000

(from 7 fewer to 2 more)

⨁⨁⨁⨁

HIGH

Heart failure (follow up: median 4.4 years; assessed with: Sundstrom 2015(2))
5randomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousseriousanone59/2588 (2.3%)71/2585 (2.7%)

OR 0.81

(0.58 to 1.16)

5 fewer per 1000

(from 11 fewer to 4 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Myocardial infarction – not reported
End-stage kidney disease – not reported
Cognitive impairment – not reported
Serious adverse events – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; OR: Odds ratio

Explanations

a

The 95% CI crosses the threshold of a small but important benefit in one extreme, and suggests lack of important harm in the other.

b

The CI is precise around the null effect.

Table 6Evidence profile 1e: Treatment compared to no treatment in patients with baseline BP 130–140 without CAD

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsTreatmentNo treatmentRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
All-cause mortality (follow up: mean 4.5 years; assessed with: Brunstrom, 2019(3))
12randomized trialsseriousa,bnot seriousnot seriouscnot seriousdnone2107/22 219 (8.0%)2099/22 257 (8.0%)

RR 1.00

(0.95 to 1.06)

0 fewer per 1000

(from 4 fewer to 5 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

MACE (follow up: mean 4.5 years; assessed with: Brunsrtom, 2019(3))
9randomized trialsseriousa,bnot seriousnot seriouscnot seriousdnone2379/22 741 (10.0%)2366/22 805 (9.9%)

RR 1.01

(0.96 to 1.06)

1 more per 1000

(from 4 fewer to 6 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Cardiovascular mortality (follow up: mean 4.5 years; assessed with: Brunstrom, 2019(3))
8randomized trialsseriousa,bnot seriousnot seriouscnot seriousdnone2390/44 685 (4.8%)1163/22 862 (4.7%)

RR 1.07

(0.95 to 1.21)

3 more per 1000

(from 2 fewer to 10 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Myocardial infarction (follow up: mean 4.5 years; assessed with: Brunstrom, 2019(3))
8randomized trialsseriousa,bnot seriousnot seriouscnot seriousdnone1092/44 682 (2.3%)540/22 372 (2.3%)

RR 1.03

(0.91 to 1.15)

1 more per 1000

(from 2 fewer to 3 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Stroke (follow up: mean 4.5 years; assessed with: Brunstrom, 2019(3))
9randomized trialsseriousa,bnot seriousnot seriouscnot seriousdnone1536/44 546 (3.2%)803/22 170 (3.5%)

RR 0.89

(0.73 to 1.09)

4 fewer per 1000

(from 9 fewer to 3 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Heart failure (follow up: mean 4.5 years; assessed with: Brunstrom, 2019(3))
6randomized trialsseriousa,bnot seriousnot seriouscnot seriousdnone1903/44 881 (4.2%)1003/22 472 (4.5%)

RR 0.90

(0.81 to 1.00)

4 fewer per 1000

(from 8 fewer to 0 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Discontinuation due to adverse events (follow up: mean 4.5 years; assessed with: Brunstrom, 2019(3))
8randomized trialsseriousaseriousenot seriouscnot seriousnone1917/11 249 (10.5%)1585/11 651 (9.0%)

RR 1.23

(1.03 to 1.47)

21 more per 1000

(from 3 more to 42 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Hypotension related adverse events (follow up: mean 4.5 years; assessed with: Brunstrom, 2019(3))
6randomized trialsseriousaseriousfnot seriouscnot seriousnone5141/44 058 (11.7%)2245/22 038 (10.2%)

RR 1.71

(1.32 to 2.22)

72 more per 1000

(from 33 more to 124 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Discontinuation due to renal impairment (follow up: mean 4.5 years; assessed with: Brunstrom, 2019(3))
8randomized trialsseriousa,bnot seriousnot seriouscnot seriousdnone992/44 627 (2.0%)457/22 831 (1.8%)

RR 1.20

(0.93 to 1.55)

4 more per 1000

(from 1 fewer to 10 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Dementia – not reported
End-stage kidney disease – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio

Explanations

a

According to the authors’ assessment, the studies that contributed most of the weight for this outcome had unclear and or risk of bias in some of the domains..

b

For this assessment, we did not consider the judgements of unclear outcome assessment risk of bias judgment that the author’s made.

c

The results were very similar when excluding trials in people with diabetes, trials of dual renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAAS) inhibition, trials not reaching <130mm Hg in the intervention group, trials of previously treated/hypertensive patients, and trials of treatment of naïve patients. Therefore, these results are likely to be applicable to the general population.

d

Although the 95% confidence interval crosses the line of no effect, the absolute effect estimate is precise as it suggests the possibility of a trivial benefit in one extreme and a trivial harm in the other

e

The point estimates show different directions and magnitude of effect, and not all confidence intervals overlap. The I square is 81.7% and the p value of the chi square test for heterogeneity is statistically significant.

f

The point estimates suggest importantly different magnitudes of effect and not all confidence intervals overlap. The I square is 90.3%, and the p value of the chi square test for heterogeneity is statistically significant.

Table 7Evidence profile 1f: Blood pressure lowering drugs compared to no treatment in patients with baseline systolic blood pressure 130–140 mmHg and CAD

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsBP-lowering drugsNo treatmentRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
All-cause mortality (CAD studies) (follow up: mean 4.5 years; assessed with: Brunstrom, 2019(3))
6randomized trialsseriousa,bnot seriousnot seriouscnot seriousnone1490/11 025 (7.8%)1650/11 024 (8.7%)

RR 0.91

(0.83 to 0.99)

8 fewer per 1000

(from 15 fewer to 1 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

MACE (CAD studies) (follow up: mean 4.5 years; assessed with: Brunstrom, 2019(3))
6randomized trialsseriousa,bnot seriousnot seriouscnot seriousnone2024/11 025 (10.6%)2374/11 024 (12.5%)

RR 0.85

(0.77 to 0.94)

19 fewer per 1000

(from 29 fewer to 7 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Cardiovascular mortality (CAD studies) (follow up: mean 4.5 years; assessed with: Brunstrom, 2019(3))
5randomized trialsseriousa,bnot seriousnot seriouscnot seriousdnone1802/33 589 (4.8%)973/11 793 (5.2%)

RR 0.86

(0.74 to 1.00)

7 fewer per 1000

(from 13 fewer to 0 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Myocardial infarction (CAD studies) (follow up: mean 4.5 years; assessed with: Brunstrom, 2019(3))
5randomized trialsseriousa,bnot seriousnot seriouscnot seriousnone2367/22 893 (7.9%)1076/11 933 (7.2%)

RR 0.83

(0.72 to 0.97)

12 fewer per 1000

(from 20 fewer to 2 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Stroke (CAD studies) (follow up: mean 4.5 years; assessed with: Brunstrom, 2019(3))
6randomized trialsseriousa,bnot seriousnot seriouscnot seriousnone943/33 049 (2.5%)532/11 024 (2.8%)

RR 0.79

(0.66 to 0.94)

6 fewer per 1000

(from 10 fewer to 2 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Heart failure (CAD studies) (follow up: mean 4.5 years; assessed with: Brunstrom, 2019(3))
5randomized trialsseriousa,bnot seriousnot seriouscnot seriousnone412/11 796 (2.2%)545/11 793 (2.9%)

RR 2.05

(1.62 to 2.61)

30 more per 1000

(from 18 more to 47 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Discontinuation due to adverse events (CAD studies) (follow up: mean 4.5 years; assessed with: Brunstrom, 2019(3))
5randomized trialsseriousa,bseriousenot seriouscnot seriousnone1321/11 796 (7.0%)622/11 793 (3.3%)

RR 2.05

(1.62 to 2.61)

35 more per 1000

(from 21 more to 53 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Hypotension related adverse events (CAD studies) (follow up: mean 4.5 years; assessed with: Brunstrom, 2019(3))
5randomized trialsseriousa,bseriousfnot seriouscnot seriousnone793/22 817 (2.8%)341/11 421 (2.4%)

RR 1.63

(1.01 to 2.63)

15 more per 1000

(from 0 fewer to 39 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Discontinuation due to renal impairment (CAD studies) (follow up: mean 4.5 years; assessed with: Brunstrom, 2019(3))
1randomized trialsseriousa,bnot seriousnot seriouscnot seriousdnone20/6107 (0.3%)16/6108 (0.3%)

RR 1.25

(0.65 to 2.41)

1 more per 1000

(from 1 fewer to 4 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Cognitive impairment – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio

Explanations

a

According to the authors’ assessment, the studies that contributed most of the weight for this outcome had unclear and or risk of bias in some of the domains.

b

For this assessment, we did not consider the judgments of unclear outcome assessment risk of bias judgment that the author’s made.

c

The results were very similar when excluding trials in people with diabetes, trials of dual renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAAS) inhibition, trials not reaching <130mm Hg in the intervention group, trials of previously treated/hypertensive patients, and trials of treatment naïve patients. Therefore, these results are likely to be applicable to the general population.

d

Although the 95% confidence interval crosses the line of no effect, the absolute effect estimate is precise as it suggests the possibility of a trivial benefit in one extreme and a trivial harm in the other.

e

The point estimates show different directions and magnitude of effect, and not all confidence intervals overlap. The I square is 79.0% and the p value of the chi square test for heterogeneity is statistically significant.

f

The point estimates show different directions and magnitude of effect, and not all confidence intervals overlap. The I square is 85.9% and the p value of the chi square test for heterogeneity is statistically significant.

Table 8Evidence profile 1g: Blood pressure lowering drugs compared to no treatment in patients with baseline systolic blood pressure <140 mmHg and diabetes

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsBP-lowering drugsNo treatmentRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
All-cause mortality (follow up: mean 3.7 years; assessed with: Brunstrom, 2016(4))
14randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousseriousbnone c 582/7652 (7.6%)c

RR 1.05

(0.95 to 1.16)

4 more per 1000

(from 4 fewer to 12 more)c

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Cardiovascular mortality (follow up: mean 3.7 years; assessed with: Brunstrom, 2016(4))
10randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone c 307/7855 (3.9%)c

RR 1.15

(1.00 to 1.32)

6 more per 1000

(from 0 fewer to 13 more)c

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Myocardial infarction (follow up: mean 3.7 years; assessed with: Brunstrom, 2016(4))
9randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousseriousbnone c 377/8579 (4.4%)c

RR 1.00

(0.87 to 1.15)

0 fewer per 1000

(from 6 fewer to 7 more)c

⨁⨁◯◯

LOWc

Stroke (follow up: mean 3.7 years; assessed with: Brunstrom, 2016(4))
8randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousseriousbnone c 230/8579 (2.7%)c

RR 0.87

(0.79 to 0.96)

3 fewer per 1000

(from 6 fewer to 1 fewer)c

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Heart failure (follow up: median 3.7 years; assessed with: Brunstrom, 2016(4))
8randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousseriousbnone c 426/7625 (5.6%)c

RR 0.90

(0.79 to 1.02)

6 fewer per 1000

(from 12 fewer to 1 more)c

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

End-stage kidney disease (follow up: mean 3.7 years; assessed with: Brunstrom, 2016(4))
7randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone c 157/7382 (2.1%)c

RR 0.97

(0.80 to 1.17)

1 fewer per 1000

(from 4 fewer to 4 more)c

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Cognitive impairment – not reported
Serious adverse events – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio

Explanations

a

All studies were judged to have unclear or high risk of bias in at least one domain

b

The CI crosses the line of no effect.

c

There are no absolute numbers reported in the systematic review. However, we abstracted the baseline risk from the 5 largest primary studies for each outcome.

Table 9Evidence profile 1h: Blood pressure lowering drugs compared to no treatment in patients with baseline systolic blood pressure 140–150 mmHg and diabetes

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsBP-lowering drugsNo treatmentRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
All-cause mortality (follow up: mean 3.7 years; assessed with: Brunstrom, 2016(4))
10randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone b 1427/11 430 (9.9%)b

RR 0.87

(0.78 to 0.98)

13 fewer per 1000

(from 22 fewer to 2 fewer)b

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Cardiovascular mortality (follow up: mean 3.7 years; assessed with: Brunstrom, 2016(4))
9randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousseriouscnone b 841/11 430 (5.8%)b

RR 0.87

(0.71 to 1.05)

8 fewer per 1000

(from 17 fewer to 3 more)b

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Myocardial infarction (follow up: mean 3.7 years; assessed with: Brunstrom, 2016(4))
7randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone b 1216/11 430 (8.4%)b

RR 0.84

(0.76 to 0.93)

13 fewer per 1000

(from 20 fewer to 6 fewer)b

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Stroke (follow up: median 3.7 years; assessed with: Brunstrom, 2016(4))
9randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousseriouscnone b 658/11 430 (4.6%)b

RR 0.92

(0.83 to 1.01)

4 fewer per 1000

(from 8 fewer to 0 fewer)b

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Heart failure (follow up: mean 3.7 years; assessed with: Brunstrom, 2016(4))
7randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone b 522/8859 (5.9%)b

RR 0.80

(0.66 to 0.97)

12 fewer per 1000

(from 20 fewer to 2 fewer)b

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

End-stage kidney disease (follow up: mean 3.7 years; assessed with: Brunstrom, 2016(4))
6randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousseriouscnone b 41/9809 (0.4%)b

RR 0.91

(0.74 to 1.12)

0 fewer per 1000

(from 1 fewer to 1 more)b

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Cognitive impairment – not reported
Serious adverse events – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio

Explanations

a

All included studies were judged at a high or unclear risk of bias in at least one domain

b

Absolute numbers are not reported in the systematic review. However, we abstracted the baseline risk from the 5 largest primary studies.

c

The confidence interval crosses the line of no effect

Table 10Evidence profile 1i: Blood pressure lowering drugs compared to no treatment in patients with baseline systolic blood pressure >150 mmHg and diabetes

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsBP-lowering drugsNo treatmentRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
All-cause mortality (follow up: mean 3.7 years; assessed with: Brunstrom, 2016(4))
16randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone b 434/3023 (14.4%)b

RR 0.89

(0.80 to 0.99)

16 fewer per 1000

(from 29 fewer to 1 fewer)b

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Cardiovascular mortality (follow up: mean 3.7 years; assessed with: Brunstrom, 2016(4))
11randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone b 179/2154 (8.3%)b

RR 0.75

(0.57 to 0.99)

21 fewer per 1000

(from 36 fewer to 1 fewer)b

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Myocardial infarction (follow up: mean 3.7 years; assessed with: Brunstrom, 2016(4))
13randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone b 195/2454 (7.9%)b

RR 0.74

(0.63 to 0.87)

21 fewer per 1000

(from 29 fewer to 10 fewer)b

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Stroke (follow up: mean 3.7 years; assessed with: Brunstrom, 2016(4))
15randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone b 152/2454 (6.2%)b

RR 0.77

(0.65 to 0.91)

14 fewer per 1000

(from 22 fewer to 6 fewer)b

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Heart failure (follow up: mean 3.7 years; assessed with: Brunstrom, 2016(4))
7randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousseriouscnone b 151/1152 (13.1%)b

RR 0.73

(0.53 to 1.01)

35 fewer per 1000

(from 62 fewer to 1 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

End-stage kidney disease (follow up: mean 3.7 years; assessed with: Brunstrom, 2016(4))
5randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone b 302/1721 (17.5%)b

RR 0.82

(0.71 to 0.94)

32 fewer per 1000

(from 51 fewer to 11 fewer)b

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Cognitive impairment – not reported
Serious adverse events – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio

Explanations

a

All studies were judged at unclear or high risk of bias in at least one domain

b

Absolute numbers were not reported in the systematic review. However, we abstracted the baseline risk from the 5 largest trials.

c

The confidence interval crosses the line of no effect.

Table 11Evidence profile 1j: Blood pressure lowering drugs compared to no treatment in patients with baseline systolic blood pressure <120 mmHg and a history of stroke or transient ischemic attack

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsBP-lowering drugsNo treatmentRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Recurrent stroke (assessed with: Zonneveld, 2018(5))
1randomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousseriousanone12/174 (6.9%)12/176 (6.8%)

RR 1.01

(0.47 to 2.19)

1 more per 1000

(from 36 fewer to 81 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Major cardiovascular event – not reported
All-cause mortality – not reported
Heart failure – not reported
Serious adverse events – not reported
Cardiovascular mortality – not reported
Cognitive impairment – not reported
Myocardial infarction – not reported
End-stage kidney disease – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio

Explanations

a

The 95% CI suggests important benefit and important harm. The total number of patients included is small and the optimal information size is not met.

Table 12Evidence profile 1k: Blood pressure lowering drugs compared to no treatment in patients with baseline systolic blood pressure 120–139 mmHg and a history of stroke or transient ischemic attack

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsBP-lowering drugsNo treatmentRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Recurrent stroke (assessed with: Zonneveld, 2018(5))
1randomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousseriousanone95/898 (10.6%)109/998 (10.9%)

RR 0.86

(0.67 to 1.12)

15 fewer per 1000

(from 36 fewer to 13 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Mortality – not reported
Cardiovascular mortality – not reported
Myocardial infarction – not reported
End-stage kidney disease – not reported
Cognitive impairment – not reported
Heart failure – not reported
Serious adverse events – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio

Explanations

a

The confidence interval suggests the possibility of important benefit and important harm.

Table 13Evidence profile 1l: Blood pressure lowering drugs compared to no treatment in patients with baseline systolic blood pressure 140-159 mmHg and a history of stroke or transient ischemic attack

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsBP-lowering drugsNo treatmentRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Recurrent stroke (assessed with: Zonneveld, 2018(5))
2randomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone115/1275 (9.0%)164/1290 (12.7%)

RR 0.71

(0.57 to 0.89)

37 fewer per 1000

(from 55 fewer to 14 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁⨁

HIGH

Mortality – not reported
Cardiovascular mortality – not reported
Myocardial infarction – not reported
End-stage kidney disease – not reported
Cognitive impairment – not reported
Heart failure – not reported
Serious adverse events – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio

Explanations

None

Table 14Evidence profile 1m: Blood pressure lowering drugs compared to no treatment in patients with baseline systolic blood pressure >160 mmHg and a history of stroke or transient ischemic attack

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsBP-lowering drugsNo treatmentRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Recurrent stroke (assessed with: Zonneveld, 2018(5))
3randomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone132/987 (13.4%)198/967 (20.5%)

RR 0.65

(0.51 to 0.83)

72 fewer per 1000

(from 100 fewer to 35 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁⨁

HIGH

Mortality – not reported
Cardiovascular mortality – not reported
Myocardial infarction – not reported
End-stage kidney disease – not reported
Cognitive impairment – not reported
Heart failure – not reported
Serious adverse events – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio

Explanations

None

Evidence to decision for PICO question 1

Values and preferences

Fragasso, 2012(6): Quality of life on antihypertensive therapy is an important issue because clinicians are asked to initiate drug therapy in mostly asymptomatic patients, who are never happy to become instead symptomatic due to drug prescription.

Risso, 2015(7): From a patient perspective, HTN is often a silent disease and patients may not take antihypertensive medications as directed because their positive effects are not as obvious as potential side-effects from the medications.

Resources required

Gu, 2015(8): If the Chinese government systematically screened adults aged 35–84 years for hypertension, it would require an investment of about International Dollars 962 million (RMB 3.4 billion) in 2015 to screen adults unaware of an existing HTN diagnosis, and about International Dollars 65 billion annually (RMB 231 billion) to screen adults currently without HTN and all persons becoming 35 years of age after 2015 for incidence of HTN during 2015 to 2025.

Cost effectiveness

Richman and colleagues conducted a trial-based economic evaluation incorporating the effect estimates for treatment effects and adverse event rates from the SPRINT trial in a Markov model.(9) They compared intensive BP management (SBP <120 mmHg) with standard (SBP <140 mmHg) among 68-year-old high-risk adults with HTN but not diabetes. Model inputs were obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Life Table: Projected age- and cause-specific mortality, calibrated to rates reported in SPRINT. Population-based observational data was used for heart failure, MI, stroke and subsequent mortality. Utilities were obtained based on EQ-5D scores from a nationally representative sample. Costs were based on published sources. The base case ICER was USD 23 777 per QALY. The results were robust, ICERs with sensitivity analyses changing parameter inputs several-fold were < USD 50 000.

Howard(10) and colleagues constructed a cost-effectiveness study of screening and optimal management of HTN and diabetes and chronic kidney disease in an Australian setting. They found that an intensive management of previously uncontrolled HTN compared with usual care resulted in an ICER of AUD 2588. They do not specify the target BP for the comparisons.

Equity

Meiqari, 2019(11): Barriers in access to HTN care in low-income settings include low patient health literacy and limited resources.

Acceptability

Shahaj, 2019(12): Deliberately choosing to avoid or reduce medication (intentional nonadherence), rather than forgetfulness, was a theme in some studies. For some patients, symptoms acted as a guide for the seriousness of their HTN and guided their medication use; for example, they stopped treatment if symptoms disappeared. Some were guided by stress, using medication to manage worry or anxiety rather than HTN. Fear of dependency affected the amount of medication they took.

Shahaj, 2019(12): Differences between clinicians’ and patients’ beliefs were potential sources of confusion and mistrust and were related to both cultural and individual beliefs (e.g. perceptions of symptoms, and treatment expectations).

Feasibility

Kuate, 2019(13): In Cameroon, many individuals’ HTN was untreated and uncontrolled. This may also reflect the high burden of undiagnosed HTN. The latter is consistent with enduring constraints in access to quality and affordable health care, poor public health facilities network coverage, scarcity of health professionals, frequent disruption of the supply of NCD drugs, very limited access to inexpensive and/or essential medicines, limited HTN knowledge among health professionals and patients, and poor adherence to medication among hypertensive patients under treatment.

Meiqari, 2019(11): Many barriers in access to HTN care in low-income settings are due to overburdened health care providers; the lack of an organizational structure to accommodate a nonphysician as a primary care provider; the lack of confidence and/or policy towards the nonphysician providers’ ability to manage uncomplicated and stable patients; and the lack of infrastructure for data collection and monitoring of clinical information on a periodic basis.

Gu, 2015(8): While China rapidly expanded health insurance coverage nationally within the past decade, many Chinese adults still have limited access to HTN screening and follow up for HTN treatment and monitoring. For example, in the New Rural Cooperative Medical Scheme, which now covers over 95% of the rural population, most coverage is for inpatient hospitalizations, and the costs of basic medical services, including HTN education, screening, treatment, and monitoring, are not usually covered.

Outcome utilities See Table 15 below.

Table 15Utilities per outcome for PICO question 1

OutcomesUtilitySystematic reviewPrimary studies reported in the SR
Hypertension 0.96Ren 2020(14)Li 2015(15)
0.98 (range: 1–0.95)Kawalec 2015(16)Burstrom 2001(17), Sullivan 2008(18), Wang 2008(19)
Type 2 diabetes mellitus 0.985Gad 2020(20)Salomon 2012(21)
MACE Time NR: All CVD excluding stroke: 0.73 (95%CI: 0.69–0.76)Kawalec 2015(16)Lunde, 2013(22)
Stroke First month after onset: 0.55Ren 2020(14)Li 2015(15)
Days 1–3: 0.70Gu 2015(8)Salomon 2012(21)
Days 4–28: 0.88Gu 2015(8)Salomon 2012(21)
Chronic state: 0.65Ren 2020(14)Huang 2017(23)
Time NR: 0.70 (95%CI: 0.67-0.73)Kawalec 2015(16)Golicki 2010(24)
MI First month after onset: 0.60Ren 2020(14)Li 2015(15)
Days 1–3: 0.58Gu 2015(8)Salomon 2012(21)
Days 4–28: 0.94Gu 2015(8)Salomon 2012(21)
Chronic state: 0.70Ren 2020(14)Huang 2017(23)
Time NR: Disability weight 0.124Gad 2020(20)Salomon 2012(21)
ESRD ESRD pre-dialysis: 0.73 (95% CI: 0.62–1)Cooper 2020(25)Jesky 2016(26)
Hemodialysis: 0.75 (SD: 0.25)Cooper 2020(25)Briggs 2016(27)
Cognitive impairment/dementia Patient rating: 0.85 (SD: 0.19)NARowen 2015(28)

Patient rating:

mild dementia 0.79 (SD: 0.22)

moderate dementia: 0.72 (0.23)

NAOrgeta 2015(29)

Carer rating:

mild dementia 0.63 (SD: 0.27)

moderate dementia: 0.52 (0.27)

NAOrgeta 2015(29)
HF events First month after onset: 0.63Ren 2020(14)Li 2015(15)
Chronic state: 0.73Ren 2020(14)Huang 2017(23)
Time NR: 0.79Gad 2020(20)Salomon 2012(21)
Adverse events Common: 0.88Gu 2015(8)Clinical Judgement
Infrequent: 0.70Gu 2015(8)Salomon 2012(21)

PICO question 2: Is any laboratory testing necessary prior to initiation or during titration of pharmacological treatments?

Systematic review for desirable and undesirable effects

Background information

Prevalence of secondary HTN – There is limited data on community prevalence of secondary HTN (one study(30) that estimated primary and secondary HTN in a random population sample published in 1976 investigated those with a BP >175/115 mmHg on treatment – not relevant any more). Review articles commonly quote a prevalence of 5–10% in the general population.(31) Several studies assess the prevalence of secondary HTN in referral HTN clinics (patients referred for evaluation for secondary HTN) to be ~10%. Prevalence varies based on the population and included causes of secondary HTN (for example – obstructive sleep apnoea was considered as a cause in some studies, not others). Prevalence in the general population is significantly less than in these select population samples.

  • In one prospective study, the prevalence was 9.1% among 1020 hypertensive patients visiting an outpatient clinic in Japan.(32)
  • 10.2% in 4429 consecutively referred patients to a HTN clinic (to evaluate for secondary HTN) (33)
  • In a study of consecutive patients evaluated in outpatient HTN clinics in Sao Paulo, Brazil, 32% had severe sleep apnoea, 5.6% had primary hyperaldosteronism, 2.4% had renal artery stenosis, 1.6% had eGFR <30 ml/min.(34)
  • A meta-analysis of 20 observational studies and four RCTs with a total sample size of 991 035 estimated the prevalence of apparent treatment-resistant HTN in the observational studies to be 13.7% (95% CI, 11.2%–16.2%).(35)

Prevalence of comorbidities and end organ damage (e.g. DM, CVD, HF, cerebrovascular disease, CKD among patients with HTN); prevalence of CVD risk factors (e.g. hyperlipidaemia)

  • HTN and insulin resistance have a common causal mechanism resulting in a high prevalence of DM in patients with HTN. An analysis of the 2011–2014 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey(36) revealed DM in 27.3% of hypertensive adults. Other comorbidities in individuals with HTN included hyperlipidaemia (55.9%), coronary heart disease (16.7%), renal disease (11.2%), heart rhythm disorders (6%), stroke (4.7%) and congestive heart failure (2.1%). A cross-sectional study of a sample of hypertensive patients recruited from three different university hospitals in Lebanon revealed a prevalence of diabetes of 27%.(37)
  • From the 2020 AHA update of heart disease and stroke statistics(35)– in a meta-analysis including 95 772 US females and 30 555 US Males, each 10 mmHg higher SBP was associated with an effect size (RR or HR) for CVD of 1.25 (95% CI, 1.18–1.32) among females and 1.15 (95% CI, 1.1–1.19) for males; RR for CVD mortality was 1.16 among females and 1.17 among males.
  • From the 2020 AHA update of heart disease and stroke statistics(35)– increased risk of heart failure (multivariable-adjusted HR, 1.86 (95%CI, 1.51-2.3).
  • From the 2020 AHA update of heart disease and stroke statistics(35) – SBP/DBP ≥140/90 mmHg was associated with an OR for stroke of 2.98 (95% CI 2.72-3.28).

Adverse events after treatment (hyperkalaemia and AKI) – some of this may already be in the evidence profiles for PICO 4 and 5.

  • A meta-analysis of randomized trials(38) documented discontinuation for adverse events attributed to different classes of antihypertensive drugs. They do not give specifics of adverse effects, just report on the percentage discontinuation. In this review, the probability of discontinuation over five years was 1.7% for centrally acting drugs, 2.9% for beta-blockers, 3.6% for diuretics, 7.7% for CCBs, 13.1% for ACEis and 15% for ARBs. The caveat is that the trials for centrally acting drugs, beta-blockers and diuretics are older and did not have other medications at baseline. Rate of discontinuation increased with increasing number of baseline drugs.
  • Rates of individual adverse effects are probably best obtained for specific drugs.
  • Of note, a recently published N-or-1 trial of statin, placebo or no treatment, found that 90% of symptom burden elicited by statins was also elicited by placebo.(39) May be relevant when considering disutility of taking pills. 25

Table 16Components for PICO question 2

StudyStudy populationPrevalence of secondary HTN
Berglund, 1976(30) Among patients with BP>175/115:
-

40/689 (6%)

Rimoldi, 2013(31) Among general HTN patients:
-

5–10%

Omura, 2004(32) Among hypertensive outpatients:
-

93/1020 (9.1%)

Anderson, 1994(33) among HTN patients sent for referral to investigate secondary HTN:
-

452/4429 (10.2%)

Pedrosa, 2011(34) Among patients with resistant HTN:
-

OSA: 80/125 (64.0%)

-

Severe OSA: 40/125 (32%)

-

Plasma aldosterone/renin >20: 14/125 (11.2%) (primary aldosteronism was confirmed in only 7 patients)

-

Renal artery stenosis screening test: 13/125 (10.4%) (renal artery stenosis was confirmed in 3 patients)

Virani 2020(35) From the 2020 AHA update of heart disease and stroke statistics
-

Among resistant HTN

-

A meta-analysis of 20 observational studies and 4 RCTs with a total sample size of 99 1035 estimated the prevalence of apparent treatment-resistant HTN in the observational studies to be 13.7% (95% CI, 11.2%–16.2%)

Park, 2017(36) Among patients with HTN:
-

No comorbidities: 4073/26 049 (14%)

-

One comorbidity: 6135/26 049 (23%)

-

Two comorbidities: 6310/26 049 (24.4%)

-

Three or more comorbidities: 9531/26 049 (38.7%)

-

Hyperlipidemia: 55.9%

-

Diabetes mellitus: 27.3%

-

Rheumatoid arthritis: 26.8%

-

Depression: 24.9%

-

Chronic pulmonary disease: 16.9%

-

CHD: 16.7%

-

Hypothyroidism: 12.5%

-

Renal disease: 11.2%

-

Heart rhythm disorder: 6.0%

-

Stroke: 4.7%

-

Fluid and electrolyte disorder: 2.6%

-

Congestive heart failure: 2.1%

-

Valvular heart disease: 1.5%

Chahoud, 2016(37) Hypertension patients in Lebanon (LMIC)
-

Diabetes mellitus 80/294 (27%)

Virani, 2020(35) From the 2020 AHA update of heart disease and stroke statistics
-

In a meta-analysis including 95 772 US females and 30 555 US Males, each 10 mmHg higher SBP was associated with an effect size (RR or HR) for CVD of 1.25 (95% CI, 1.18-1.32) among females and 1.15 (95% CI, 1.1-1.19) for males; RR for CVD mortality was 1.16 among females and 1.17 among males.

-

Increased risk of heart failure (multivariable-adjusted HR, 1.86 (95%CI, 1.51-2.3).

-

From the 2020 AHA update of heart disease and stroke statistics (35) – SBP/DBP ≥ 140/90 mmHg was associated with an OR for stroke of 2.98 (95% CI 2.72-3.28).

Thomopoulos, 2016(38) Meta-analysis of RCTs
-

A meta-analysis of randomized trials documented discontinuation for adverse events attributed to different classes of antihypertensive drugs. They do not give specifics of adverse effects, report on the % discontinuation. In this review, the probability of discontinuation over 5 years was 1.7% for centrally acting drugs, 2.9% for beta-blockers, 3.6% for diuretics, 7.7% for CCBs, 13.1% for ACEis and 15% for ARBs. The caveat is that the trials for centrally acting drugs, beta-blockers and diuretics are older and did not have other medications at baseline. Rate of discontinuation increased with increasing number of baseline drugs.

Wood, 2020(39) Patients taking statins
-

A recently published an N-or-1 trial of statin, placebo or no treatment found that 90% of symptom burden elicited by statins was also elicited by placebo. May be relevant when considering disutility of taking pills.

Evidence to decision for PICO question 2

Values and preferences

No research evidence

Resources required

No research evidence

Cost effectiveness

No research evidence

Equity

Baptist, 2018(40): Health care among Haitians is very difficult to manage due to public-health challenges resulting from limited or lack of access to health care, economical constraints and the country’s poor infrastructure. Haiti’s health care system is highly dependent on episodic aid from nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) for health care provision. It is not uncommon for Haitians to travel a minimum of 10 km to access primary medical care. These limitations in access to health care outside urban areas have important implications when planning approaches to HTN management, particularly in rural areas and among those in lower socioeconomic groups, leading to lack of follow up for health care, which limits laboratory testing to titrate pharmacological treatment for HTN.

Risso, 2015(7): In urban areas, patients found difficulty in taking time off work to attend the clinic: “Some of the private companies don’t accept ‘time-off’, but we [doctors] cannot provide medical leave because [patients] were only here for a few hours.” (HP)

Acceptability

Ogededgbe, 2006(41): The reported magnitude of the differences in medication adherence between intervention and usual care, however, was larger for the complex interventions compared with the simple interventions.

Feasibility

Indirect evidence, Risso, 2015(7): Commonly the MO will just “tell the patient to continue medication, sometimes without physical examination” (HP); they report having little time to talk with patients, and they simply “take their [the patient’s] word” as to whether they are adhering to medication and modifying their lifestyle as the doctors have insufficient time to engage with them to ensure a shared understanding. In the public sector, a nurse will take the patient’s blood pressure readings and any other tests required, which are then followed up by the MO as the nurse is not allowed to prescribe medications. However, physicians reported seeing 10 or more patients per hour, or 100 in a day, leaving inadequate time for meaningful interaction: “Many of healthcare providers [are] not able to sit down and have counselling session regarding their medications with their patients.” (KI)

Outcome utilities

Please refer to Table 17 below.

Table 17Utilities per outcome for PICO question 2

OutcomesUtilitySystematic reviewPrimary studies reported in the SR
Hypertension 0.96Ren 2020(14)Li 2015(15)
0.98 (range: 1–0.95)Kawalec 2015(16)Burstrom 2001(17), Sullivan 2008(18), Wang 2008(19)
Type 2 diabetes mellitus 0.985Gad 2020(20)Salomon 2012(21)
MACE Time NR: All CVD excluding stroke: 0.73 (95%CI: 0.69–0.76)Kawalec 2015(16)Lunde, 2013(22)
Stroke First month after onset: 0.55Ren 2020(14)Li 2015(15)
Days 1–3: 0.70Gu 2015(8)Salomon 2012(21)
Days 4–28: 0.88Gu 2015(8)Salomon 2012(21)
Chronic state: 0.65Ren 2020(14)Huang 2017(23)
Time NR: 0.70 (95%CI: 0.67–0.73)Kawalec 2015(16)Golicki 2010(24)
MI First month after onset: 0.60Ren 2020(14)Li 2015(15)
Days 1–3: 0.58Gu 2015(8)Salomon 2012(21)
Days 4–28: 0.94Gu 2015(8)Salomon 2012(21)
Chronic state: 0.70Ren 2020(14)Huang 2017(23)
Time NR: Disability weight 0.124Gad 2020(20)Salomon 2012(21)
ESRD ESRD pre-dialysis: 0.73 (95% CI: 0.62–1)Cooper 2020(25)Jesky 2016(26)
Hemodialysis: 0.75 (SD: 0.25)Cooper 2020(25)Briggs 2016(27)
Cognitive impairment/dementia Patient rating: 0.85 (SD: 0.19)NARowen 2015(28)

Patient rating:

mild dementia 0.79 (SD: 0.22)

moderate dementia: 0.72 (0.23)

NAOrgeta 2015(29)

Carer rating:

mild dementia 0.63 (SD: 0.27)

moderate dementia: 0.52 (0.27)

NAOrgeta 2015(29)
HF events First month after onset: 0.63Ren 2020(14)Li 2015(15)
Chronic state: 0.73Ren 2020(14)Huang 2017(23)
Time NR: 0.79Gad 2020(20)Salomon 2012(21)
Adverse events Common: 0.88Gu 2015(8)Clinical Judgement
Infrequent: 0.70Gu 2015(8)Salomon 2012(21)

PICO question 3: Should cardiovascular risk assessment be used to guide initiation of antihypertensive medications?

Systematic review for desirable and undesirable effects

Table 18Components for PICO question 3

PopulationInterventionComparisonOutcomeSubgroups
Adult men and women without pre-identified cardiovascular disease Initiating antihypertensives drug therapy based on a formal CVD risk estimationInitiating antihypertensives drug therapy without formal CVD risk assessment (i.e., using only BP threshold)
-

death (all-cause mortality)

-

CV death (death from MI, sudden cardiac death or stroke)

-

stroke

-

MI

-

end-stage kidney disease

-

HF events

-

cognitive impairment/dementia

-

adverse events

-

proportion of people prescribed with antihypertensives

-

BP levels

BP levels

Table 19Evidence Profile 3a: A formal cardiovascular risk estimation compared to no formal cardiovascular risk estimation in patients with hypertension without pre-identified cardiovascular disease who are starting antihypertensive medications

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsA formal cardiovascular risk estimationNo formal cardiovascular risk estimationRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Major cardiovascular events avoided by treatment (composite of stroke [nonfatal or death from cerebrovascular disease], coronary heart disease [nonfatal myocardial infarction or death from CHD including sudden death], heart failure [causing death of admission to hospital] or cardiovascular disease death) (follow up: 5 years; assessed with: Karmali, 2018(42))
10Secondary analysis of randomized trialsaseriousbnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnoneThe area under the curve quantifying the CV events avoided by treatment was (accuracy of avoiding cardiovascular events) – CVD risk strategy: 0.71 (95% CI, 0.70 to 0.72) – BP strategy: 0.54 (95% CI 0.53 to 0.55) The difference in accuracy was 0.17 (95% CI, 0.15 to 0.19). When doing the same analysis using the data from the SPRINT trial (Sundstrom & Karmali, 2019) results were qualitatively similar: CVD risk strategy: 0.58 (95% CI, 0.57 to 0.62)-BP strategy: 0.39 (95% CI, 0.34 to 0.92)- difference in accuracy: 0.19 (95% CI 0.12 to 0.29).c,d

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Major cardiovascular events avoided for the same number of treated persons when treating at a BP threshold of 140 mmHg (follow up: 5 years; assessed with: Karmali, 2018(42))
10Secondary analysis of randomized trialsaseriousbnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone847/33 231 (2.2%)821/33 231 (2.1%)NE

310 more per 1000

(from 150 more to 500 more)e

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Major cardiovascular events avoided for the same number of treated persons when treating at a BP threshold of 150 mmHg (follow up: 5 years; assessed with: Karmali, 2018(42))
10Secondary analysis of randomized trialsaseriousbnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone809/33 891 (2.4%)698/33 891 (2.1%)NE

158 more per 1000

(from 137 more to 183 more)e

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Major cardiovascular events avoided for the same number of treated persons when treating at a BP threshold of 160 mmHg (follow up: 5 years; assessed with: Karmali, 2018(42))
10Secondary analysis of randomized trialsaseriousbnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone767/27 039 (2.8%)557/22 039 (2.1%)NE

376 more per 1000

(from 288 more to 402 more)e

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Persons needed to treat to avoid the same number of cardiovascular events when treating at a BP threshold of 140 mm/Hg (follow up: 5 years; assessed with: Karmali, 2018(42))
10Secondary analysis of randomized trialsaseriousbnot seriousnot seriousseriousfnone37 730/47 872 (78.8%)39 231/47 872 (81.9%)NE

38 fewer per 1000

(from 125 fewer to 72 more)e

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Persons needed to treat to avoid the same number of cardiovascular events when treating at a BP threshold of 150 mmHg (follow up: 5 years; assessed with: Karmali, 2018(42))
10Secondary analysis of randomized trialsaseriousbnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone24 225/47 872 (50.6%)33 891/47 872 (70.8%)NE

285 fewer per 1000

(from 311 fewer to 256 fewer)e

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Persons needed to treat to avoid the same number of cardiovascular events when treating at a BP threshold of 160 mmHg (follow up: 5 years; assessed with: Karmali, 2018(42))
10Secondary analysis of randomized trialsaseriousbnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone17 484/47 872 (36.5%)27 039/47 872 (56.5%)NE

353 fewer per 1000

(from 499 fewer to 242 fewer)e

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Mortality – not reported
Cardiovascular mortality – not reported
Stroke – not reported
Myocardial infarction – not reported
End-stage kidney disease – not reported
Heart failure – not reported
Cognitive impairment – not reported
Adverse events – not reported
BP – not reported

CI: Confidence interval

Explanations

a

The original design of the studies was randomized trials; however the authors used the individual patient data to assess the outcomes of each patient had they been treated with one strategy or the other.

b

The question of interest is not the question randomization was done for. We decided to rate down only one level due to potential confounding bias, however, because the patients acted as their own control (although it is not clear how the data analysis accounted for this)

c

The ROC for the strategies cross at the 140 mmHg cut off, with the CV risk strategy being less accurate under that BP. The results of the SPRINT trial analysis, however, have ROC curves that do not cross at any point.

d

In the systematic review with individual patient meta-analysis in which the authors report how they built the CV risk-assessment model, they show that the relative effects of antihypertensive treatment is constant across risk groups, and that what changes is the absolute effect.

e

We used the numbers reported by the authors, who did not calculate a relative estimate of effect as they did not have two separate groups of patients.

f

The confidence interval crosses the line of no effect, and suggests that the difference could be importantly less, or importantly more.

Evidence to decision for PICO question 3

Values and preferences

No research evidence

Resources required

Gheorghe, 2018(43): The costs per episode for hypertension and generic CVD were generally homogeneous across studies, ranging between USD 500 and USD 1500. In contrast, for CHD and stroke, cost estimates were higher and more heterogeneous, with several estimates in excess of USD 5000 per episode. Most studies reported costs for hypertension, for a median of USD 22 per month across estimates. The medians for average monthly treatment costs for stroke and CHD were higher, but varied with study scope and economic perspective from as little as USD 50 per month (e.g. CHD, patient perspective) to over USD 1000 (e.g. CHD, provider perspective).

Cost effectiveness

No research evidence

Equity

Meiqari, 2019(11): In low-income settings, information on the availability of resources in health centres has reported their limited capacity to provide care for HTN, and the contribution of the private sector was also described as limited. Patients, therefore, tended to bypass the commune level and go to more distant centres, which increases their costs; this impedes continuous support for disease management. Moreover, HTN management at district and commune levels is based mainly on measuring BP and rarely takes into account behavioural or metabolic risk factors (e.g. smoking, total blood cholesterol, and the presence or absence of DM).

Helmer, 2018(44): Much research has been done to assess the best hypertensive treatment approaches in black patients; however, there is a paucity of high-quality data. Although there are no published data assessing clinical outcomes specifically in black patients using ACEi or ARB monotherapy, evidence from subgroup analyses and cohort studies suggests that these patients may have higher rates of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular outcomes compared with those taking other antihypertensives.

Risso, 2015(7): In urban areas, patients found difficulty in taking time off work to attend the clinic: “Some of the private companies don’t accept ‘time-off’, but we [doctors] cannot provide medical leave because [patients] were only here for a few hours” (HP). This is likely to make it more difficult for these patients to undergo a CV risk assessment.

Acceptability

Indirect evidence, Ogededgbe, 2006(41): The reported magnitude of the differences in medication adherence between intervention and usual care, was larger for the complex interventions compared with the simple interventions.

Feasibility

Gu, 2015(8): While China rapidly expanded health insurance coverage nationally within the past decade, many Chinese adults still have limited access to HTN screening and follow up. For example, in the New Rural Cooperative Medical Scheme, which now covers over 95% of the rural population, most coverage is for inpatient hospitalizations, and the costs of basic medical services, including HTN education, screening, treatment, and monitoring, are not usually covered.

Outcome utilities

Please refer to Table 20 below.

Table 20Utilities per outcome for PICO question 3

OutcomesUtilitySystematic reviewPrimary studies reported in the SR
Hypertension 0.96Ren 2020(14)Li 2015(15)
0.98 (range: 1 – 0.95)Kawalec 2015(16)Burstrom 2001(17), Sullivan 2008(18), Wang 2008(19)
Type 2 diabetes mellitus 0.985Gad 2020(20)Salomon 2012(21)
MACE Time NR: All CVD excluding stroke: 0.73 (95%CI: 0.69–0.76)Kawalec 2015(16)Lunde, 2013(22)
Stroke First month after onset: 0.55Ren 2020(14)Li 2015(15)
Days 1-3: 0.70Gu 2015(8)Salomon 2012(21)
Days 4-28: 0.88Gu 2015(8)Salomon 2012(21)
Chronic state: 0.65Ren 2020(14)Huang 2017(23)
Time NR: 0.70 (95%CI: 0.67-0.73)Kawalec 2015(16)Golicki 2010(24)
MI First month after onset: 0.60Ren 2020(14)Li 2015(15)
Days 1-3: 0.58Gu 2015(8)Salomon 2012(21)
Days 4-28: 0.94Gu 2015(8)Salomon 2012(21)
Chronic state: 0.70Ren 2020(14)Huang 2017(23)
Time NR: Disability weight 0.124Gad 2020(20)Salomon 2012(21)
ESRD ESRD pre-dialysis: 0.73 (95% CI: 0.62–1)Cooper 2020(25)Jesky 2016(26)
Hemodialysis: 0.75 (SD: 0.25)Cooper 2020(25)Briggs 2016(27)
Cognitive impairment/dementia Patient rating: 0.85 (SD: 0.19)NARowen 2015(28)

Patient rating:

mild dementia 0.79 (SD: 0.22)

moderate dementia: 0.72 (0.23)

NAOrgeta 2015(29)

Carer rating:

mild dementia 0.63 (SD: 0.27)

moderate dementia: 0.52 (0.27)

NAOrgeta 2015(29)
HF events First month after onset: 0.63Ren 2020(14)Li 2015(15)
Chronic state: 0.73Ren 2020(14)Huang 2017(23)
Time NR: 0.79Gad 2020(20)Salomon 2012(21)
Adverse events Common: 0.88Gu 2015(8)Clinical Judgement
Infrequent: 0.70Gu 2015(8)Salomon 2012(21)

PICO question 4: In adults with hypertension requiring pharmacological treatment, which drugs should be used as first-line agents?

Systematic review for desirable and undesirable effects

Evidence was considered in respect of the following components (Table 1) to determine (Table 21) to determine which drugs should be used as first-line agents in adults with hypertension requiring pharmacological treatment..

Table 21Components for PICO question 4

PopulationInterventionComparisonOutcomeSubgroup
Adult men and women >18 years old with primary HTN requiring pharmacological treatment BB, CCB, diuretics, ACEi, or ARBPlacebo
-

death (all-cause mortality)

-

CVD death (death from MI, sudden cardiac death or stroke)

-

stroke

-

MI

-

end-stage renal disease

-

cognitive impairment/dementia

-

heart failure events

-

adverse effects

-

BP reduction and control (if data on CVD events are absent)

Based on different effect modifiers such as:
-

estimated cardiovascular risk

-

pre-existing CAD

-

stroke

-

diabetes

-

age

-

sex

-

chronic kidney disease

-

race/ethnicity

-

level of baseline BP

Table 22Evidence profile 4a: Antihypertensive drug therapy (a mix of different class of antihypertensives) compared to placebo in individuals with hypertension

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsAntihypertensive drug therapyPlaceboRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Sudden cardiac death (mean follow up: 4.2 years) Taverny, 2016(45)
15randomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousanone247/20 353 (1.2%)246/19 555 (1.3%)

RR 0.96

(0.81 to 1.15)

1 fewer per 1000

(from 2 fewer to 2 more)

⨁⨁⨁⨁

HIGH

CRITICAL
Non-fatal myocardial infarction (mean follow up 4.2 years) Taverny, 2016(45)
15randomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousanone379/20 353 (1.9%)395/19 555 (2.0%)

RR 0.85

(0.74 to 0.98)

3 fewer per 1000

(from 5 fewer to 0 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁⨁

HIGH

CRITICAL
Fatal myocardial infarction (mean follow up 4.2 years) Taverny, 2016(45)
15randomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousanone202/20 353 (1.0%)232/19 555 (1.2%)

RR 0.75

(0.62 to 0.90)

3 fewer per 1000

(from 5 fewer to 1 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁⨁

HIGH

CRITICAL
Withdrawals due to adverse effects – Taverny, 2016(45)
10randomized trialsnot seriousseriousbnot seriousnot seriouscnone1996/16 197 (12.3%)983/15 829 (6.2%)

RR 2.06

(1.11 to 3.83)

66 more per 1000

(from 7 more to 176 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

IMPORTANT
Stroke (combined single agents and combinations, average duration of follow up 3.5 years) Parsons, 2016(46)
11drandomized trialsseriousenot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone698/17 428 (4.0%)1132/19 957 (5.7%)

RR 0.74

(0.67 to 0.82)

15 fewer per 1000

(from 19 fewer to 10 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

CRITICAL
Dementia (duration of follow up ranged from 2 to 9.8 years) van Middelaar, 2018(47)
9frandomized trialsnot seriousgnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone1041/29 029 (3.6%)1090/28 653 (3.8%)

RR 0.93

(0.84 to 1.02)

3 fewer per 1000

(from 6 fewer to 1 more)

⨁⨁⨁⨁

HIGH

IMPORTANT
Incident dementia (IPDA of 6 cohort studies with median follow up of 7–22 years) Ding, 2020(48)
6hobservational studiesnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone13.0%

HR 0.88

(0.79 to 0.98)

15 fewer per 1000

(from 26 fewer to 2 fewer)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

IMPORTANT
All-cause mortality – not reported
Cardiovascular mortality – not reported
End-stage renal disease – not reported
Heart failure events – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio; HR: Hazard Ratio

Explanations

a

The 95% CI is precise around the line of no effect, suggesting trivial benefit or trivial harm.

b

The point estimates vary importantly with regards to direction and magnitude of effect, and some of the CIs do not overlap. There is high statistical heterogeneity, as reflected by the I square (97.51%)

c

Although the confidence interval is wide, it does not cross the null; hence not downgraded for imprecision.

d

Event rates for individual outcomes in control group not included in the paper. We contacted the authors and received the excel file for events in each trial. The event rates were calculated.

e

The Medical Research Council elderly HTN trial had a high loss-to-follow-up (25%), other included trials had loss-to-follow-up ranging from 9 to 20%.

f

Parsons and colleagues included the outcome of dementia in individuals with HTN >65 years old and reported similar effect estimate of 0.90 (95% CI 0.76-1.07). Their date of literature search was 2014 and they included 4 trials for this outcome.

g

Overall risk of bias was low. Two trials (combined 16.6% weight) were unblinded due to the nature of the intervention (lifestyle or combined intervention). In one trial (12.6% weight) the study sponsor was involved in study design, data collection, analysis and interpretation.

h

Events in control arm not provided. Overall there were 1865/14 520 (12.8%) cases for this comparison. A baseline risk of 13% was used to estimate absolute effect.

Table 23Evidence profile 4b: Thiazide diuretics (low or high dose) compared to control in individuals with hypertension

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsThiazide diuretics (low or high dose)ControlRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Setting: Outpatient
Source: Wright 2018(49), Xiao 2018(50)
All-cause mortality – Low dose (mean duration 4.1 years)
8randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone894/9549 (9.4%)1137/10325 (11.0%)

RR 0.89

(0.82 to 0.97)

12 fewer per 1,000

(from 20 fewer to 3 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

CRITICAL
All-cause mortality – High dose (mean duration 4.1 years)
11randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousbnone221/7769 (2.8%)377/12070 (3.1%)

RR 0.90

(0.76 to 1.05)

3 fewer per 1,000

(from 7 fewer to 2 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

CRITICAL
Total stroke (fatal and non-fatal) – Low dose (mean duration 4.1 years)
8 randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone399/9549 (4.2%)638/10325 (6.2%)

RR 0.68

(0.60 to 0.77)

20 fewer per 1,000

(from 25 fewer to 14 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

CRITICAL
Total stroke (fatal and non-fatal) – High dose (mean duration 4.1 years)
11randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousbnone87/7769 (1.1%)229/12070 (1.9%)

RR 0.47

(0.37 to 0.61)

10 fewer per 1,000

(from 12 fewer to 7 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

CRITICAL
Total coronary heart disease (coronary heart disease, fatal and non-fatal myocardial infarction, and sudden or rapid cardiac death) – Low dose (mean duration 4.1 years)
7randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone231/9123 (2.5%)386/9899 (3.9%)

RR 0.72

(0.61 to 0.84)

11 fewer per 1,000

(from 15 fewer to 6 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

IMPORTANT
Total coronary heart disease (coronary heart disease, fatal and non-fatal myocardial infarction, and sudden or rapid cardiac death) – High dose (mean duration 4.1 years)
11randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousbnone212/7769 (2.7%)327/12070 (2.7%)

RR 1.01

(0.85 to 1.20)

0 fewer per 1,000

(from 4 fewer to 5 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

IMPORTANT
Total cardiovascular events (total stroke, total CHD, hospitalization or death from congestive heart failure and other significant vascular deaths such as ruptured aneurysms) – Low dose (mean duration 4.1 years)
7randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone810/9123 (8.9%)1279/9899 (12.9%)

RR 0.70

(0.64 to 0.76)

39 fewer per 1,000

(from 47 fewer to 31 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

IMPORTANT
Total cardiovascular events (total stroke, total CHD, hospitalization or death from congestive heart failure and other significant vascular deaths such as ruptured aneurysms) – High dose (mean duration 4.1 years)
11randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone311/7769 (4.0%)611/12070 (5.1%)

RR 0.72

(0.63 to 0.82)

14 fewer per 1,000

(from 19 fewer to 9 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

IMPORTANT
Withdrawal due to adverse effects – Low dose (mean duration 4.1 years)
3randomized trialsseriousa,cnot seriousdnot seriousnot seriousnone467/3862 (12.1%)248/5008 (5.0%)

RR 2.38

(2.06 to 2.75)

68 more per 1,000

(from 52 more to 87 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

IMPORTANT
Withdrawal due to adverse effects – High dose (mean duration 4.1 years)
7randomized trialsseriousa,cnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone497/5422 (9.2%)214/9748 (2.2%)

RR 4.48

(3.83 to 5.24)

76 more per 1,000

(from 62 more to 93 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

IMPORTANT
Fractures – Xiao 2018
11eobservational studiesnot seriousseriousfnot seriousnot seriousnone3.0%

RR 0.86

(0.80 to 0.93)

4 fewer per 1,000

(from 6 fewer to 2 fewer)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

IMPORTANT
Systolic blood pressure – Low dose (mean duration 4.1 years)
8randomized trialsseriousa,cnot seriousgnot seriousnot seriousnone-

MD 12.56 lower

(13.22 lower to 11.91 lower)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

IMPORTANT
Systolic blood pressure – High dose (mean duration 4.1 years)
6randomized trialsseriousa,cnot seriousgnot seriousnot seriousnone-

MD 13.66 lower

(14.4 lower to 12.91 lower)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

IMPORTANT
Diastolic blood pressure – Low dose (mean duration 4.1 years)
8randomized trialsseriousa,cnot seriousgnot seriousnot seriousnone-

MD 4.73 lower

(5.12 lower to 4.34 lower)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

IMPORTANT
Diastolic blood pressure – High dose (mean duration 4.1 years)
10randomized trialsseriousa,cnot seriousgnot seriousnot seriousnone-

MD 6.82 lower

(7.24 lower to 6.41 lower)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

IMPORTANT
Cardiovascular mortality – not reported
- -----------
End stage renal disease – not reported
- -----------
Cognitive impairment /dementia – not reported
- -----------

CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio; MD: Mean difference

Explanations

a

Lack of blinding, Incomplete outcome reporting and selective outcome reporting bias leading to high risk or unclear risk of bias in majority (responsible for >50% of weight) of included trials.

b

The 95% CI is precise around the line of no effect, suggesting trivial benefit or trivial harm.

c

High risk of selective reporting bias (3 out of 8 for low dose and 7 out of 11 for high dose report this outcome).

d

Even though there is statistical inconsistency, all estimates suggest the same direction of effect, only one of the CIs does not overlap.

e

Event rates and sample size for each outcome not included in this review. A conservative baseline risk estimate of 3% was imputed to estimate absolute effect.

f

The point estimates vary importantly with regards to direction and magnitude of effect, and some of the CIs do not overlap. There is high statistical heterogeneity, as reflected by the I-squared (58%).

g

Even though there is statistical inconsistency, all estimates suggest the same direction of effect.

Table 24Evidence profile 4c: Loop diuretics compared to placebo in individuals with hypertension

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsloop diureticsplaceboRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Systolic BP (4 to 12 weeks duration)
9randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousbnone

MD 7.9 mmHg lower

(10.4 lower to 5.4 lower)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

IMPORTANT
Diastolic BP (4 to 12 weeks duration)
9randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousbnone

MD 4.4 mmHg lower

(5.9 lower to 2.8 lower)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

IMPORTANT
Musini 2015(51) – Cochrane review – BP-lowering efficacy of loop diuretics for primary HTN

CI: Confidence interval; MD: Mean difference

Explanations

a

All but one trials were at high risk of at least one item in the risk of bias including incomplete outcome reporting (attrition bias), selective reporting (reporting bias) and publication bias. All but one trial were unclear risk of random sequence generation and allocation concealment.

b

Total number of participants in all the trials combined was 460. In the control arm, SBP reduction ranged from −3.3 to −15.7 mmHg. In the control arm, SBP reduction ranged from −2 to – 6.7.

Table 25Evidence profile 4d: Diuretic antihypertensive therapy compared to placebo in individuals with hypertension (mix of different diuretics – outcome of incident dementia and falls)

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsDiuretic (any) antihypertensive therapyPlaceboRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Incident dementia – (follow up – 2.2 to 4.5 years) Tully 2016(52)
4arandomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone4.0%

HR 0.88

(0.78 to 0.99)

5 fewer per 1000

(from 9 fewer to 0 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁⨁

HIGH

IMPORTANT
Incident dementia – (length of follow up 3 to 9 years) Tully 2016(52)
11aobservational studiesnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone4.0%

HR 0.79

(0.70 to 0.89)

8 fewer per 1000

(from 12 fewer to 4 fewer)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

IMPORTANT
Incident dementia (IPDA of 6 cohort studies with median follow up of 7–22 years) Ding 2020(48)
6bobservational studiesnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone9.0%

HR 0.97

(0.76 to 1.24)

3 fewer per 1000

(from 21 fewer to 20 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

IMPORTANT
Falls – Ang 2018(53)
38cobservational studiesnot seriousdseriousenot seriousnot seriousnone5.0%

OR 1.05

(0.92 to 1.20)

2 more per 1000

(from 4 fewer to 9 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

IMPORTANT
Injurious falls – Ang 2018(53)
29cobservational studiesnot seriousdseriousenot seriousnot seriousnone5.0%

OR 0.98

(0.88 to 1.08)

1 fewer per 1000

(from 6 fewer to 4 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

IMPORTANT
Recurrent falls – Ang 2018(53)
8cobservational studiesnot seriousdseriousfnot seriousseriousgnone5.0%

OR 1.15

(0.95 to 1.40)

7 more per 1000

(from 2 fewer to 19 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

IMPORTANT
All-cause mortality – not reported
New outcome
NE
Cardiovascular mortality – not reported
Stroke – not reported
Myocardial Infarction – not reported
End-stage renal disease – not reported
Heart failure events – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; HR: Hazard Ratio; OR: Odds ratio

Explanations

a

Event rates and sample size for each outcome not included in this review. Baseline risk estimate was imputed (for estimating absolute effect) from the incidence in a control group in a different systematic review.

b

Events in control arm not provided. Overall there were 934/10 623 (8.8%) cases for this comparison. A baseline risk of 9% was used to estimate absolute effect.

c

A conservative estimate of 5% falls in the control arm was used to calculate absolute effects.

d

The authors used the NOS to assess study quality. The studies were a mix of high quality (27%), moderate quality (50%) and low quality (23%). Sensitivity analysis including only high quality trials yielded comparable results to the overall analysis.

e

The point estimates vary importantly with regards to direction and magnitude of effect, and some of the CIs do not overlap. There is high statistical heterogeneity, as reflected by the I-squared (96%).

f

The point estimates vary importantly with regards to direction and magnitude of effect, and some of the CIs do not overlap. There is high statistical heterogeneity, as reflected by the I-squared (55%).

g

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the upper end of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be an important harm.

Table 26Evidence profile 4e: Beta-blocker (BB) compared to placebo in individuals with high BP

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsBBPlaceboRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Total mortality (mean duration 5.3 years) Wright 2018(49)
5randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousbnone461/6967 (6.6%)769/12 346 (6.2%)

RR 0.96

(0.86 to 1.07)

2 fewer per 1000

(from 9 fewer to 4 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

CRITICAL
Total stroke (fatal and non-fatal) (mean duration 5.3 years) Wright 2018(49)
5randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone248/6967 (3.6%)414/12 346 (3.4%)

RR 0.83

(0.72 to 0.97)

6 fewer per 1000

(from 9 fewer to 1 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

CRITICAL
Total coronary heart disease (coronary heart disease, fatal and non-fatal myocardial infarction, and sudden or rapid cardiac death) (mean duration 5.3 years) Wright 2018(49)
5randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousseriouscnone303/6967 (4.3%)538/12 346 (4.4%)

RR 0.90

(0.78 to 1.03)

4 fewer per 1000

(from 10 fewer to 1 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

IMPORTANT
Total cardiovascular events (total stroke, total CHD, hospitalization or death from congestive heart failure and other significant vascular deaths such as ruptured aneurysms) (mean duration 5.3 years) Wright 2018(49)
5randomized trialsseriousaseriousdnot seriousnot seriousnone545/6967 (7.8%)941/12 346 (7.6%)

RR 0.89

(0.81 to 0.98)

8 fewer per 1000

(from 14 fewer to 2 fewer)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

IMPORTANT
Incident dementia (IPDA of 6 cohort studies with median follow up of 7-22 years) Ding 2020(48)
5eobservational studiesnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousseriousfnone9.0%

HR 0.96

(0.77 to 1.20)

3 fewer per 1000

(from 20 fewer to 17 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

IMPORTANT
Withdrawal due to adverse effects (mean duration 5.3 years) Wright 2018(49)
4randomized trialsseriousaseriousgnot seriousnot seriousnone1022/6609 (15.5%)376/11 956 (3.1%)

RR 4.59

(4.11 to 5.13)

113 more per 1000

(from 98 more to 130 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

IMPORTANT
Systolic BP change (mean duration 5.3 years) Wright 2018(49)
5randomized trialsseriousaseriousgnot seriousnot seriousnone

MD 9.51 lower

(10.16 lower to 8.85 lower)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

IMPORTANT
Diastolic BP change (mean duration 5.3 years) Wright 2018(49)
5randomized trialsseriousaseriousgnot seriousnot seriousnone

MD 5.64 lower

(6.06 lower to 3.77 lower)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

IMPORTANT
Falls – Ang 2018(53)
18observational studiesnot serioushnot seriousdnot seriousnot seriousnone5.0%

OR 1.04

(0.94 to 1.15)

2 more per 1000

(from 3 fewer to 7 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

IMPORTANT
Injurious falls (Falls requiring medical attention) – Ang 2018(53)
8observational studiesnot serioushseriousdnot seriousnot seriousnone5.0%

OR 0.84

(0.76 to 0.93)

8 fewer per 1000

(from 12 fewer to 3 fewer)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

IMPORTANT
Recurrent falls – Ang 2018(53)
4observational studiesnot serioushnot seriousnot seriousseriousinone5.0%

OR 1.19

(0.90 to 1.58)

9 more per 1000

(from 5 fewer to 27 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

IMPORTANT
End-stage renal disease – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio; HR: Hazard Ratio; OR: Odds ratio

Explanations

a

Three large trials included in this comparison were not blinded, resulting in high risk of performance / detection bias, blinding was unclear in a 4th trial. 2 of included trials had a high risk of attrition bias.

b

The 95% CI is precise around the line of no effect, suggesting trivial benefit or trivial harm.

c

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the lower end of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be an important benefit.

d

The point estimates vary importantly with regards to direction and magnitude of effect, and some of the CIs do not overlap. There is high statistical heterogeneity, as reflected by the I-squared (54%).

e

Events in control arm not provided. Overall there were 888/9826 (9%) cases for this comparison. A baseline risk of 9% was used to estimate absolute effect.

f

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the upper and lower ends of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be an important benefit or harm.

g

The point estimates vary importantly with regards to direction and magnitude of effect, and some of the CIs do not overlap. There is high statistical heterogeneity, as reflected by the I-squared (>85%)

h

The authors used the NOS to assess study quality. The studies were a mix of high quality (27%), moderate quality (50%) and low quality (23%). Sensitivity analysis including only high-quality trials yielded comparable results to the overall analysis.

i

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the upper end of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be an important harm.

Table 27Evidence profile 4f: Angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEi) compared to placebo in treatment of hypertension

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsACEiPlaceboRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Total mortality (mean duration 4.9 years) Wright 2018(49)
3randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone343/3043 (11.3%)402/2959 (13.6%)

RR 0.83

(0.72 to 0.95)

23 fewer per 1000

(from 38 fewer to 7 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

CRITICAL
Total stroke (fatal and non-fatal) (mean duration 4.9 years) Wright 2018(49)
3randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone119/3043 (3.9%)177/2959 (6.0%)

RR 0.65

(0.52 to 0.82)

21 fewer per 1000

(from 29 fewer to 11 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

CRITICAL
Total coronary heart disease (coronary heart disease, fatal and non-fatal myocardial infarction, and sudden or rapid cardiac death) (mean duration 4.9 years) Wright 2018(49)
2randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone288/2612 (11.0%)343/2533 (13.5%)

RR 0.81

(0.70 to 0.94)

26 fewer per 1000

(from 41 fewer to 8 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

CRITICAL
Total cardiovascular events (total stroke, total CHD, hospitalization or death from congestive heart failure and other significant vascular deaths such as ruptured aneurysms) (mean duration 4.9 years) Wright 2018(49)
2randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone399/2612 (15.3%)510/2533 (20.1%)

RR 0.76

(0.67 to 0.85)

48 fewer per 1000

(from 66 fewer to 30 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

CRITICAL
Incident dementia (IPDA of 6 cohort studies with median follow up of 7-22 years) Ding 2020(48)
6bobservational studiesnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousseriouscnone8.0%

HR 1.03

(0.83 to 1.27)

2 more per 1000

(from 13 fewer to 20 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

IMPORTANT
Systolic BP (mean duration 4.9 years) Wright 2018(49)
2randomized trialsseriousanot seriousdnot seriousnot seriousnone

MD 21.14 lower

(23.13 lower to 19.15 lower)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

NOT IMPORTANT
Diastolic BP (mean duration 4.9 years) Wright 2018(49)
2randomized trialsseriousanot seriousdnot seriousnot seriousnone

MD 9.64 lower

(10.7 lower to 8.58 lower)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

NOT IMPORTANT
Falls Ang 2018(53)
9observational studiesnot seriousenot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone5.0%

OR 1.02

(0.95 to 1.10)

1 more per 1000

(from 2 fewer to 5 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOWf

IMPORTANT
Injurious falls (Falls requiring medical attention) Ang 2018(53)
5observational studiesnot seriousenot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone5.0%

OR 0.85

(0.81 to 0.89)

7 fewer per 1000

(from 9 fewer to 5 fewer)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

IMPORTANT
Recurrent falls Ang 2018(53)
3fobservational studiesnot seriousenot seriousnot seriousseriousgnone5.0%

OR 1.13

(0.91 to 1.40)

6 more per 1000

(from 4 fewer to 19 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

IMPORTANT
Risk of fractures Kunutsor 2017(54)
5hobservational studiesnot seriousseriousinot seriousseriousgnone3.0%

RR 1.09

(0.89 to 1.33)

3 more per 1000

(from 3 fewer to 10 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

IMPORTANT
End-stage renal disease – not reported
Setting: Outpatients

CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio; HR: Hazard Ratio; OR: Odds ratio

Explanations

a

High risk of attrition bias in one of the three trials (~30% of participants discontinued the study medication). This study had a 70% weight in the meta-analysis. Lack of blinding in another trial.

b

Events in control arm not provided. Overall there were 895/11 112 (8%) cases for this comparison. A baseline risk of 8% was used to estimate absolute effect.

c

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the upper and lower ends of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be an important benefit or harm.

d

Even though there is statistical inconsistency, all estimates suggest the same direction of effect.

e

The authors used the NOS to assess study quality. The studies were a mix of high quality (27%), moderate quality (50%) and low quality (23%). Sensitivity analysis including only high-quality trials yielded comparable results to the overall analysis.

f

A conservative estimate of 5% falls in the control arm was used to calculate absolute effects.

g

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the upper end of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be an important harm.

h

The review did not provide event rates with forest plots, a 3% baseline risk was imputed to obtain absolute effect.

i

The point estimates vary importantly with regards to direction and magnitude of effect, and some of the CIs do not overlap. I-squared not provided.

Table 28Evidence profile 4g: Angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) compared to placebo in individuals with hypertension

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsARBPlaceboRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
All-cause mortality (Range 2 to 5 years) Dimou 2019(55)
1arandomized trialsseriousbnot seriousc,dnot seriousseriousenone402/2959 (13.6%)

RR 0.90

(0.75 to 1.08)

14 fewer per 1000

(from 34 fewer to 11 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOWf

CRITICAL
Cardiovascular mortality (Range 2 to 5 years) Dimou 2019(55)
2grandomized trialsseriousbnot seriousd,hnot seriousseriousenone297/2959 (10.0%)

RR 0.91

(0.72 to 1.15)

9 fewer per 1000

(from 28 fewer to 15 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOWf

CRITICAL
Myocardial infarction (fatal and non-fatal) (Range 2 to 5 years) Dimou 2019(55)
2irandomized trialsseriousbnot seriousdnot seriousseriousenone275/2959 (9.3%)

RR 0.90

(0.71 to 1.13)

9 fewer per 1000

(from 27 fewer to 12 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOWf

CRITICAL
Stroke (Range 2 to 5 years) Dimou 2019(55)
2irandomized trialsseriousbnot seriousdnot seriousseriousenone177/2959 (6.0%)

RR 0.80

(0.67 to 0.96)

12 fewer per 1000

(from 20 fewer to 2 fewer)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOWf

CRITICAL
Heart failure (development of or hospitalization for heart failure) (Range 2 to 5 years) Dimou 2019(55)
1jrandomized trialsseriousbnot seriousdnot seriousseriousenone214/2959 (7.2%)

RR 1.05

(0.82 to 1.35)

4 more per 1000

(from 13 fewer to 25 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOWf

IMPORTANT
Incident dementia (IPDA of 6 cohort studies with median follow up of 7-22 years) Ding 2020(48)
3kobservational studiesnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousseriouslnone9.4%

HR 0.78

(0.50 to 1.22)

20 fewer per 1000

(from 46 fewer to 19 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

IMPORTANT
Falls (adverse effects) Ang 2018(53)
5observational studiesnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousseriousenone5.0%

OR 0.96

(0.87 to 1.06)

2 fewer per 1000

(from 6 fewer to 3 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

IMPORTANT
Injurious falls (falls requiring medical attention) Ang 2018(53)
3observational studiesnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousseriousmnone5.0%

OR 0.74

(0.53 to 1.03)

13 fewer per 1000

(from 23 fewer to 1 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

IMPORTANT
Recurrent falls Ang 2018(53)
1observational studiesnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousseriousenone5.0%

OR 1.17

(0.80 to 1.71)

8 more per 1000

(from 10 fewer to 33 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

IMPORTANT
Fractures Kunutsor 2017(54)
5observational studiesnot seriousseriousnnot seriousnot seriousnone3.0%

RR 0.87

(0.76 to 1.01)

4 fewer per 1000

(from 7 fewer to 0 fewer)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

IMPORTANT
End-stage renal disease – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio; HR: Hazard Ratio; OR: Odds ratio

Explanations

a

These results are from a network meta-analysis that included one trial directly comparing ARB to placebo, three trials comparing ACEi to placebo and two trials comparing ACEi to ARB with a total of 6 trials in the network.

b

Included trials had an intermediate risk of selection (random sequence generation/allocation bias) and attrition bias.

c

Q decomposition indicated heterogeneity (within designs Q 6.76, df:3, p:0.08).

d

Adequate data to assess inconsistency and incoherence was not provided in this manuscript. We reached out to the authors for clarification/additional data, the authors have not responded.

e

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the upper end of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be an important harm

f

This review did not provide baseline risk or Forest plots; baseline risk is imputed based on the rate in control arms of some of the other antihypertensive trials.

g

These results are from a network meta-analysis that included two trials directly comparing ARB to placebo, two trials comparing ACEi to placebo and one trial comparing ACEi to ARB with a total of five trials in the network.

h

Q decomposition indicated inconsistency (between designs Q:5.83, df:1, p:0.02).

i

These results are from a network meta-analysis that included two trials directly comparing ARB to placebo, three trials comparing ACEi to placebo and one trial comparing ACEi to ARB with a total of six trials in the network.

j

These results are from a network meta-analysis that included one trial directly comparing ARB to placebo, three trials comparing ACEi to placebo and one trial comparing ACEi to ARB with a total of five trials in the network.

k

Events in control arm not provided. Overall there were 476/5073 (9.4%) cases for this comparison. A baseline risk of 9.4% was used to estimate absolute effect.

l

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the upper and lower ends of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be an important benefit or harm.

m

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the lower end of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be an important benefit

n

The point estimates vary importantly with regards to direction and magnitude of effect, and some of the CIs do not overlap, I-squared not provided.

Table 29Evidence profile 4h: Calcium channel blocker (CCB) compared to placebo in individuals with hypertension

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsCCBPlaceboRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Total mortality (2.5 years follow up) Wright 2018(49)
1randomized trialsseriousaseriousbnot seriousnot seriousnone123/2398 (5.1%)137/2297 (6.0%)

RR 0.86

(0.68 to 1.09)

8 fewer per 1000

(from 19 fewer to 5 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

CRITICAL
Total stroke (fatal and non-fatal) (2.5 years follow up) Wright 2018(49)
1randomized trialsseriousaseriousbnot seriousnot seriousnone47/2398 (2.0%)77/2297 (3.4%)

RR 0.58

(0.41 to 0.84)

14 fewer per 1000

(from 20 fewer to 5 fewer)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

CRITICAL
Total coronary heart disease (coronary heart disease, fatal and non-fatal myocardial infarction, and sudden or rapid cardiac death) (2.5 years follow up) Wright 2018(49)
1randomized trialsseriousanot seriousbnot seriousseriouscnone58/2398 (2.4%)72/2297 (3.1%)

RR 0.77

(0.55 to 1.09)

7 fewer per 1000

(from 14 fewer to 3 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

CRITICAL
Total cardiovascular events (total stroke, total CHD, hospitalization or death from congestive heart failure and other significant vascular deaths such as ruptured aneurysms) (2.5 years follow up) Wright 2018(49)
1randomized trialsseriousanot seriousbnot seriousnot seriousnone137/2398 (5.7%)186/2297 (8.1%)

RR 0.71

(0.57 to 0.87)

23 fewer per 1000

(from 35 fewer to 11 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

CRITICAL
Heart failure (2.5 years follow up) Wright 2018(49)
1randomized trialsseriousanot seriousbnot seriousseriouscnone31/2398 (1.3%)42/2297 (1.8%)

RR 0.71

(0.45 to 1.12)

5 fewer per 1000

(from 10 fewer to 2 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

CRITICAL
Dementia in the elderly (>60 years) Median 8.2 years follow up – Hussain 2018(56)
10observational studiesnot seriousseriousdseriousenot seriousnone4.0%

RR 0.70

(0.58 to 0.85)

12 fewer per 1000

(from 17 fewer to 6 fewer)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

IMPORTANT
Incident dementia (IPDA of 6 cohort studies with median follow up of 7-22 years) Ding 2020(48)
6fobservational studiesnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousseriousgnone8.0%

HR 0.92

(0.75 to 1.14)

6 fewer per 1000

(from 19 fewer to 11 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

IMPORTANT
Systolic BP (2.5 years follow up) Wright 2018(49)
1hrandomized trialsnot seriousanot seriousbnot seriousnot seriousnone

MD 8.9 mmHg lower

(10.14 lower to 7.66 lower)

⨁⨁⨁⨁

HIGH

IMPORTANT
Diastolic BP (2.5 years follow up) Wright 2018(49)
1randomized trialsnot seriousanot seriousbnot seriousnot seriousnone

MD 4.5 mmHg lower

(5.1 lower to 3.9 lower)

⨁⨁⨁⨁

HIGH

IMPORTANT
Falls Ang 2018(53)
11observational studiesnot seriousinot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone5.0%

OR 1.00

(0.91 to 1.11)

0 fewer per 1000

(from 4 fewer to 5 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOWj

IMPORTANT
Injurious falls (falls requiring medical attention) Ang 2018(53)
8observational studiesnot seriousiseriousknot seriousnot seriousnone5.0%

OR 0.81

(0.74 to 0.90)

9 fewer per 1000

(from 13 fewer to 5 fewer)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

IMPORTANT
Recurrent falls Ang 2018(53)
3observational studiesnot seriousinot seriousnot seriousseriouslnone5.0%

OR 1.25

(0.98 to 1.59)

12 more per 1000

(from 1 fewer to 27 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

IMPORTANT
End-stage renal disease – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio; HR: Hazard Ratio; MD: Mean difference; OR: Odds ratio

Explanations

a

Percentage not on assigned therapy at study end – placebo 28%, treatment group 18%.

b

Only one trial with evidence for this comparison with >4600 participants.

c

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the lower end of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be an important benefit.

d

The point estimates vary importantly with regards to direction and magnitude of effect, and some of the CIs do not overlap. There is high statistical heterogeneity, as reflected by the I-squared (88%).

e

Comparator not identified (most were observational studies of individuals with HTN, the antihypertensive used in the control arm was not identified).

f

Events in control arm not provided. Overall there were 900/11 174 (8%) cases for this comparison. A baseline risk of 8% was used to estimate absolute effect.

g

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the upper and lower ends of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be an important benefit or harm.

h

Seeley 2020 reviewed available evidence for pharmacotherapy of HTN in sub-Saharan Africa. Network meta-analysis with random effects was used to compare the effects across interventions. 32 studies with 2860 patients were included, median size – 42 participants/study. Nearly all studies were at some or high risk of bias. 50% of studies reported per-protocol results. Data were incomplete for 30 studies. Five studies failed to report any measure of variance. Very low quality data suggested that CCBs were the most efficacious first line agent with 18.46/11.6 mmHg reduction, no data on morbidity and mortality outcomes was available.

i

The authors used the NOS to assess study quality. The studies were a mix of high quality (27%), moderate quality (50%) and low quality (23%). Sensitivity analysis including only high-quality trials yielded comparable results to the overall analysis.

j

Event rate in the control arm was not provided. A conservative estimate of 5% falls in the control arm was used to calculate absolute effects.

k

The point estimates vary importantly with regards to direction and magnitude of effect, and some of the CIs do not overlap. There is high statistical heterogeneity, as reflected by the I-squared (75%).

l

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the upper end of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be an important harm.

Table 30Evidence profile 4i: Antihypertensive drug therapy compared to placebo or no therapy in individuals aged 18 to 59 years with hypertension

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsAntihypertensive drug therapyPlacebo or no therapyRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Source
Musini 2017(57) – Cochrane review – Pharmacotherapy for HTN in adults aged 18–59 years
All-cause mortality (mean duration 5 years)
5randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone194/8419 (2.3%)204/8357 (2.4%)

RR 0.94

(0.77 to 1.13)

1 fewer per 1000

(from 6 fewer to 3 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

CRITICAL
Cardiovascular mortality plus morbidity (included fatal and nonfatal stroke, fatal and nonfatal MI, sudden death, hospitalization or death from congestive heart failure and other significant vascular deaths such as ruptured aneurysms) (mean duration 5 yeas)
6randomized trialsvery seriousa,bnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone277/8672 (3.2%)351/8606 (4.1%)

RR 0.78

(0.67 to 0.91)

9 fewer per 1000

(from 13 fewer to 4 fewer)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

CRITICAL
Cerebrovascular mortality plus morbidity (fatal and nonfatal stroke) (mean duration 5 years)
6randomized trialsvery seriousa,bnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone55/8672 (0.6%)116/8606 (1.3%)

RR 0.46

(0.34 to 0.64)

7 fewer per 1000

(from 9 fewer to 5 fewer)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

CRITICAL
Coronary heart disease mortality plus morbidity including fatal and non-fatal MI, sudden or rapid cardiac death (mean duration 5 years)
4randomized trialsvery seriousa,bnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone208/8134 (2.6%)210/8107 (2.6%)

RR 0.99

(0.82 to 1.19)

0 fewer per 1000

(from 5 fewer to 5 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

CRITICAL
Withdrawal due to adverse events (follow up 10 years for the one trial that informed this outcome)
3randomized trialsvery seriousa,b,cnot seriousnot seriousseriousdnone19/626 (3.0%)4/597 (0.7%)

RR 4.82

(1.67 to 13.92)

26 more per 1000

(from 4 more to 87 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

IMPORTANT
Reduction in systolic BP (mean duration 5 years)
3randomized trialsvery seriousa,b,enot seriousfnot seriousnot seriousnone

MD 14.98 mmHg lower

(20.44 lower to 9.52 lower)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

NOT IMPORTANT
Reduction in diastolic BP (mean duration 5 years)
4randomized trialsvery seriousa,b,gnot seriousfnot seriousnot seriousnone

MD 7.62 mmHg lower

(10.55 lower to 4.69 lower)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

NOT IMPORTANT
End-stage renal disease – not reported
Cognitive impairment/dementia – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio; MD: Mean difference

Explanations

a

Attrition bias – in the largest trial included in this analysis (MRC-TMH 1985 – weighted between 65% to 86.4% for outcomes except for BP outcomes where the weight was ~ 30%), approximately 40% of the participants either stopped taking their assigned treatment during study follow up or were lost to follow up.

b

Lack of blinding of physician and participants in three trials (including the MRC-TMH 1985).

c

Only three out of seven included trials reported this outcome; in two out of these three no adverse events reported. MRC-TMH 1985 (the largest trial included) did not report on this outcome.

d

Results represent events in one trial only. Number of events is very low.

e

Change in SBP in the control group ranged from increase by 1.5 mmHg to decrease from 9-14 mmHg.

f

I-squared = 95% and some of the confidence intervals do not overlap. Even though there is statistical inconsistency, all estimates suggest the same direction of effect and only one of the CIs does not overlap with the others.

g

Decrease in DBP in the control group ranged from 0.6 mmHg to 7 mmHg.

Table 31Evidence profile 4j: Antihypertensive drug therapy compared to placebo or no active comparator therapy in individuals over 60 years with hypertension

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsAntihypertensive drug therapyPlacebo or no active comparator therapyRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Source
Musini 2019(57) – Cochrane review – Pharmacotherapy for HTN in adults 60 years or older
Total mortality (mean duration 3.8 years)
13randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone1290/13 368 (9.6%)1376/12 564 (11.0%)

RR 0.91

(0.85 to 0.97)

10 fewer per 1000

(from 16 fewer to 3 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

CRITICAL
Fatal stroke (mean duration 3.7 years)
11randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone143/13 287 (1.1%)202/12 476 (1.6%)

RR 0.67

(0.54 to 0.82)

5 fewer per 1000

(from 7 fewer to 3 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

CRITICAL
Fatal coronary heart disease (mean duration 3.7 years)
10randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone296/12 428 (2.4%)374/12 050 (3.1%)

RR 0.78

(0.67 to 0.91)

7 fewer per 1000

(from 10 fewer to 3 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

CRITICAL
Cardiovascular mortality and morbidity including total stroke, total coronary heart disease, hospitalization or death from congestive heart failure, and other significant vascular deaths such as ruptured aneurysm (mean duration 3.8 years)
15randomized trialsseriousanot seriousbnot seriousnot seriousnone1312/13 778 (9.5%)1759/12 969 (13.6%)

RR 0.72

(0.68 to 0.77)

38 fewer per 1000

(from 43 fewer to 31 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

CRITICAL
Cerebrovascular mortality and morbidity including fatal and non-fatal stroke (mean duration 3.7 years)
13randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone453/13 424 (3.4%)659/12 618 (5.2%)

RR 0.66

(0.59 to 0.74)

18 fewer per 1000

(from 21 fewer to 14 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

CRITICAL
Coronary heart disease mortality and morbidity including fatal and non-fatal myocardial infarction and sudden or rapid cardiac death (mean duration 2.9 years)
11randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone456/12 466 (3.7%)576/12 093 (4.8%)

RR 0.78

(0.69 to 0.88)

10 fewer per 1000

(from 15 fewer to 6 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

CRITICAL
Withdrawal due to adverse effects (mean duration 4.6 years)
4randomized trialsseriousa,cseriousdnot seriousnot seriousnone865/5803 (14.9%)297/5507 (5.4%)

RR 2.91

(2.56 to 3.30)

103 more per 1000

(from 84 more to 124 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

IMPORTANT
End-stage renal disease – not reported
Cognitive impairment/dementia – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio

Explanations

a

Lack of blinding, incomplete outcome reporting and selective outcome reporting in the majority (example – 11 of 13 for total mortality) of trials. Four large trials were funded by industry.

b

I-squared 65 %, even though there is statistical inconsistency, all estimates suggest the same direction of effect and only one of the CIs does not overlap with the others

c

Only four of 16 trials reported this outcome

d

The point estimates vary and some of the CIs do not overlap. There is high statistical heterogeneity, as reflected by the I-squared (97%).

Table 32Evidence profile 4k: Antihypertensive drug therapy compared to placebo or no treatment in individuals over 80 years with hypertension

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsAntihypertensive drug therapyPlacebo or no treatmentRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Source
Musini 2019(57) – Cochrane review – Pharmacotherapy for HTN in adults 60 years or older
Total mortality (follow up between 2 and 5 years)
8randomized trialsseriousanot seriousbnot seriousseriouscnone462/3617 (12.8%)439/3084 (14.2%)

RR 0.97

(0.87 to 1.10)

4 fewer per 1000

(from 19 fewer to 14 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

CRITICAL
Cardiovascular mortality and morbidity (follow up between 2 and 5 years)
7randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone296/3547 (8.3%)344/2999 (11.5%)

RR 0.75

(0.65 to 0.87)

29 fewer per 1000

(from 40 fewer to 15 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

CRITICAL
Cerebrovascular mortality and morbidity (follow up between 2 and 5 years)
7randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone120/3547 (3.4%)157/2999 (5.2%)

RR 0.66

(0.52 to 0.83)

18 fewer per 1000

(from 25 fewer to 9 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

CRITICAL
Coronary heart disease mortality and morbidity (follow up between 2 and 5 years)
6randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousdnone48/2690 (1.8%)53/2573 (2.1%)

RR 0.82

(0.56 to 1.20)

4 fewer per 1000

(from 9 fewer to 4 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

CRITICAL
End-stage renal disease – not reported
Cognitive impairment/dementia – not reported
Discontinuation due to adverse effects – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio

Explanations

a

Lack of blinding, incomplete outcome reporting and selective outcome reporting in the majority (example – 11 of 13 for total mortality) of trials. Three trials were funded by industry.

b

Even though there is statistical inconsistency (I-squared 52%), all estimates suggest the same direction of effect and only one of the CIs does not overlap with the others.

c

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the lower end of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be an important benefit.

d

The 95% CI is precise around the line of no effect, suggesting trivial benefit or trivial harm.

Table 33Evidence profile 4l: Dual alpha- and beta-blockers compared to placebo in individuals with hypertension

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsDual alpha- and beta-blockersPlaceboRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Source
Wong 2015(58) – Cochrane Review – BP-lowering efficacy of dual alpha- and beta-blockers for primary HTN
Systolic BP
8randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone

MD 5.59 mmHg lower

(7.47 lower to 3.7 lower)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

IMPORTANT
Diastolic BP
8randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone

MD 3.88 mmHg lower

(4.95 lower to 2.82 lower)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

IMPORTANT
Heart rate
7randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone

MD 4.62 beats/min lower

(5.71 lower to 3.54 lower)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

NOT IMPORTANT
Pulse pressure
8randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone

MD 1.89 mmHg lower

(3.58 lower to 0.2 lower)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

NOT IMPORTANT
Withdrawal due to adverse effects
5randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone

RR 0.88

(0.54 to 1.42)

1 fewer per 1000

(from 1 fewer to 1 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

IMPORTANT

CI: Confidence interval; MD: Mean difference; RR: Risk ratio

Explanations

a

High risk of detection bias due to breaking of blinding.

Table 34Evidence profile 4m: Beta-1 selective beta-blocker compared to placebo in individuals with hypertension

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsBeta-1 selective beta-blockerPlaceboRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Source
Wong 2016(58) – Cochrane review – BP-lowering efficacy of beta-1 selective beta-blocker for primary HTN
Systolic BP
47randomized trialsseriousaseriousbnot seriousnot seriousnone

MD 10.4 mmHg lower

(11.1 lower to 9.7 lower)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

IMPORTANT
Diastolic BP
48randomized trialsseriousaseriousbnot seriousnot seriousnone

MD 8.3 mmHg lower

(8.7 lower to 7.8 lower)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

IMPORTANT
Heart rate
33randomized trialsseriousaseriousbnot seriousnot seriousnone

MD 10.9 beats/min lower

(11.5 lower to 10.4 lower)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

IMPORTANT
Pulse pressure
47randomized trialsseriousaseriousbnot seriousnot seriousnone

MD 1.8 mmHg lower

(2.3 lower to 1.2 lower)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

NOT IMPORTANT
Withdrawal due to adverse effects
3randomized trialsseriousaseriousbnot seriousnot seriousnone

RR 0.9

(0.5 to 1.5)

1 fewer per 1000

(from 2 fewer to 1 fewer)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

IMPORTANT

CI: Confidence interval; MD: Mean difference; RR: Risk ratio

Explanations

a

High risk of detection bias due to loss of blinding.

b

Significant heterogeneity – I-squared > 50%.

Table 35Evidence profile4n: Angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEi) compared to placebo for non-dialysis chronic kidney disease stages 3–5

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsACEiPlaceboRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Source
Zhang 2020(59) (Network meta-analysis)
Kidney events (defined as a composite of any of the following: doubling of serum creatinine level, 50% decline in GFR, or ESKD) (follow up >6 months)a
13brandomized trialsnot seriouscnot seriousdnot seriousenot seriousnone9.2%f

OR 0.54

(0.41 to 0.73)

40 fewer per 1000

(from 52 fewer to 23 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁⨁

HIGH

Cardiovascular events (follow up >6 months)g
13brandomized trialsnot seriouscnot seriousdnot seriousnot seriousnone20.6%f

OR 0.73

(0.64 to 0.84)

47 fewer per 1000

(from 64 fewer to 27 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁⨁

HIGH

Cardiovascular death (follow up >6 months)
13brandomized trialsnot seriouscnot seriousdnot seriousnot seriousnone10.6%f

OR 0.73

(0.63 to 0.86)

26 fewer per 1000

(from 36 fewer to 13 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁⨁

HIGH

All-cause mortality (follow up >6 months)h
13brandomized trialsnot seriouscnot seriousdnot seriousnot seriousnone15.9%f

OR 0.77

(0.66 to 0.91)

32 fewer per 1000

(from 48 fewer to 12 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁⨁

HIGH

Hyperkalaemia (follow up >6 months)i
13brandomized trialsseriousjnot seriousdnot seriousseriousknone2.3%f

OR 1.55

(0.93 to 2.59)

12 more per 1000

(from 2 fewer to 34 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Cough (follow up >6 months)
13brandomized trialsseriousjnot seriousdnot seriousnot seriousnone1.4%f

OR 2.90

(1.76 to 4.77)

26 more per 1000

(from 10 more to 49 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Hypotension (follow up >6 months)
13brandomized trialsseriousjnot seriousdnot seriousseriousknone0.6%f

OR 1.79

(1.05 to 3.04)

5 more per 1000

(from 0 fewer to 12 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Oedema (follow up >6 months)
13brandomized trialsseriousjnot seriousdnot seriousvery seriousknone0.3%f

OR 2.11

(0.33 to 13.53)

3 more per 1000

(from 2 fewer to 36 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Stroke – not reported
Myocardial infarction – not reported
Heart failure – not reported
Cognitive impairment/dementia – not reported
BP reduction and control – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; OR: Odds ratio

Explanations

a

The OR of kidney events for ACEi vs placebo is 0.86 (0.37,2.01) for the subgroup of patients with diabetic kidney disease.

b

The total number of trials informing direct comparisons is 13. It is not clear from the review which of these trials examined the outcome of interest.

c

The weight of each of the included studies was not provided. However, five of the 13 included studies were judged to be at unclear risk of bias in the domains of random sequence generation, allocation concealment, blinding of outcome assessors and selective outcome reporting. However, we did not downgrade risk of bias because subgroup analysis including studies with low risk of bias showed consistent results.

d

The review does not provide I-squared or the confidence intervals of individual studies to assess heterogeneity. The review states “Loop-specific inconsistency approach was used to assess the disagreement between direct and indirect evidence in the loop, and the consistency results were considered not significant when 95% CIs of inconsistency factors included zero or ROR included one. ROR is defined as the difference that OR value of direct evidence minus OR value of indirect evidence.”

e

We did not downgrade indirectness because 50% drop in eGFR and doubling in serum creatinine are validated surrogates for ESKD.

f

The baseline risk wasn’t reported in the network meta-analysis. The values were abstracted directly from the included studies.

g

The OR of cardiovascular events for ACEi vs placebo is 0.89 (0.74,1.07) for the subgroup of patients with diabetic kidney disease.

h

The OR of All-cause mortality for ACEi vs placebo is 0.88 (0.73,1.06) for the subgroup of patients with diabetic kidney disease.

i

The OR of hyperkalemia for ACEi vs placebo is 2.08 (0.68,6.33) for the subgroup of patients with diabetic kidney disease.

j

The weight of each of the included studies was not provided. However, five of the 13 included studies were judged to be at unclear risk of bias in the domains of random sequence generation, allocation concealment, blinding of outcome assessors and selective outcome reporting.

k

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the upper end of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be an important harm.

Table 36Evidence profile 4o Angiotensin II receptor blocker (ARB) compared to placebo for non-dialysis chronic kidney disease stages 3–5

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsARBPlaceboRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Source
Zhang 2020(59) (Network meta-analysis)
Kidney events (defined as a composite of any of the following: doubling of serum creatinine level, 50% decline in GFR, or ESKD) (follow up >6 months)a
3brandomized trialsnot seriousnot seriouscnot seriousdseriousenone385/1797 (21.4%)

OR 0.76

(0.58 to 1.00)

43 fewer per 1000

(from 78 fewer to 0 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Cardiovascular events (follow up >6 months)f
2grandomized trialsnot seriousnot seriouscnot seriousseriousenone187/1035 (18.1%)

OR 0.83

(0.70 to 0.98)

26 fewer per 1000

(from 47 fewer to 3 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Cardiovascular mortality (follow up >6 months)
2grandomized trialsnot seriousnot seriouscnot seriousvery serioushnone86/1035 (8.3%)

OR 1.16

(0.88 to 1.53)

12 more per 1000

(from 9 fewer to 39 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

All-cause mortality (follow up >6 months)i
3brandomized trialsnot seriousnot seriouscnot seriousvery serioushnone298/1797 (16.6%)

OR 1.01

(0.82 to 1.25)

1 more per 1000

(from 26 fewer to 33 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Hyperkalaemia (follow up >6 months)j
3brandomized trialsnot seriousnot seriouscnot seriousnot seriousnone36/1797 (2.0%)

OR 2.08

(1.44 to 2.99)

21 more per 1000

(from 9 more to 38 more)

⨁⨁⨁⨁

HIGH

Hypotension (follow up >6 months)
1krandomized trialsnot seriousnot seriouscnot seriousseriouslnone6/751 (0.8%)

OR 1.12

(0.43 to 2.90)

1 more per 1000

(from 5 fewer to 15 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Stroke – not reported
Myocardial infarction – not reported
Cognitive impairment/dementia – not reported
Heart failure – not reported
BP reduction and control – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; OR: Odds ratio

Explanations

a

The OR of kidney events for ARB vs placebo is 0.82 (0.72,0.95) for the subgroup of patients with diabetic kidney disease.

b

The total number of trials informing direct comparisons is three.

c

The review does not provide I-squared or the confidence intervals of individual studies to assess heterogeneity. The review states “Loop-specific inconsistency approach was used to assess the disagreement between direct and indirect evidence in the loop, and the consistency results were considered not significant when 95% CIs of inconsistency factors included zero or RoR included one. RoR is defined as the difference that OR value of direct evidence minus OR value of indirect evidence.”

d

We did not downgrade indirectness because 50% drop in eGFR and doubling in serum creatinine are validated surrogates for ESKD.

e

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the lower end of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be an important benefit.

f

The OR of cardiovascular events for ARB vs placebo is 0.87 (0.75,1.01) for the subgroup of patients with diabetic kidney disease.

g

2 is the total number of trials informing direct comparisons.

h

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the upper and lower end of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be important harm and benefit.

i

The OR of All-cause mortality for ARB vs placebo is 0.98 (0.81,1.18) for the subgroup of patients with diabetic kidney disease.

j

The OR of hyperkalemia for ARB vs placebo is 2.15 (1.25,3.69) for the subgroup of patients with diabetic kidney disease.

k

1 is the total number of trials informing direct comparisons.

l

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the upper end of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be an important harm.

Table 37Evidence profile 4p: BP-lowering drugs compared to placebo or no treatment for patients with a history of stroke or transient ischaemic attack

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsBP-lowering drugsPlacebo or no treatmentRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Source
Zonneveld 2018(5) (BP-lowering treatment for preventing recurrent stroke, major vascular events, and dementia in patients with a history of stroke or transient ischaemic attack)
Recurrent stroke of any type (median follow up 12 to 47 months)ab
8randomized trialsseriouscnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone1525/17 594 (8.7%)1773/17 516 (10.1%)

RR 0.81

(0.70 to 0.93)

19 fewer per 1000

(from 30 fewer to 7 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Time to recurrent stroke (median follow up 12 to 47 months)
3randomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousseriousdnone

RR 0.82

(0.65 to 1.03)

1 fewer per 1000

(from 1 fewer to 1 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Major vascular event (composite of non-fatal stroke, non-fatal myocardial infarction, or death from any vascular cause) (median follow up 12 to 47 months)e
4randomized trialsseriousfnot seriousnot seriousseriousgnone1941/14 301 (13.6%)2168/14 329 (15.1%)

RR 0.90

(0.78 to 1.04)

15 fewer per 1000

(from 33 fewer to 6 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Myocardial infarction (median follow up 12 to 47 months)
6randomized trialsserioushnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone330/17 374 (1.9%)364/17 373 (2.1%)

RR 0.90

(0.72 to 1.11)

2 fewer per 1000

(from 6 fewer to 2 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Vascular death (median follow up 12 to 47 months)
6randomized trialsseriousinot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone690/17 374 (4.0%)810/17 373 (4.7%)

RR 0.85

(0.76 to 0.95)

7 fewer per 1000

(from 11 fewer to 2 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Death by any cause (median follow up 12 to 47 months)
8randomized trialsseriousjnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone1363/17 594 (7.7%)1386/17 516 (7.9%)

RR 0.98

(0.91 to 1.05)

2 fewer per 1000

(from 7 fewer to 4 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Dementia (median follow up 12 to 47 months)
2randomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousseriousgnone196/3320 (5.9%)224/3351 (6.7%)

RR 0.88

(0.73 to 1.06)

8 fewer per 1000

(from 18 fewer to 4 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Ischaemic stroke (median follow up 12 to 47 months)
3randomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousseriousgnone1026/13 367 (7.7%)1136/13 334 (8.5%)

RR 0.86

(0.70 to 1.05)

12 fewer per 1000

(from 26 fewer to 4 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Haemorrhagic stroke (median follow up 12 to 47 months)
2randomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone96/13 197 (0.7%)143/13 240 (1.1%)

RR 0.66

(0.39 to 1.12)

4 fewer per 1000

(from 7 fewer to 1 more)

⨁⨁⨁⨁

HIGH

End-stage kidney disease – not reported
Heart failure – not reported
Adverse effects – not reported
BP reduction and control – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio

Explanations

a

Subgroup analysis by intervention showed that the relative risk for recurrent stroke of any type for ACEi vs placebo is 0.73 with CI of [0.64, 0.84]. Subgroup analysis by intervention showed that the RR for recurrent stroke of any type for ARBs vs placebo is 0.95 with CI of [0.87, 1.03]. Subgroup analysis by intervention showed that the RR for recurrent stroke of any type for beta-blockers vs placebo is 0.94 with CI of [0.75, 1.18]. Subgroup analysis by intervention showed that the RR for recurrent stroke of any type for CCBs vs placebo is 0.55 with CI of [0.18, 1.67]. Subgroup analysis by intervention showed that the RR for recurrent stroke of any type for diuretics vs placebo is 0.72 with CI of [0.59, 0.87].

b

Subgroup analysis based on type of index event showed that Relative risk of BP-lowering drugs (BPLDs) versus placebo or no treatment (subgroups) for the outcome of TIA is 0.77 with CI of [0.50, 1.18], for the outcome of Ischaemic stroke is 0.76 with CI of [0.64, 0.89], and for Intracerebral haemorrhage is 0.59 with CI of [0.39, 0.89].

c

The trials that have more than 50% of the weight of the pooled estimate were judged to be at high/unclear risk of bias in the domain of allocation concealment, blinding of participants and personnel, blinding of outcome assessment, incomplete outcome data and selective reporting.

d

The confidence interval crosses the line of no effect, and suggests that the difference could be importantly less, or no effect. The events rate is not available.

e

Subgroup analysis by intervention showed that the relative risk for major vascular events for ACEi vs placebo is 0.76 with CI of [0.68, 0.85]. Subgroup analysis by intervention showed that the RR for major vascular events for ARBs vs placebo is 0.94 with CI of [0.88, 1.01]. Subgroup analysis by intervention showed that the RR for major vascular events for beta-blocker is 1.01 with CI of [0.84, 1.21].

f

Two of the included trials which have more than 30% of the weight of pooled estimate were judged to be at high/unclear risk of bias in the domains of blinding of participants and personnel and selective reporting.

g

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the lower end of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be an important benefit.

h

The trials that have around 44.5% of the weight of the pooled estimate were judged to be at unclear risk of bias in the domain of blinding of participants and personnel and at high/unclear risk of bias in the domain of selective reporting and incomplete outcome data.

i

The trials that have around 44.5% of the weight of the pooled estimate were judged to be at high/unclear risk of bias in the domain of selective reporting and incomplete outcome data.

j

The trial that have around 23% of the weight of effect estimate were judged to be at high/unclear risk of bias in the domains of random sequence generation, allocation concealment, selective reporting and incomplete outcome data.

Table 38Evidence profile 4q: Antihypertensive drug therapy compared to placebo or no treatment in individuals with pre-hypertensive levels of BP (systolic BP 120–139 mmHg and diastolic BP <90 mmHg)

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsAntihypertensive drug therapyPlacebo or no treatmentRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Source
Hong 2018(1) – Effects of antihypertensive treatment on major cardiovascular events in populations within pre-hypertensive levels: a systematic review and meta-analysis
All-cause mortality (pooled analysis) mean intervention time 3.4 years
19randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone3936/51 930 (7.6%)4053/51 552 (7.9%)

RR 0.97

(0.91 to 1.04)

2 fewer per 1000

(from 7 fewer to 3 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

CRITICAL
All-cause mortality (average SBP 120-130) mean intervention time 3.4 years
5randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousseriousbnone7.9%

RR 0.95

(0.76 to 1.18)

4 fewer per 1000

(from 19 fewer to 14 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

CRITICAL
All-cause mortality (average SBP 130-139) mean intervention time 3.4 years
14randomized trialsseriousaseriouscnot seriousnot seriousnone7.9%

RR 0.98

(0.90 to 1.05)

2 fewer per 1000

(from 8 fewer to 4 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

CRITICAL
Cardiovascular mortality
22randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone2694/53 699 (5.0%)2746/53 730 (5.1%)

RR 0.99

(0.92 to 1.07)

1 fewer per 1000

(from 4 fewer to 4 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

CRITICAL
Myocardial infarction
19randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousseriouscnone2177/50 788 (4.3%)2437/50 839 (4.8%)

RR 0.92

(0.84 to 1.01)

4 fewer per 1000

(from 8 fewer to 0 fewer)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

CRITICAL
Stroke
28randomized trialsseriousaseriousdnot seriousnot seriousnone1772/59 913 (3.0%)1995/59 949 (3.3%)

RR 0.86

(0.76 to 0.96)

5 fewer per 1000

(from 8 fewer to 1 fewer)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

CRITICAL
Heart failure
17randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousseriouscnone2037/47 411 (4.3%)2255/47 031 (4.8%)

RR 0.90

(0.83 to 0.97)

5 fewer per 1000

(from 8 fewer to 1 fewer)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

IMPORTANT

CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio

Explanations

a

Data inadequate to assess allocation concealment (selection bias). Over 25% of trials did not blind participants and investigators (performance and detection bias). over 25% did not report intention to treat analysis.

b

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 1%), the lower end of the 95% CI crossed this threshold suggesting that there may be an important benefit.

c

Confidence interval crosses the clinical decision threshold between recommending and not recommending treatment.

d

For heterogeneity. Confidence intervals do not overlap. I-squared >50%.

PICO question 5: In adults with hypertension requiring pharmacological treatment, which drugs (BB, CCB, diuretics, ACE, or ARB vs BB, CCB, diuretics, ACE, or ARB in head-to-head studies) should be used as first-line agents?

Systematic review for desirable and undesirable effects

Evidence was considered in respect of the following components (Table 39) to determine which drugs (BB, CCB, diuretics, ACE, or ARB vs BB, CCB, diuretics, ACE, or ARB in head-to-head studies) should be used as first-line agents in adults with hypertension requiring pharmacological treatment (Table 40Table 66).

Table 39Components for PICO question 5

PopulationInterventionComparisonOutcomeSubgroup
Adult men and women >18 years old with primary HTN requiring pharmacological treatment BB, CCB, diuretics, ACEi, or ARBBB, CCB, diuretics, ACEi, or ARB (head-to-head studies)
-

death (all-cause mortality)

-

cardiovascular death (death from MI, sudden cardiac death or stroke)

-

stroke

-

myocardial infarction

-

end-stage renal disease

-

cognitive impairment/dementia

-

heart failure events

-

adverse effects

-

BP reduction and control (if data on CVD events are absent)

Based on different effect modifiers such as:
-

estimated cardiovascular risk

-

pre-existing CAD

-

stroke

-

diabetes

-

age

-

sex

-

chronic kidney disease

-

race/ethnicity

-

level of baseline BP

Table 40Evidence profile 5a: Renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitor (RAASi) compared to calcium channel blocker (CCB) for individuals with hypertension

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsRAASiCCBRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Setting
Outpatient with mean follow-up of 4.9 years
Source
Chen 2018(60): First-line drugs inhibiting the renin angiotensin system versus other first-line antihypertensive drug classes for HTN
All-cause death (mean follow-up of 4.5 years)
5randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousseriousbnone2258/17 648 (12.8%)2175/17 578 (12.4%)

RR 1.03

(0.98 to 1.09)

4 more per 1000

(from 2 fewer to 11 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

CRITICAL
Cardiovascular events (mean follow-up of 4.5 years)
6randomized trialsseriousaseriouscnot seriousseriousdnone3064/17 646 (17.4%)3124/17 577 (17.8%)

RR 0.98

(0.93 to 1.02)

4 fewer per 1000

(from 12 fewer to 4 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

IMPORTANT
Heart failure events (mean follow-up of 4.5 years)
5randomized trialsseriousanot seriousenot seriousnot seriousnone1051/17 606 (6.0%)1256/17 537 (7.2%)

RR 0.83

(0.77 to 0.90)

12 fewer per 1000

(from 16 fewer to 7 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

IMPORTANT
Myocardial infarction (mean follow-up of 4.5 years)
5randomized trialsseriousaseriousfnot seriousnot seriousnone1203/17 557 (6.9%)1192/17 486 (6.8%)

RR 1.01

(0.93 to 1.09)

1 more per 1000

(from 5 fewer to 6 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

IMPORTANT
Stroke (mean follow-up of 4.5 years)
4randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone810/17 371 (4.7%)676/17 302 (3.9%)

RR 1.19

(1.08 to 1.32)

7 more per 1000

(from 3 more to 13 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

IMPORTANT
End-stage kidney disease (mean follow-up of 4.5 years)
4randomized trialsseriousgnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone218/9784 (2.2%)245/9767 (2.5%)

RR 0.88

(0.74 to 1.05)

3 fewer per 1000

(from 7 fewer to 1 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

IMPORTANT
Systolic BP change (mean follow-up of 4.5 years)
20randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone18 24918 188

MD 1.23 mmHg higher

(0.9 higher to 1.56 higher)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

IMPORTANT
Diastolic BP change (mean follow-up of 4.5 years)
20randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone18 24918 188-

MD 0.98 mmHg higher

(0.79 higher to 1.18 higher)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

IMPORTANT
Cardiovascular death – not reported
Cognitive impairment/dementia – not reported
Adverse events – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio; MD: Mean difference

Explanations

a

The VALUE trial (which has 26-41% of the weight of the pooled estimates) has a high risk of bias due to differential co-interventions. The other studies have unclear risk of bias in multiple domains.

b

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the upper end of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be an important harm.

c

The point estimates vary with regards to direction and magnitude of effect, and some of the CIs do not overlap. There is high statistical heterogeneity, as reflected by the I-squared (71%).

d

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the lower end of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be an important benefit.

e

Even though there is statistical inconsistency, all estimates suggest the same direction of effect and only 1 of the CIs does not overlap with the others.

f

The point estimates vary importantly with regards to direction and magnitude of effect, and some of the CIs do not overlap. There is high statistical heterogeneity, as reflected by the I-squared (82%).

g

The trial that has significant weight of the pooled estimate (42.7%) was judged at unclear risk of bias in the domains of random sequence generation, allocation concealment and blinding of outcome assessment.

Table 41Evidence profile 5b: Renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitor (RAASi) compared to thiazide for individuals with hypertension

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsRAASiThiazideRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Source
Chen 2018(60)
All-cause mortality (mean follow-up of 4.9 years)
1randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousseriousbnone1314/9054 (14.5%)2203/15 255 (14.4%)

RR 1.00

(0.94 to 1.07)

0 fewer per 1000

(from 9 fewer to 10 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

CRITICAL
Cardiovascular events (mean follow-up of 4.9 years)
2randomized trialsseriouscnot seriousnot seriousseriousbnone1851/9100 (20.3%)2959/15 279 (19.4%)

RR 1.05

(1.00 to 1.11)

10 more per 1000

(from 0 fewer to 21 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

IMPORTANT
Heart failure events (mean follow-up of 4.9 years)
1randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone612/9054 (6.8%)870/15 255 (5.7%)

RR 1.19

(1.07 to 1.31)

11 more per 1000

(from 4 more to 18 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

IMPORTANT
Myocardial infarction (mean follow-up of 4.9 years)
2randomized trialsseriouscnot seriousnot seriousseriousdnone781/9100 (8.6%)1414/15 279 (9.3%)

RR 0.93

(0.86 to 1.01)

6 fewer per 1000

(from 13 fewer to 1 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

IMPORTANT
Stroke (mean follow-up of 4.9 years)
1randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone457/9054 (5.0%)675/15 255 (4.4%)

RR 1.14

(1.02 to 1.28)

6 more per 1000

(from 1 more to 12 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

IMPORTANT
End-stage kidney disease (mean follow-up of 4.9 years)
1randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousseriousenone126/9054 (1.4%)193/15 255 (1.3%)

RR 1.10

(0.88 to 1.37)

1 more per 1000

(from 2 fewer to 5 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

IMPORTANT
Systolic BP change (mean follow-up of 4.9 years)
10randomized trialsseriousfseriousgnot seriousnot seriousnone10 13516 247

MD 1.6 mmHG higher

(1.2 higher to 1.99 higher)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

IMPORTANT
Diastolic BP change (mean follow-up of 4.9 years)
9randomized trialsseriousfserioushnot seriousnot seriousnone10 10116 234

MD 0.12 mmHg lower

(0.36 lower to 0.13 higher)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

IMPORTANT
Cardiovascular death – not reported
Cognitive impairment/dementia – not reported
Adverse events – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio; MD: Mean difference

Explanations

a

The trial ALLHAT 2002 was judged at unclear risk of bias in blinding outcome assessment and selective reporting in another review (Olde Engberink 2015).

b

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the upper end of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be an important harm.

c

The ALLHAT 2002 was considered to have unclear risk of bias in blinding outcome assessment and selective reporting in another review (Olde Engberink 2015). The Schram 2005 was judged by authors to have unclear risk of bias in multiple domains including random sequence generation, allocation concealment and blinding of outcome assessment.

d

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the lower end of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be an important benefit.

e

The confidence interval crosses the line of no effect, and suggests that the difference could be importantly less, or importantly more. The extremes of confidence interval will lead to different decisions.

f

The trial that has most of the weight of the pooled estimate (>80%) was judged at unclear risk of bias at unclear risk of bias in blinding outcome assessment and selective reporting in another review (Olde Engberink 2015).

g

The point estimates vary importantly with regards to direction and magnitude of effect, and some of the CIs do not overlap. There is high statistical heterogeneity, as reflected by the I-squared (80%).

h

The point estimates vary importantly with regards to direction and magnitude of effect, and some of the CIs do not overlap. There is high statistical heterogeneity, as reflected by the I-squared (70%).

Table 42Evidence profile 5c: Renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitor (RAASi) compared to beta-blocker (BB) for individuals with hypertension

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsRAASiBBRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Source
Chen 2018(60)
All-cause mortality (mean follow-up of 4.8 years)
1randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousseriousbnone383/4605 (8.3%)431/4588 (9.4%)

RR 0.89

(0.78 to 1.01)

10 fewer per 1000

(from 21 fewer to 1 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

CRITICAL
Cardiovascular events (mean follow-up of 4.8 years)
2randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone584/4628 (12.6%)659/4611 (14.3%)

RR 0.88

(0.80 to 0.98)

17 fewer per 1000

(from 29 fewer to 3 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

IMPORTANT
Heart failure (mean follow-up of 4.8 years)
1randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousseriouscnone153/4605 (3.3%)161/4588 (3.5%)

RR 0.95

(0.76 to 1.18)

2 fewer per 1000

(from 8 fewer to 6 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

IMPORTANT
Myocardial infarction (mean follow-up of 4.8 years)
2randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousseriousdnone199/4628 (4.3%)189/4611 (4.1%)

RR 1.05

(0.86 to 1.27)

2 more per 1000

(from 6 fewer to 11 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

IMPORTANT
Stroke (mean follow-up of 4.8 years)
1randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone232/4605 (5.0%)309/4588 (6.7%)

RR 0.75

(0.63 to 0.88)

17 fewer per 1000

(from 25 fewer to 8 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

IMPORTANT
End-stage kidney disease (mean follow-up of 4.8 years)
1randomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousvery seriousenone0/23 (0.0%)1/23 (4.3%)

RR 0.33

(0.01 to 7.78)

29 fewer per 1000

(from 43 fewer to 295 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

IMPORTANT
Systolic BP change (mean follow-up of 4.8 years)
16randomized trialsseriousfseriousgnot seriousnot seriousnone54495456

MD 0.55 mmHg lower

(1.22 lower to 0.11 higher)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

IMPORTANT
Diastolic BP change (mean follow-up of 4.8 years)
16randomized trialsseriousfserioushnot seriousnot seriousnone54495456

MD 0.48 mmHg higher

(0.14 higher to 0.83 higher)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

IMPORTANT
Cardiovascular mortality – not reported
Cognitive impairment/dementia – not reported
Adverse events – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio; MD: Mean difference

Explanations

a

The trial that has most of the weight of the pooled estimate (LIFE trial) >99% was judged to have unclear risk of bias for allocation concealment.

b

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the lower end of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be an important benefit.

c

The confidence interval crosses the line of no effect, and suggests that the difference could be importantly less, or importantly more. The extremes of the confidence interval will lead to different decisions.

d

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the upper end of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be an important harm.

e

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the lower and upper ends of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be important benefit and harm.

f

The trial that has most of the weight of the pooled estimate (LIFE trial) >70% was judged to have unclear risk of bias for allocation concealment.

g

The point estimates vary importantly with regards to direction and magnitude of effect, and some of the CIs do not overlap. There is statistical heterogeneity, as reflected by the I-squared (45%).

h

The point estimates vary importantly with regards to direction and magnitude of effect, and some of the CIs do not overlap. There is high statistical heterogeneity, as reflected by the I-squared (60%).

Table 43Evidence profile 5d: Angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEi) compared to angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) in individuals with hypertension

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsACEiARBRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Source
Dimou 2019(55). Only adverse event outcome is from Xu 2015(61).
All-cause mortality (treatment duration was between 6 and 156 weeks)
2arandomized trialsseriousbnot seriousc,dnot seriousseriousenone402/2959 (13.6%)

RR 0.96

(0.80 to 1.14)

5 fewer per 1000

(from 27 fewer to 19 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOWf

CRITICAL
Cardiovascular mortality (treatment duration was between 6 and 156 weeks)
1grandomized trialsseriousbnot seriousd,hnot seriousseriousenone297/2959 (10.0%)

RR 0.87

(0.67 to 1.14)

13 fewer per 1000

(from 33 fewer to 14 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOWf

CRITICAL
Myocardial Infarction (fatal and nonfatal) (treatment duration was between 6 and 156 weeks)
1arandomized trialsseriousbnot seriousdnot seriousseriousenone275/2959 (9.3%)

RR 1.02

(0.75 to 1.37)

2 more per 1000

(from 23 fewer to 34 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOWf

CRITICAL
Stroke (fatal and nonfatal) (treatment duration was between 6 and 156 weeks)
1arandomized trialsseriousbnot seriousdnot seriousseriousinone177/2959 (6.0%)

RR 1.13

(0.87 to 1.46)

8 more per 1000

(from 8 fewer to 28 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOWf

CRITICAL
Development and/or hospitalization for heart failure (treatment duration was between 6 and 156 weeks)
1jrandomized trialsseriousbnot seriousdnot seriousnot seriousnone214/2959 (7.2%)

RR 0.71

(0.54 to 0.93)

21 fewer per 1000

(from 33 fewer to 5 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATEf

IMPORTANT
Reduction in systolic BP (treatment duration was between 6 and 156 weeks)
28randomized trialsseriousbnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone

MD 0.59 mmHg higher

(0.21 lower to 1.38 higher)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

IMPORTANT
Reduction in diastolic BP (treatment duration was between 6 and 156 weeks)
29randomized trialsseriousbseriousknot seriousnot seriousnone

MD 0.62 mmHg higher

(0.06 lower to 1.3 higher)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

IMPORTANT
Adverse events (treatment duration was between 6 and 156 weeks)
13randomized trialsseriouslnot seriousnot seriousvery seriousinone238/9188 (2.6%)280/9139 (3.1%)

OR 1.53

(0.91 to 2.58)

15 more per 1000

(from 3 fewer to 45 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Cognitive impairment/dementia – not reported
End-stage kidney disease – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio; MD: Mean difference; OR: Odds ratio

Explanations

a

These results are from a network meta-analysis that included one trial directly comparing ARB to placebo, three trials comparing ACEi to placebo and two trials comparing ACEi to ARB with a total of six trials in the network.

b

Included trials were judged to have an unclear risk selection (random sequence generation, allocation concealment) bias and attrition bias.

c

The Q decomposition indicated heterogeneity within designs with Q: 6.76; df:3; p:0.08.

d

Adequate data to assess inconsistency and incoherence was not provided in this manuscript. We reached out to the authors for clarification/additional data, the authors have not responded.

e

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the lower and upper ends of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be important benefit and harm.

f

This review did not provide baseline risk or Forest plots; baseline risk is imputed based on the rate in control arms of some of the other antihypertensive trials.

g

These results are from a network meta-analysis that included two trials directly comparing ARB to placebo, two trials comparing ACEi to placebo and one trial comparing ACEi to ARB with a total of five trials in the network.

h

The Q decomposition indicated inconsistency between designs Q: 5.83, df: 1, p:0.02.

i

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the upper end of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be an important harm.

j

These results are from a network meta-analysis that included one trial directly comparing ARB to placebo, three trials comparing ACEi to placebo and one trial comparing ACEi to ARB with a total of five trials in the network.

k

The point estimates vary importantly with regards to direction and magnitude of effect, and some of the CIs do not overlap. There is high statistical heterogeneity, as reflected by the I-squared (64%).

l

The authors do not provide detailed risk of bias judgment. However, some of the included studies was judged to have low Jadad score.

Table 44Evidence profile 5e: Beta-blocker (BB) compared to diuretic for individuals with hypertension

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsBBDiureticRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Source
Wiysonge 2017(62)
Mortality (follow up of at least 1 year)
5randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone389/9195 (4.2%)368/9046 (4.1%)

RR 1.04

(0.91 to 1.19)

2 more per 1000

(from 4 fewer to 8 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

CRITICAL
Stroke (follow up of at least 1 year)b
4randomized trialsseriouscseriousdnot seriousseriousenone130/9142 (1.4%)108/8993 (1.2%)

RR 1.17

(0.65 to 2.09)

2 more per 1000

(from 4 fewer to 13 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

CRITICAL
Coronary heart disease (follow up of at least 1 year)f
4randomized trialsseriouscseriousgnot seriousseriousenone323/9142 (3.5%)294/8993 (3.3%)

RR 1.12

(0.82 to 1.54)

4 more per 1000

(from 6 fewer to 18 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

IMPORTANT
Cardiovascular death (follow up of at least 1 year)
3randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousserioushnone217/8802 (2.5%)195/8650 (2.3%)

RR 1.09

(0.90 to 1.32)

2 more per 1000

(from 2 fewer to 7 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

CRITICAL
Total cardiovascular disease (follow up of at least 1 year)
4randomized trialsseriouscnot seriousnot seriousseriousenone469/9142 (5.1%)409/8993 (4.5%)

RR 1.13

(0.99 to 1.28)

6 more per 1000

(from 0 fewer to 13 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

IMPORTANT
Withdrawal due to adverse effects (follow up of at least 1 year)
3randomized trialsseriousaseriousinot seriousvery seriousenone862/5845 (14.7%)625/5721 (10.9%)

RR 1.69

(0.95 to 3.00)

75 more per 1000

(from 5 fewer to 218 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

IMPORTANT
Cognitive impairment/dementia – not reported
Myocardial infarction – not reported
Heart failure – not reported
End-stage kidney disease – not reported
BP reduction – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio

Explanations

a

Included studies were judged to be at high risk of bias in the domains of incomplete outcome data and unclear risk of bias in other domains.

b

Subgroup analysis based on the type of beta-blocker showed a RR of 0.92 with CI [0.55,1.54] in Cardio-selective beta-blocker and RR of 2.28 with CI of [1.31,3.95] for non-selective beta-blocker for the outcome of stroke.

c

Included studies were judged to be at high risk of bias in the domains of incomplete outcome data, blinding of participants and personnel and unclear risk of bias in other domains.

d

The point estimates vary importantly with regards to direction and magnitude of effect. There is high statistical heterogeneity, as reflected by the I-squared (72.9%).

e

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the upper end of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be an important harm.

f

Subgroup analysis based on age reported RR of 0.97 with CI of [0.81,1.17] in patients less than 65 years of age and 1.63 with CI of [1.15,2.32] in patients with more than 65 years of age for the outcome of total coronary heart disease.

g

The point estimates vary with regards to direction and magnitude of effect, and some of the CIs do not overlap. There is high statistical heterogeneity, as reflected by the I-squared (66.2%).

h

The confidence interval crosses the line of no effect, and suggests that the difference could be importantly less, or importantly more. The extremes of the confidence interval will lead to different decisions.

i

The point estimates vary importantly with regards to direction and magnitude of effect, and some of the CIs do not overlap. There is high statistical heterogeneity, as reflected by the I-squared (94.68%).

Table 45Evidence profile 5f: Beta-blocker (BB) compared to calcium channel blocker (CCB) for individuals with hypertension

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsBBCCBRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Source
Wiysonge 2017(62)
Mortality (follow up of at least 1 year)
4randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousseriousbnone1768/22 525 (7.8%)1637/22 300 (7.3%)

RR 1.07

(1.00 to 1.14)

5 more per 1000

(from 0 fewer to 10 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

CRITICAL
Stroke (follow up of at least 1 year)
3randomized trialsseriouscnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone637/22 084 (2.9%)512/22 083 (2.3%)

RR 1.24

(1.11 to 1.40)

6 more per 1000

(from 3 more to 9 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

IMPORTANT
Coronary heart disease (follow up of at least 1 year)
3randomized trialsseriouscnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone902/22 084 (4.1%)860/22 083 (3.9%)

RR 1.05

(0.96 to 1.15)

2 more per 1000

(from 2 fewer to 6 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

IMPORTANT
Cardiovascular death (follow up of at least 1 year)
4randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousseriousbnone785/22 525 (3.5%)700/22 300 (3.1%)

RR 1.15

(0.92 to 1.46)

5 more per 1000

(from 3 fewer to 14 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

CRITICAL
Total cardiovascular disease (follow up of at least 1 year)
2randomized trialsseriousdnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone950/10 059 (9.4%)800/9856 (8.1%)

RR 1.18

(1.08 to 1.29)

15 more per 1000

(from 6 more to 24 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

IMPORTANT
Withdrawal due to adverse events (follow up of at least 1 year)
2randomized trialsseriouseseriousfnot seriousseriousbnone427/10 775 (4.0%)354/10 816 (3.3%)

RR 1.20

(0.71 to 2.04)

7 more per 1000

(from 9 fewer to 34 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

IMPORTANT
Cognitive impairment/dementia – not reported
Myocardial infarction – not reported
Heart failure – not reported
End-stage kidney disease – not reported
BP reduction – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio

Explanations

a

The two trials that have most of the weight of the pooled estimate (>90%) were judged at unclear risk of bias in the domain of incomplete outcome data.

b

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the upper end of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be an important harm.

c

The two trials that have most of the weight of the pooled estimate (>90%) were judged at high risk of bias in the domain of blinding of participants and personnel and unclear risk of bias in the domain of incomplete outcome data.

d

The trial that has most of the weight of the pooled estimate (99.33%) was judged at unclear risk of bias at the domain of blinding of participants and personnel and unclear risk of bias in the domain of incomplete outcome data.

e

The two included trials were judged to have high risk of bias in the domain of blinding of participants and personnel and unclear risk of bias in the domains of incomplete outcome data and allocation concealment.

f

The point estimates vary importantly with regards to direction and magnitude of effect, and some of the CIs do not overlap. There is high statistical heterogeneity, as reflected by the I-squared (93.45%).

Table 46Evidence profile 5g: Beta-blocker (BB) compared to renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitor (RAASi) for individuals with hypertension

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsBBRAASiRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Source
Wiysonge 2017(62)
Mortality (follow up of at least 1 year)
3randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousseriousbnone496/5387 (9.2%)455/5441 (8.4%)

RR 1.10

(0.98 to 1.24)

8 more per 1000

(from 2 fewer to 20 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Stroke (follow up of at least 1 year)
2randomized trialsseriouscnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone326/4946 (6.6%)253/5005 (5.1%)

RR 1.30

(1.11 to 1.53)

15 more per 1000

(from 6 more to 27 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Coronary heart disease (follow up of at least 1 year)
2randomized trialsseriouscnot seriousnot seriousseriousdnone236/4946 (4.8%)271/5005 (5.4%)

RR 0.90

(0.76 to 1.06)

5 fewer per 1000

(from 13 fewer to 3 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Cardiovascular death (follow up of at least 1 year)
3randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousseriousbnone270/5387 (5.0%)253/5441 (4.6%)

RR 1.09

(0.92 to 1.29)

4 more per 1000

(from 4 fewer to 13 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Cardiovascular disease (follow up of at least 1 year)
3randomized trialsseriousenot seriousfnot seriousvery seriousgnone675/5387 (12.5%)625/5441 (11.5%)

RR 1.00

(0.72 to 1.38)

0 fewer per 1000

(from 32 fewer to 44 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Withdrawal due to adverse effects (follow up of at least 1 year)
2randomized trialsseriousenot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone951/4946 (19.2%)687/5005 (13.7%)

RR 1.41

(1.29 to 1.54)

56 more per 1000

(from 40 more to 74 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Cognitive impairment/dementia – not reported
Myocardial infarction – not reported
Heart failure – not reported
End-stage kidney disease – not reported
BP reduction – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio

Explanations

a

The trial that has most of the weight of the pooled estimate (>80%) was judged at unclear risk of bias in the domain of allocation concealment.

b

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the upper end of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be an important harm.

c

The trial that has most of the weight of the pooled estimate (>70%) was judged at unclear risk of bias in the domain of allocation concealment. The other study was judged to have high risk of bias in the domain of blinding of participants and personnel and unclear risk of bias in the domain of incomplete outcome data.

d

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the lower end of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be an important benefit.

e

The two trials that have most of the weight of pooled estimate (>80%) were judged at high risk of bias in the domain of blinding of participants and personnel and at unclear risk of bias in the domains of allocation concealment and incomplete outcome data.

f

The point estimates vary importantly with regards to direction and magnitude of effect, and some of the CIs do not overlap. There is high statistical heterogeneity, as reflected by the I-squared (73.82%).

g

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the lower and upper ends of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be an important benefit and harm.

Table 47Evidence profile 5h: Renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitor (RAASi) compared to calcium channel blocker (CCB) for hypertensive patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsRAASiCCBRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Sources
Wang, 2018(63), Bangalore, 2016(64)
All-cause mortality (follow up of at least 6 months)
4randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousseriousbnone778/4625 (16.8%)786/4702 (16.7%)

RR 1.03

(0.91 to 1.16)

5 more per 1000

(from 15 fewer to 27 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Major cardiovascular events (follow up of at least 6 months)
2randomized trialsseriouscnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone-/814337/802 (42.0%)

RR 0.78

(0.66 to 0.91)

92 fewer per 1000

(from 143 fewer to 38 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Heart failure (follow up of at least 6 months)
4randomized trialsseriousdnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone433/4413 (9.8%)563/4490 (12.5%)

RR 0.72

(0.61 to 0.83)

35 fewer per 1000

(from 49 fewer to 21 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Stroke (follow up of at least 6 months)
4randomized trialsseriousdnot seriousnot seriousseriousenone296/4413 (6.7%)256/4490 (5.7%)

RR 1.21

(0.97 to 1.51)

12 more per 1000

(from 2 fewer to 29 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Myocardial infarction (follow up of at least 6 months)
4randomized trialsseriousdseriousfnot seriousseriousg,hnone-/436427/567 (4.8%)i

RR 1.01

(0.86 to 1.18)

0 fewer per 1000

(from 7 fewer to 9 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

End-stage kidney disease (follow up of at least 6 months)
2randomized trialsseriousjnot seriousnot seriousseriousknone187/4089 (4.6%)230/4164 (5.5%)

RR 0.80

(0.64 to 1.00)

11 fewer per 1000

(from 20 fewer to 0 fewer)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Systolic BP change (follow up of at least 6 months)
11randomized trialsseriouslnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone25782703

MD 0.07 mmHg lower

(1.11 lower to 0.97 higher)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Diastolic BP change (follow up of at least 6 months)
11randomized trialsseriouslnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone25782703

MD 0.12 mmHg higher

(0.49 lower to 0.72 higher)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Cardiovascular mortality (follow up of at least 1 year)
10randomized trialsseriousmnot seriousnot seriousnseriousenone132/2770 (4.8%)112/3103 (3.6%)

RR 1.17

(0.90 to 1.50)

6 more per 1000

(from 4 fewer to 18 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Withdrawal due to adverse events (follow up of at least 1 year)
5randomized trialsseriousonot seriousnot seriousvery seriousbnone138/1225 (11.3%)158/1241 (12.7%)

RR 0.89

(0.65 to 1.22)

14 fewer per 1000

(from 45 fewer to 28 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Cognitive impairment/dementia – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio; MD: Mean difference

Explanations

a

The two trials that comprise 23% weight of the pooled estimates were judged to be at high risk of bias because of inappropriate administration of co-intervention and unclear risk of bias in the domains of random sequence generation and allocation concealment.

b

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the lower and upper ends of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be important benefit and harm.

c

The two included trials were judged to be at high risk of bias because of inappropriate administration of co-intervention and unclear risk of bias in the domains of random sequence generation, allocation concealment and blinding of participants and personnel.

d

The two trials that have most of the weight of the pooled estimate (>80%) were judged at unclear risk of bias in the domains of random sequence generation, allocation concealment, blinding of participants and personnel and blinding of outcome assessment.

e

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the upper end of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be an important harm.

f

The point estimates vary importantly with regards to direction and magnitude of effect, and some of the CIs do not overlap. There is high statistical heterogeneity, as reflected by the I-squared (78%).

g

The confidence interval crosses the line of no effect, and suggests that the difference could be importantly less, or importantly more. The extremes of the confidence interval will lead to different decisions.

h

The events rate was not provided by the review.

i

The SR doesn’t provide event rates so it was extracted from IDNT, 2003.

j

The two included studies were judged at unclear risk of bias in the domains of random sequence generation, allocation concealment, blinding of participants and personnel and blinding of outcome assessment.

k

The confidence interval crosses the line of no effect, and suggests that the difference could be importantly less, or no effect.

l

The two trials that have most weight of the pooled effect estimates (>55%) were judged to be at unclear risk of bias in the domains of random sequence generation, allocation concealment and blinding of outcome assessment.

m

The two trials that have most weight of the effect estimates (39%) were judged at unclear risk of bias in the domain of random sequence generation.

n

We did not downgrade indirectness because only one included studies (ABCD normotensive) included patients with DM and normotensive and it contributed to 5.3% of the weight of pooled effect estimates.

o

The trials that have most weight of the effect estimates (47%) were judged at unclear risk of bias in the domains of random sequence generation, allocation concealment and blinding.

Table 48Evidence profile 5i: Renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitor (RAASi) compared to beta-blocker (BB) for hypertensive patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsRAASiBBRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Source
Wang 2018(63)
Systolic blood pressure (follow up of at least 6 months)
4randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone678712-

MD 3.25 mmHg lower

(5.36 lower to 1.14 lower)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

IMPORTANT
Diastolic blood pressure (follow up of at least 6 months)
4randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone678712-

MD 0.76 mmHg higher

(0.35 lower to 1.87 higher)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

IMPORTANT
All-cause mortality (follow up of at least 1 year)
2randomized trialsseriousbnot seriousnot seriousvery seriouscnone138/986 (14.0%)163/967 (16.9%)

RR 0.84

(0.47 to 1.51)

27 fewer per 1,000

(from 89 fewer to 86 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Cardiovascular mortality (follow up of at least 1 year)
2randomized trialsseriousbnot seriousnot seriousvery seriouscnone77/986 (7.8%)90/967 (9.3%)

RR 0.87

(0.47 to 1.60)

12 fewer per 1,000

(from 49 fewer to 56 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Stroke (follow up of at least 1 year)
2randomized trialsseriousbnot seriousnot seriousvery seriouscnone72/986 (7.3%)82/967 (8.5%)

RR 0.88

(0.64 to 1.21)

10 fewer per 1,000

(from 31 fewer to 18 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Myocardial infarction (follow up of at least 1 year)
2randomized trialsseriousbnot seriousnot seriousvery seriouscnone102/986 (10.3%)96/967 (9.9%)

RR 1.02

(0.73 to 1.40)

2 more per 1,000

(from 27 fewer to 40 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

End-stage kidney disease (follow up of at least 1 year)
1randomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousvery seriousdnone4/400 (1.0%)4/358 (1.1%)

RR 0.90

(0.22 to 3.58)

1 fewer per 1,000

(from 9 fewer to 29 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Heart failure (follow up of at least 1 year)
1randomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousvery seriouscnone12/400 (3.0%)9/358 (2.5%)

RR 1.19

(0.50 to 2.83)

5 more per 1,000

(from 13 fewer to 46 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Withdrawal due to adverse events (follow up of at least 1 year)
2randomized trialsseriousbnot seriousnot seriousvery seriouscnone90/986 (9.1%)134/967 (13.9%)

RR 0.51

(0.23 to 1.14)

68 fewer per 1,000

(from 107 fewer to 19 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Cognitive impairment/dementia - not reported

CI: Confidence interval; MD: Mean difference; RR: Risk ratio

Explanations

a

The trial that has most of the weight of the pooled estimate (>75%) was judged at high risk of bias in the domain of allocation concealment.

b

One of the two included studies was judged at high risk of bias in the domain of allocation concealment.

c

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the lower and upper ends of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be important benefit and harm.

d

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the upper end of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be an important harm.

Table 49Evidence profile 5j: Renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitor (RAASi) compared to diuretic for hypertensive patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsRAASiDiureticsRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Sources
Wang, 2018(63), Bangalore, 2016(64)
All-cause mortality (follow up of at least 6 months)
2randomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousseriousanone675/3796 (17.8%)1147/6277 (18.3%)

RR 0.99

(0.89 to 1.10)

2 fewer per 1000

(from 20 fewer to 18 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Heart failure (follow up of at least 6 months)
1randomized trialsseriousbnot seriousnot seriousseriouscnone365/3510 (10.4%)581/5994 (9.7%)

RR 1.15

(1.00 to 1.32)

15 more per 1000

(from 0 fewer to 31 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Stroke (follow up of at least 6 months)
1randomized trialsseriousbnot seriousnot seriousseriouscnone260/3510 (7.4%)414/5994 (6.9%)

RR 1.06

(0.89 to 1.26)

4 more per 1000

(from 8 fewer to 18 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Myocardial infarction (follow up of at least 6 months)
3randomized trialsseriousdnot seriousnot seriousseriouse,fnone3/283 (1.1%)g

RR 0.96

(0.84 to 1.10)

0 fewer per 1000

(from 2 fewer to 1 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

End-stage kidney disease (follow up of at least 6 months)
1randomized trialsseriousbnot seriousnot seriousseriouscnone105/3510 (3.0%)156/5994 (2.6%)

RR 1.09

(0.82 to 1.45)

2 more per 1000

(from 5 fewer to 12 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Systolic BP (follow up of at least 6 months)
3randomized trialsserioushnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone14242289

MD 2.54 mmHg higher

(1.29 higher to 3.79 higher)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Diastolic BP (follow up of at least 6 months)
3randomized trialsserioushnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone14242289

MD 0.88 mmHg higher

(0.09 higher to 1.66 higher)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Cardiovascular death (follow up of at least 1 year)
1randomized trialsseriousinot seriousnot seriousvery seriousc,jnone1/286 (0.3%)2/283 (0.7%)

RR 0.50

(0.05 to 5.46)

4 fewer per 1000

(from 7 fewer to 32 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Withdrawal due to adverse events (follow up of at least 1 year)
1randomized trialsseriousinot seriousnot seriousvery seriousa,jnone15/286 (5.2%)14/283 (4.9%)

RR 1.06

(0.51 to 2.20)

3 more per 1000

(from 24 fewer to 59 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Cognitive impairment/dementia – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio; MD: Mean difference

Explanations

a

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the lower and upper ends of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be important benefit and harm.

b

The included trial was judged at unclear risk of bias in the domain of blinding of outcome assessment.

c

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the upper end of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be an important harm.

d

The trial that has most of the weight of the pooled estimate (99%) was judged at unclear risk in the domain of blinding of outcome assessment.

e

The extremes of the confidence interval will lead to different decision. The confidence interval suggests the possibility of a small benefit and a small harm.

f

The events rate was not reported in the review.

g

The systematic review does not provide events rate and total number of patients per arm so we extracted baseline risk from NESTOR trial even though the weight of this trial is 0.2%.

h

The two trials that have most of the weight of the pooled estimate (>90%) were judged at unclear risk of bias in the domains of random sequence generation, allocation concealment and blinding of outcome assessment.

i

The included trial was judged at unclear risk of allocation concealment.

j

There is a very low events rate.

Table 50Evidence profile 5k: Calcium channel blocker (CCB) use compared to non-calcium channel blocker use for elderly patients with hypertension

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsCCB useNon-CCB useRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Source
Hussain 2018(56):
Risk of developing dementia (follow up duration was between 3 and 13 years)a
10bobservational studiesnot seriouscseriousdseriousenot seriousnone

RR 0.70

(0.58 to 0.85)

1 fewer per 1000

(from 1 fewer to 1 fewer)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Risk of developing dementia in subgroup with Alzheimer’s disease (follow up duration was between 3 and 13 years)
5fobservational studiesnot seriousgserioushseriousenot seriousnone1511/16 205 (9.3%)1024/11 672 (8.8%)

RR 0.87

(0.90 to 0.94)

11 fewer per 1000

(from 9 fewer to 5 fewer)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio

Explanations

a

No event rates provided

b

Seven out of the 10 included studies were observational.

c

Two of the included studies were open label extension of trials. However, they only contribute to 16% of the weight of pooled estimates. The review states that all included studies are of high quality using Newcastle Ottawa scale without any further details.

d

The point estimates vary importantly with regards to direction and magnitude of effect, and some of the CIs do not overlap. There is high statistical heterogeneity, as reflected by the I-squared (88%).

e

The review includes comparators of placebo and active treatment in one analysis.

f

Four out of the five included studies were observational.

g

One of the included studies was open label extension of trial but it only contributes to 2.9% of the weight of pooled estimates. The review states that all included studies are of high quality using Newcastle Ottawa scale without any further details.

h

The point estimates vary with regards to direction and magnitude of effect, and some of the CIs do not overlap. There is high statistical heterogeneity, as reflected by the I-squared (50%). This is borderline judgement.

Table 51Evidence profile 5l: Renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitor (RAASi) compared to diuretic for black patients with hypertension

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsRAASisDiureticsRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Source
Palla 2017(65)
All-cause mortality (mean follow-up of 4 years)
2a,bobservational studiesnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousvery seriouscnone641/8547 (7.5%)911/10 706 (8.5%)

OR 1.16

(0.93 to 1.45)

12 more per 1000

(from 5 fewer to 34 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Myocardial infarction (mean follow-up of 4 years)
2a,dobservational studiesseriouseseriousfnot seriousvery seriousgnone276/8547 (3.2%)404/10 706 (3.8%)h

OR 1.86

(0.53 to 6.52)

30 more per 1000

(from 17 fewer to 166 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Stroke (mean follow-up of 4 years)
2a,hobservational studiesseriousenot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone288/8547 (3.4%)296/10 706 (2.8%)

OR 1.59

(1.16 to 2.17)

16 more per 1000

(from 4 more to 30 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Heart failure (mean follow-up of 4 years)
2a,iobservational studiesseriouseseriousjnot seriousvery seriouscnone310/8547 (3.6%)313/10 706 (2.9%)

OR 1.96

(0.87 to 4.43)

27 more per 1000

(from 4 fewer to 88 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Composite outcome of All-cause mortality, myocardial infarction, stroke, heart failure (mean follow-up of 4 years)
2a,kobservational studiesseriouseseriouslnot seriousnot seriousnone1515/8547 (17.7%)1924/10 706 (18.0%)

OR 1.35

(1.24 to 1.46)

49 more per 1000

(from 34 more to 63 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Cardiovascular mortality – not reported
Cognitive impairment/dementia – not reported
End–stage kidney disease – not reported
Adverse events – not reported
BP reduction – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; OR: Odds ratio

Explanations

a

One of the included studies with higher weight is RCT (ALLHAT) and the other is propensity match cohort (Bangalore).

b

The odds ratio of mortality for RAASi vs diuretics in the included RCT (ALLHAT trial) was 1.07 with CI of [0.95, 1.21].

c

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the upper end of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be an important harm.

d

The odds ratio of myocardial infarction for RAASi vs diuretics in the included RCT (ALLHAT trial) was 1.09 with CI [0.93, 1.29].

e

The review reports that all included studies are at low risk of bias however it does not give details about different RoB domains. However, the ALLHAT 2005 study that has most of the weight of the pooled estimate (>50%) was judged at unclear risk of bias in the domain of blinding of outcome assessment in another review.

f

The point estimates vary importantly with regards to direction and magnitude of effect, and some of the CIs do not overlap. There is high statistical heterogeneity, as reflected by the I-squared (81%).

g

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the lower and upper ends of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be important benefit and harm.

h

Baseline risk abstracted from Nestor, 2004.

i

The odds ratio of stroke for RAASi vs diuretics in the included RCT (ALLHAT trial) was 1.41 with CI [1.17, 1.7].

j

The odds ratio of heart failure for RAASi vs diuretics in the included RCT (ALLHAT trial) was 1.32 with [1.1, 1.59].

k

The point estimates vary importantly with regards to direction and magnitude of effect, and some of the CIs do not overlap. There is high statistical heterogeneity, as reflected by the I-squared (92%).

l

The odds ratio of composite outcomes for RAASi vs diuretics in the included RCT (ALLHAT trial) was 1.24 with CI [1.13, 1.36].

m

The point estimates vary importantly with regards to direction and magnitude of effect, and some of the CIs do not overlap. There is high statistical heterogeneity, as reflected by the I-squared (94%).

Table 52Evidence profile 5m: Renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitor (RAASi) compared to beta-blocker (BB) for black patients with hypertension

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsRAASiBeta-blockerRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Source
Palla 2017(65)
All-cause mortality (mean follow-up of 4 years)
2a,bobservational studiesnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousseriouscnone166/3377 (4.9%)186/3376 (5.5%)

OR 0.84

(0.60 to 1.19)

8 fewer per 1000

(from 21 fewer to 10 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Myocardial infarction (mean follow-up of 4 years)
3d,eobservational studiesnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousseriousfnone44/3647 (1.2%)28/3639 (0.8%)

OR 1.67

(0.88 to 3.18)

5 more per 1000

(from 1 fewer to 16 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Stroke (mean follow-up of 4 years)
3d,gobservational studiesnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousseriousfnone77/3647 (2.1%)60/3639 (1.6%)

OR 1.29

(0.91 to 1.81)

5 more per 1000

(from 1 fewer to 13 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Heart failure (mean follow-up of 4 years)
2a,hobservational studiesnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousvery seriousfnone94/3377 (2.8%)53/3376 (1.6%)

OR 1.52

(0.58 to 4.00)

8 more per 1000

(from 7 fewer to 44 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Composite outcomes (All-cause mortality, myocardial infarction, stroke, heart failure) (mean follow-up of 4 years)
3aobservational studiesnot seriousseriousinot seriousnot seriousnone403/3647 (11.1%)342/3639 (9.4%)

OR 1.20

(1.03 to 1.40)

17 more per 1000

(from 3 more to 33 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Cardiovascular mortality – not reported
Cognitive impairment/dementia – not reported
End–stage kidney disease – not reported
Adverse events – not reported
BP reduction – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; OR: Odds ratio

Explanations

a

The study with higher weight is observational (Bangalore) and the other studies are RCTs.

b

The odds ratio of mortality for RAASi vs BB in the included RCT (AASK trial) was 0.67 with CI [0.42, 1.05].

c

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the lower and upper ends of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be important benefit and harm.

d

One of the three included studies is observational.

e

The odds ratio of myocardial infarction for RAASi vs BBs in the included RCT (AASK trial) was 1.06 with CI [0.55, 2.04]. The odds ratio of myocardial infarction for RAASi vs BBs in the included RCT (LIFE trial) was 2.17 with CI [0.81, 5.79].

f

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the upper end of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be an important harm.

g

The odds ratio of stroke for RAASi vs BBs in the included RCT (AASK trial) was 1.00 with CI [0.55, 1.81]. The odds ratio of stroke for RAASi vs BBs in the included RCT (LIFE trial) was 2.04 with CI [1, 4.17].

h

The odds ratio of heart failure for RAASi vs BBs in the included RCT (AASK trial) was 0.9 with CI [0.49, 1.68].

i

The point estimates vary importantly with regards to direction and magnitude of effect, and some of the CIs do not overlap. There is high statistical heterogeneity, as reflected by the I-squared (81%).

Table 53Evidence profile 5n: Renin-angiotensin-aldosterone-system inhibitor (RAASi) compared to calcium channel blocker (CCB) for black patients with hypertension

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsRAASiCCBRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Source
Palla 2017(65)
All-cause mortality (mean follow-up of 4 years)
3aobservational studiesnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousseriousbnone694/8154 (8.5%)623/7938 (7.8%)

OR 1.10

(0.98 to 1.23)

7 more per 1000

(from 1 fewer to 16 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Myocardial infarction (mean follow-up of 4 years)
3aobservational studiesseriouscnot seriousnot seriousvery seriousbnone296/8154 (3.6%)253/7938 (3.2%)

OR 1.69

(0.81 to 3.51)

21 more per 1000

(from 6 fewer to 72 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Stroke (mean follow-up of 4 years)
3aobservational studiesseriouscnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone325/8154 (4.0%)204/7938 (2.6%)

OR 1.56

(1.31 to 1.87)

14 more per 1000

(from 8 more to 21 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Heart failure (mean follow-up of 4 years)
3aobservational studiesseriouscseriousdnot seriousvery seriousenone350/8154 (4.3%)318/7938 (4.0%)

OR 1.24

(0.71 to 2.18)

9 more per 1000

(from 11 fewer to 43 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Composite outcome (All-cause mortality, myocardial infarction, stroke, heart failure (mean follow-up of 4 years)
3aobservational studiesseriouscseriousfnot seriousnot seriousnone1665/8154 (20.4%)1398/7938 (17.6%)

OR 1.23

(1.13 to 1.34)

32 more per 1000

(from 18 more to 47 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Cardiovascular mortality – not reported
Cognitive impairment/dementia – not reported
End–stage kidney disease – not reported
Adverse events – not reported
BP reduction – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; OR: Odds ratio

Explanations

a

One of the three included studies was observational (Bangalore).

b

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the upper end of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be an important harm.

c

The review reports that all included studies are at low risk of bias, however it does not give details about different RoB domains. The ALLHAT 2005 study that has most of the weight of the pooled estimate (>50%) was judged at unclear risk of bias in the domain of blinding of outcome assessment in another review.

d

The point estimates vary importantly with regards to magnitude of effect, and some of the CIs do not overlap. There is high statistical heterogeneity, as reflected by the I-squared (86%).

e

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the lower and upper ends of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be important benefit and harm.

f

The point estimates vary importantly with regards to magnitude of effect, and some of the CIs do not overlap. There is high statistical heterogeneity, as reflected by the I-squared (94%).

Table 54Evidence profile 5o: Calcium channel blocker (CCB) compared to non-calcium channel blocker antihypertensives for Asian populations with hypertension

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsCCBnon-CCB antihypertensivesRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Source
Tran 2017(66)
Cardiovascular mortality (follow-up of at least 1 year)
7randomized trialsseriousanot seriousseriousbseriousc,dpublication bias strongly suspectede48/9377 (0.5%)43/9391 (0.5%)

RR 1.10

(0.72 to 1.67)

0 fewer per 1000

(from 1 fewer to 3 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Major adverse cardiac events (follow-up of at least 1 year)
9randomized trialsseriousanot seriousseriousbnot seriousnone498/9963 (5.0%)489/9969 (4.9%)

RR 1.02

(0.90 to 1.15)

1 more per 1000

(from 5 fewer to 7 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Stroke (follow-up of at least 1 year)
9randomized trialsseriousanot seriousseriousbnot seriousnone211/9963 (2.1%)217/9969 (2.2%)

RR 0.97

(0.80 to 1.17)

1 fewer per 1000

(from 4 fewer to 4 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Heart failure (follow-up of at least 1 year)
6randomized trialsseriousanot seriousseriousbseriousc,dnone52/5053 (1.0%)50/5049 (1.0%)

RR 1.01

(0.51 to 2.00)

0 fewer per 1000

(from 5 fewer to 10 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

All-cause mortality – not reported
Cognitive impairment/dementia – not reported
Myocardial infarction – not reported
End–stage kidney disease – not reported
Adverse events – not reported
BP reduction – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio

Explanations

a

The trials were judged at high risk of bias in the domains of randomization and blinding. However, the authors did not report the risk of bias assessment in details for each of the included trials.

b

We downgraded one level because the meta-analysis included two studies comparing CCB monotherapy or combination to non-CCB monotherapy or combination i.e. not all included studies examined head to head antihypertensive monotherapy.

c

The confidence interval crosses the line of no effect, and suggests that the difference could be importantly less, or importantly more.

d

There is a very low events rate.

e

There was evidence of publication bias based on Egger analysis.

Table 55Evidence profile 5p: Calcium channel blocker (CCB) compared to angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) for Asian populations with hypertension

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsCCBARBRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Source
Tran 2017(66)
Cardiovascular mortality (follow-up of at least 1 year)
3randomized trialsseriousanot seriousseriousbseriousc,dnone23/4606 (0.5%)17/4614 (0.4%)

RR 1.35

(0.72 to 2.53)

1 more per 1000

(from 1 fewer to 6 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Major adverse cardiac events (follow-up of at least 1 year)
5randomized trialsseriousanot seriousseriousbnot seriousnone270/5192 (5.2%)271/5192 (5.2%)

RR 0.99

(0.83 to 1.18)

1 fewer per 1000

(from 9 fewer to 9 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Stroke (follow-up of at least 1 year)
5randomized trialsseriousanot seriousseriousbseriouscnone104/5192 (2.0%)116/5192 (2.2%)

RR 0.93

(0.67 to 1.29)

2 fewer per 1000

(from 7 fewer to 6 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Heart failure (follow-up of at least 1 year)
4randomized trialsseriousanot seriousseriousbseriousenone40/4021 (1.0%)39/4017 (1.0%)

RR 1.05

(0.41 to 2.67)

0 fewer per 1000

(from 6 fewer to 16 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

All-cause mortality – not reported
Cognitive impairment/dementia – not reported
Myocardial infarction – not reported
End-stage kidney disease – not reported
Adverse events – not reported
BP reduction – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio

Explanations

a

The trials were judged at high risk of bias in the domains of randomization and blinding. However, the authors did not report the risk of bias assessment in details for each of the included trials.

b

We downgraded one level because the meta-analysis included two studies comparing CCB monotherapy or combination to non-CCB monotherapy or combination i.e. not all included studies compared head to head antihypertensive monotherapy.

c

The confidence interval crosses the line of no effect, and suggests that the difference could be importantly less, or importantly more. The extremes of the confidence interval will lead to different decisions.

d

There is a very low events rate.

e

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the upper end of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be an important harm.

Table 56Evidence profile 5q: Angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor compared to angiotensin receptor blocker for hypertensive patients with myocardial infarction or heart failure

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsACEARBRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Source
Ohtsubo 2019(67)
Recurrence or new onset myocardial infarction (follow up between 6 and 54 months)
5randomized trialsnot seriousanot seriousseriousbnot seriouspublication bias strongly suspected836/13 374 (6.3%)866/13 336 (6.5%)

RR 0.97

(0.88 to 1.06)

2 fewer per 1000

(from 8 fewer to 4 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Hospitalization for heart failure (follow up between 6 and 54 months)
4randomized trialsnot seriousanot seriousseriousbseriouscpublication bias strongly suspectedd583/4798 (12.2%)599/4794 (12.5%)

RR 0.98

(0.84 to 1.14)

2 fewer per 1000

(from 20 fewer to 17 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Cardiovascular or total mortality (follow up between 6 and 54 months)
6randomized trialsnot seriousanot seriousseriousbseriouscnone3783/18 283 (20.7%)3831/18 245 (21.0%)

RR 0.98

(0.91 to 1.05)

4 fewer per 1000

(from 19 fewer to 10 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Cardiovascular events or stroke (follow up between 6 and 54 months)
5randomized trialsnot seriousanot seriousseriousbseriouscnone2579/13 374 (19.3%)2590/13 336 (19.4%)

RR 1.02

(0.94 to 1.11)

4 more per 1000

(from 12 fewer to 21 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Adverse events (follow up between 6 and 54 months)e
6randomized trialsnot seriousaseriousfseriousbnot seriouspublication bias strongly suspectedd4977/18 253 (27.3%)4303/18 221 (23.6%)

RR 1.40

(1.11 to 1.77)

94 more per 1000

(from 26 more to 182 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Cognitive impairment/dementia – not reported
End-stage kidney disease – not reported
BP reduction – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio

Explanations

a

Even though T-VENTURE 2009 trial was judged to be at high risk of bias in the domains of allocation concealment and blinding, we did not downgrade risk of bias because this trial has the lowest weight of the pooled effect estimate (weight <4%).

b

The review states that “Among the six RCTs, the proportion of hypertensive patients ranged from 36 to 68.8%”.

c

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the lower and upper ends of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be an important benefit and harm.

d

The funnel plot suggests possibility of publication bias.

e

The review states “ACEis caused many adverse events, such as cough, taste disturbance, rash, angioedema, and other such issues, while ARBs frequently caused hypotension and renal dysfunction.

f

The point estimates vary importantly with regards to direction and magnitude of effect, and some of the CIs do not overlap. There is high statistical heterogeneity, as reflected by the I-squared (96%).

Table 57Evidence profile 5r: Angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEi) compared to diuretics for non-dialysis chronic kidney disease stages 3–5

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsACEDiureticsRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Sources
Zhang 2020 (Network meta-analysis(59)); ALLHAT 2006(68)
Kidney events (defined as a composite of any of the following: doubling of serum creatinine level, 50% decline in GFR, or ESKD) (follow up >6 months)
1arandomized trialsseriousbnot seriouscnot seriousdseriouse,fnone259/5662 (4.6%)g

OR 0.76

(0.46 to 1.25)

11 fewer per 1000

(from 24 fewer to 11 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Cardiovascular events (follow up >6 months)
1arandomized trialsseriousbnot seriouscnot seriousseriouse,fnone870/2613 (33.3%)

OR 0.96

(0.73 to 1.25)

9 fewer per 1000

(from 66 fewer to 51 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

All-cause mortality (follow up >6 months)
1arandomized trialsseriousbnot seriouscnot seriousvery seriouse,fnone9/264 (3.4%)h

OR 0.52

(0.21 to 1.30)

16 fewer per 1000

(from 27 fewer to 10 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Hyperkalaemia (follow up >6 months)
1arandomized trialsseriousbnot seriouscnot seriousvery seriouse,fnone1/264 (0.4%)

OR 2.76

(0.70 to 10.89)

7 more per 1000

(from 1 fewer to 36 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Cardiovascular mortality – not reported
Stroke (follow up >6 months)i
1jrandomized trialsseriousbnot seriousnot seriousseriousknone99/1533 (6.5%)157/2613 (6.0%)

HR 1.10

(0.86 to 1.42)

6 more per 1000

(from 8 fewer to 24 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Cognitive impairment/dementia – not reported
Heart failure (follow up >6 months)l
1jrandomized trialsseriousbnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone191/1533 (12.5%)259/2613 (9.9%)

OR 1.29

(1.06 to 1.58)

25 more per 1000

(from 5 more to 49 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Nonfatal myocardial infarction and fatal coronary heart disease (follow up >6 months)m
1jrandomized trialsseriousbnot seriousnot seriousseriousnnone184/1533 (12.0%)318/2613 (12.2%)

HR 1.00

(0.84 to 1.20)

0 fewer per 1000

(from 18 fewer to 23 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

BP reduction and control – not reported
Combined cardiovascular disease (follow up >6 months)o
1jrandomized trialsseriousbnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone547/1533 (35.7%)870/2613 (33.3%)g

HR 1.12

(1.01 to 1.25)

32 more per 1000

(from 3 more to 64 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

CI: Confidence interval; OR: Odds ratio; HR: Hazard Ratio

Explanations

a

This outcome is informed by the network indirect comparison.

b

The included study was judged by another review (Lin, 2017)(134) to be at high risk of bias in the domain of selective reporting.

c

The review does not provide I-squared or the confidence intervals of individual studies to assess heterogeneity. The review states “Loop-specific inconsistency approach was used to assess the disagreement between direct and indirect evidence in the loop, and the consistency results were considered not significant when 95% CIs of inconsistency factors included zero or RoR included one. RoR is defined as the difference that OR value of direct evidence minus OR value of indirect evidence.”

d

We did not downgrade indirectness because 50% drop in eGFR and doubling in serum creatinine are validated surrogates for ESKD.

e

The confidence interval crosses the line of no effect, and suggests that the difference could be importantly less, or importantly more.

f

No direct comparison data is available for this outcome.

g

We extracted the events rate from the ALLHAT 2006 however this is the events from from all arms (thiazide, CCB and ACEi). The events rate for thiazide arm was not provided in the ALLHAT 2006.

h

There is no direct comparison between ACEi and diuretics for the outcome of mortality. We used the events rate from diuretics arm from COPE 2013 trial which has three arms: ARB, BB and thiazide.

i

In the subgroup of patients with GFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m2 and diabetes, the HR for stroke is 0.94 (0.62–1.43).

j

The result of this outcome is informed by the direct comparison of ACEi vs diuretics in the post hoc subgroup analysis of ALLHAT 2006.

k

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the upper end of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be an important harm.

l

In the subgroup of patients with GFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m2 and diabetes, the OR for heart failure is 1.44 (1.05–1.97).

m

In the subgroup of patients with GFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m2 and diabetes, the HR for nonfatal MI and fatal CHD is 1.03 (0.78–1.37).

n

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the upper and lower end of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be important harm and harm.

o

In the subgroup of patients with GFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m2 and diabetes, the HR for combined CVD is 1.08 (0.90–1.29).

Table 58Evidence profile 5s: Angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor (ACE) compared to calcium channel blocker (CCB) for non-dialysis chronic kidney disease stages 3–5

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsACECCBRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Source
Zhang 2020(59)
Kidney events (defined as a composite of any of the following: doubling of serum creatinine level, 50% decline in GFR, or ESKD) (follow up >6 months)
10arandomized trialsseriousbnot seriouscnot seriousdnot seriousnone22.7%e

OR 0.67

(0.50 to 0.89)

63 fewer per 1000

(from 99 fewer to 20 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Cardiovasuclar events (follow up >6 months)
10arandomized trialsseriousbnot seriouscnot seriousseriousfnone35.4%e

OR 0.99

(0.80 to 1.23)

2 fewer per 1000

(from 49 fewer to 49 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

cardiovascular mortality (follow up >6 months)
10arandomized trialsseriousbnot seriouscnot seriousvery seriousfnone22.4%e

OR 0.78

(0.48 to 1.28)

40 fewer per 1000

(from 102 fewer to 46 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

All-cause mortality (follow up >6 months)
10arandomized trialsseriousbnot seriouscnot seriousseriousgnone2.8%e

OR 0.78

(0.51 to 1.17)

6 fewer per 1000

(from 14 fewer to 5 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Hyperkalaemia (follow up >6 months)
10arandomized trialsseriousbnot seriouscnot seriousnot seriousnone0.7%e

OR 3.81

(1.58 to 9.20)

19 more per 1000

(from 4 more to 52 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Cough (follow up >6 months)
10arandomized trialsseriousbnot seriouscnot seriousnot seriousnone0.5%e

OR 8.20

(3.13 to 21.54)

33 more per 1000

(from 10 more to 88 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Hypotension (follow up >6 months)
10arandomized trialsseriousbnot seriouscnot seriousvery serioush,inone

OR 1.59

(0.59 to 4.33)

2 fewer per 1000

(from 4 fewer to 1 fewer)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Oedema (follow up >6 months)
10randomized trialsseriousbnot seriouscnot seriousnot seriousnone0.0%e

OR 0.16

(0.06 to 0.38)

0 fewer per 1000

(from 0 fewer to 0 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Stroke – not reported
Myocardial infarction – not reported
Cognitive impairment/dementia – not reported
Heart failure – not reported
BP reduction and control – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; OR: Odds ratio

Explanations

a

10 is the total number of trials informing direct pairwise comparisons.

b

The weight of each of the included studies was not provided however seven of the 10 included studies were judged to be at high risk of bias in the domains of blinding of participants, personnel, outcome assessors, incomplete outcome data and selective outcome reporting. Also 7 of the included studies were judged to be at unclear risk of bias in the domains of random sequence generation and allocation concealment.

c

The review does not provide I-squared or the confidence intervals of individual studies to assess heterogeneity. The review states “Loop-specific inconsistency approach was used to assess the disagreement between direct and indirect evidence in the loop, and the consistency results were considered not significant when 95% CIs of inconsistency factors included zero or RoR included one. RoR is defined as the difference that OR value of direct evidence minus OR value of indirect evidence.”

d

We did not downgrade indirectness because 50 % drop in eGFR and doubling in serum creatinine are validated surrogates for ESKD.

e

The baseline risk wasn’t reported in the network meta-analysis. The values were abstracted directly from the included studies.

f

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the upper and lower end of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be important benefit and harm.

g

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the lower end of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be an important benefit.

h

The confidence interval crosses the line of no effect, and suggests that the difference could be importantly less, or importantly more.

i

No events rate is available.

Table 59Evidence profile 5t: Angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor (ACE) compared to beta-blocker for non-dialysis chronic kidney disease stages 3–5

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsACEBeta-blockerRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Source
Zhang 2020(59)
Kidney events (defined as a composite of any of the following: doubling of serum creatinine level, 50% decline in GFR, or ESKD) (follow up >6 months)
3arandomized trialsseriousbnot seriouscnot seriousdnot seriousnone169/505 (33.5%)

OR 0.60

(0.37 to 0.96)

103 fewer per 1000

(from 178 fewer to 9 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Cardiovascular events (follow up >6 months)
1erandomized trialsseriousbnot seriouscnot seriousseriousf,gnone13/441 (2.9%)

OR 0.95

(0.64 to 1.42)

1 fewer per 1000

(from 10 fewer to 12 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Cardiovascular mortality (follow up >6 months)
1erandomized trialsnot seriousnot seriouscnot seriousvery seriousg,hnone3.5/441 (0.8%)

OR 1.01

(0.44 to 2.33)

0 fewer per 1000

(from 4 fewer to 10 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

All-cause mortality (follow up >6 months)
2irandomized trialsseriousjnot seriouscnot seriousseriousgnone13/457 (2.8%)

OR 0.60

(0.38 to 0.96)

11 fewer per 1000

(from 17 fewer to 1 fewer)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Hyperkalaemia (follow up >6 months)
3arandomized trialsseriousbnot seriouscnot seriousvery seriousg,hnone2/505 (0.4%)

OR 1.86

(0.64 to 5.41)

3 more per 1000

(from 1 fewer to 17 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Cough (follow up >6 months)
2irandomized trialsseriousbnot seriouscnot seriousnot seriousnone180/457 (39.4%)

OR 1.80

(1.08 to 3.00)

145 more per 1000

(from 19 more to 267 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Oedema (follow up >6 months)
2irandomized trialsseriousbnot seriouscnot seriousvery seriousfnone226/457 (49.5%)

OR 0.65

(0.22 to 1.91)

106 fewer per 1000

(from 317 fewer to 157 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Stroke – not reported
Cognitive impairment/dementia – not reported
Myocardial infarction – not reported
Heart failure – not reported
BP reduction and control – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; OR: Odds ratio

Explanations

a

3 is the total number of trials informing direct comparisons.

b

The weight of each of the included studies was not provided however all included studies were judged to be at high risk of bias in the domains of blinding of participants, personnel and outcome assessors.

c

The review does not provide I-squared or the confidence intervals of individual studies to assess heterogeneity. The review states “Loop-specific inconsistency approach was used to assess the disagreement between direct and indirect evidence in the loop, and the consistency results were considered not significant when 95% CIs of inconsistency factors included zero or RoR included one. RoR is defined as the difference that OR value of direct evidence minus OR value of indirect evidence.”

d

We did not downgrade indirectness because 50 % drop in eGFR and doubling in serum creatinine are validated surrogates for ESKD.

e

1 is the total number of trials informing direct comparisons.

f

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the upper end and lower of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be important harm and benefit.

g

There is a low number of events.

h

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the upper end of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be an important harm.

i

2 is the total number of trials informing direct comparisons.

j

The weight of each of the included studies was not provided however one of the included studies was at unclear risk of bias in the domains of random sequence generation and allocation concealment.

Table 60Evidence profile 5u: Angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor (ACE) compared to Angiotensin II receptor blocker (ARB) for non-dialysis chronic kidney disease stages 3–5

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsACEARBRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Source
Zhang 2020(59)
Kidney events (defined as a composite of any of the following: doubling of serum creatinine level, 50% decline in GFR, or ESKD) (follow up >6 months)
3arandomized trialsseriousbnot seriouscnot seriousdseriouse,fnone72/240 (30.0%)

OR 0.70

(0.52 to 0.97)

69 fewer per 1000

(from 118 fewer to 6 fewer)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Cardiovascular events (follow up >6 months)
2grandomized trialsseriousbnot seriouscnot seriousserioushnone34/212 (16.0%)

OR 0.88

(0.73 to 1.07)

16 fewer per 1000

(from 38 fewer to 9 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Cardiovascular death (follow up >6 months)
2grandomized trialsnot seriousnot seriouscnot seriousvery seriousinone88/729 (12.1%)j

OR 0.63

(0.46 to 0.86)

41 fewer per 1000

(from 61 fewer to 15 fewer)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

All-cause mortality (follow up >6 months)
3arandomized trialsnot seriousnot seriouscnot seriousvery seriousinone1/240 (0.4%)

OR 0.76

(0.59 to 0.98)

1 fewer per 1000

(from 2 fewer to 0 fewer)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Hyperkalaemia (follow up >6 months)
3arandomized trialsseriousbnot seriouscnot seriousvery seriousi,knone19/240 (7.9%)

OR 0.75

(0.45 to 1.23)

19 fewer per 1000

(from 42 fewer to 16 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Stroke – not reported
Cognitive impairment/dementia – not reported
Myocardial infarction – not reported
Heart failure – not reported
BP reduction and control – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; OR: Odds ratio

Explanations

a

The total number of trials informing direct comparisons is three.

b

The weight of each of the included studies was not provided, however all included studies were judged to be at high risk of bias in the domains of blinding of participants, personnel and outcome assessors.

c

The review does not provide I-squared or the confidence intervals of individual studies to assess heterogeneity. The review states “Loop-specific inconsistency approach was used to assess the disagreement between direct and indirect evidence in the loop, and the consistency results were considered not significant when 95% CIs of inconsistency factors included zero or RoR included one. RoR is defined as the difference that OR value of direct evidence minus OR value of indirect evidence.”

d

We did not downgrade indirectness because 50% drop in eGFR and doubling in serum creatinine are validated surrogates for ESKD.

e

The upper value of the confidence interval is very close to the line of no effect. The CI suggests almost no effect or important benefit.

f

There is a low number of events.

g

2 is the total number of trials informing direct comparisons.

h

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the lower end of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be an important benefit.

i

We downgraded imprecision two levels because of very low events rate.

j

The SR doesn’t provide absolute values so we abstracted it from Post hoc ONTARGET.

k

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the upper and lower end of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be an important harm and benefit.

Table 61Evidence profile 5v: Angiotensin II receptor blocker (ARB) compared to diuretics for non-dialysis chronic kidney disease stages 3–5

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsARBDiureticsRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Source
Zhang 2020(59); COPE 2013(69)
Kidney events (defined as a composite of any of the following: doubling of serum creatinine level, 50% decline in GFR, or ESKD) (follow up >6 months)
1arandomized trialsseriousbnot seriousnot seriouscvery seriousdnone

OR 1.07

(0.61 to 1.87)

1 fewer per 1000

(from 2 fewer to 1 fewer)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Hard composite cardiovascular events (cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction and non-fatal stroke excluding transient ischemic attack) (follow up of at least 3 years)
1erandomized trialsseriousbnot seriousnot seriousvery seriousf,gnone9/287 (3.1%)7/264 (2.7%)

HR 1.19

(0.44 to 3.20)

5 more per 1000

(from 15 fewer to 56 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

All-cause mortality (follow up of at least 3 years)
1erandomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousvery seriousf,gnone7/287 (2.4%)9/264 (3.4%)

HR 0.72

(0.27 to 1.93)

9 fewer per 1000

(from 25 fewer to 31 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Hyperkalaemia (follow up >6 months)
1arandomized trialsseriousbnot seriousnot seriousvery seriousg,h,inone8/287 (2.8%)1/264 (0.4%)

OR 3.70

(1.03 to 13.28)

10 more per 1000

(from 0 fewer to 44 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Cardiovascular mortality – not reported
Fatal and nonfatal stroke (follow up of at least 3 years)
1erandomized trialsseriousbnot seriousnot seriousvery seriousg,jnone7/287 (2.4%)3/264 (1.1%)

HR 2.15

(0.56 to 8.33)

13 more per 1000

(from 5 fewer to 79 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Myocardial infarction – not reported
Cognitive impairment/dementia – not reported
Heart failure events – not reported
BP reduction and control – not reported
The co-primary endpoints were defined as a composite of cardiovascular events and achievement of target BP. Cardiovascular events consisted of the following groups: sudden death, fatal or nonfatal stroke, fatal or nonfatal myocardial infarction, hospitalization due to unstable angina, new onset of heart failure (New York Heart Association class II-IV), new onset or worsening of peripheral arterial disease, and renal events (defined as serum creatinine level doubled to over 2 mg/dl, serum creatinine >=4.0 mg/dl, or renal dialysis). (follow up of at least 3 years)
1erandomized trialsseriousbnot seriousnot seriousvery seriousfnone15/287 (5.2%)13/264 (4.9%)

HR 1.08

(0.51 to 2.26)

4 more per 1000

(from 24 fewer to 59 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

CI: Confidence interval; OR: Odds ratio; HR: Hazard Ratio

Explanations

a

This outcome is informed by the indirect comparison only of the network meta-analysis.

b

The included trial was judged to be at high risk of bias in the domains of blinding of participants and personnel.

c

We did not downgrade indirectness because 50% drop in eGFR and doubling in serum creatinine are validated surrogates for ESKD.

d

The confidence interval crosses the line of no effect, and suggests that the difference could be importantly less, or importantly more.

e

When the direct comparison of network meta-analysis is informed by one trial we used the data of the trial. This outcome is informed by the direct comparison of ARB vs diuretics in the COPE 2013(69) trial.

f

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the upper and lower ends of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be important harm and benefit.

g

There is a low number of events.

h

The baseline risk was extracted from the COPE(69) trial.

i

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the upper end of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be an important harm.

j

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the upper end of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be an important harm.

Table 62Evidence profile 5w: Angiotensin II receptor blocker (ARB) compared to calcium channel blocker (CCB) for non-dialysis chronic kidney disease stages 3–5

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsARBCCBRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Source
Zhang 2020(59)
Kidney events (defined as a composite of any of the following: doubling of serum creatinine level, 50% decline in GFR, or ESKD) (follow up >6 months)
1a,brandomized trialsseriouscnot seriousdnot seriouseseriousf,gnone23/1186 (1.9%)

OR 0.94

(0.67 to 1.32)

1 fewer per 1000

(from 6 fewer to 6 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Cardiovascular events (follow up >6 months)
2hrandomized trialsseriouscnot seriousdnot seriousvery seriousinone376/1753 (21.4%)

OR 1.13

(0.91 to 1.39)

21 more per 1000

(from 15 fewer to 61 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Cardiovascular mortality (follow up >6 months)
1arandomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousdnot seriousvery seriousinone37/567 (6.5%)

OR 1.24

(0.83 to 1.86)

14 more per 1000

(from 10 fewer to 50 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

All-cause mortality (follow up >6 months)
2jrandomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousdnot seriousseriousfnone

OR 1.02

(0.71 to 1.46)

1 fewer per 1000

(from 1 fewer to 1 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Hyperkalaemia (follow up >6 months)
2jrandomized trialsseriouscnot seriousdnot seriousnot seriousnone

OR 5.10

(2.08 to 12.50)

5 fewer per 1000

(from 13 fewer to 2 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Cough (follow up >6 months)
2jrandomized trialsseriouscnot seriousdnot seriousvery seriousfnone

OR 1.69

(0.24 to 12.03)

2 fewer per 1000

(from 12 fewer to 0 fewer)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Hypotension (follow up >6 months)
2arandomized trialsseriouscnot seriousdnot seriousvery seriousfnone

OR 1.68

(0.20 to 14.38)

2 fewer per 1000

(from 14 fewer to 0 fewer)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Stroke – not reported
Cognitive impairment/dementia – not reported
Myocardial infarction – not reported
Heart failure – not reported
BP reduction and control – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; OR: Odds ratio

Explanations

a

1 is the total number of trials informing direct comparisons.

b

Since the CASE-J study provides the hazard ratio for each subgroup of CKD separately, we used the network meta-analysis OR for CKD 3-5.

c

The weight of each of the included studies was not provided, however the included study was judged to be at high risk of bias in the domains of blinding of participants and personnel.

d

The review does not provide I-squared or the confidence intervals of individual studies to assess heterogeneity. The review states “Loop-specific inconsistency approach was used to assess the disagreement between direct and indirect evidence in the loop, and the consistency results were considered not significant when 95% CIs of inconsistency factors included zero or RoR included one. RoR is defined as the difference that OR value of direct evidence minus OR value of indirect evidence.”

e

We did not downgrade indirectness because 50 % drop in eGFR and doubling in serum creatinine are validated surrogates for ESKD.

f

The confidence interval crosses the line of no effect, and suggests that the difference could be importantly less, or importantly more.

g

We downgraded imprecision one level because of low number of events.

h

2 (CASE-J and IDNT) is the total number of trials informing direct comparisons.

i

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the upper and lower end of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be important harm and benefit.

j

None of the two studies provides direct comparison for this outcome of interest. We used the network OR is based on indirect comparison.

Table 63Evidence profile 5x: Angiotensin II receptor blocker (ARB) compared to beta-blocker (BB) for non-dialysis chronic kidney disease stages 3–5

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsARBBBRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Source
Zhang 2020(59)
Kidney events (defined as a composite of any of the following: doubling of serum creatinine level, 50% decline in GFR, or ESKD) (follow up >6 months)
1arandomized trialsseriousbnot seriouscnot seriousdseriousenone

OR 0.84

(0.48 to 1.47)

1 fewer per 1000

(from 1 fewer to 0 fewer)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Cardiovascular mortality (follow up >6 months)
1arandomized trialsnot seriousnot seriouscnot seriousvery seriousenone

OR 1.60

(0.66 to 3.91)

2 fewer per 1000

(from 4 fewer to 1 fewer)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Hyperkalaemia (follow up >6 months)
1arandomized trialsseriousbnot seriouscnot seriousseriousf,gnone8/287 (2.8%)1/283 (0.4%)

OR 2.49

(0.83 to 7.50)

5 more per 1000

(from 1 fewer to 22 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Cough (follow up >6 months)
1arandomized trialsseriousbnot seriouscnot seriousvery seriousenone

OR 0.37

(0.06 to 2.18)

0 fewer per 1000

(from 2 fewer to 0 fewer)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Stroke – not reported
Cognitive impairment/dementia – not reported
Myocardial infarction – not reported
Heart failure – not reported
BP reduction and control – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; OR: Odds ratio

Explanations

a

This outcome is only informed by the indirect comparison of the network meta-analysis.

b

The included study was judged to be at high risk of bias in the domains of blinding of the participants and personnel.

c

The review states “Loop-specific inconsistency approach was used to assess the disagreement between direct and indirect evidence in the loop, and the consistency results were considered not significant when 95% CIs of inconsistency factors included zero or RoR included one. RoR is defined as the difference that OR value of direct evidence minus OR value of indirect evidence.”

d

We did not downgrade indirectness because 50 % drop in eGFR and doubling in serum creatinine are validated surrogates for ESKD.

e

The confidence interval crosses the line of no effect, and suggests that the difference could be importantly less, or importantly more.

f

The baseline risk was extracted from COPE 2013(69) trial.

g

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the upper end of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be an important harm.

Table 64Evidence profile 5y: Beta-blocker (BB) compared to angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) for individuals with hypertension and non-dialysis chronic kidney disease 3-5

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsBBARBRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Source
COPE 2013(69)
Coprimary end points: composite of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality (sudden death, fatal or non-fatal stroke, fatal or non-fatal myocardial infarction, hospitalization due to unstable angina, new onset of heart failure (New York Heart Association class II–IV), new onset or worsening of peripheral arterial disease and renal events defined as serum creatinine level doubled to over 2mgdl1, serum creatinine X4.0mg dl1, or renal dialysis), and achievement of target BP (o140/90mmHg). (follow up of at least 3 years)
1arandomized trialsseriousbnot seriousnot seriousvery seriouscnone13/283 (4.6%)15/287 (5.2%)

HR 0.90

(0.43 to 1.89)

5 fewer per 1000

(from 29 fewer to 44 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Hard composite cardiovascular events (cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction and non-fatal stroke excluding transient ischemic attack) (follow up of at least 3 years)
1arandomized trialsseriousbnot seriousnot seriousvery seriouscnone8/283 (2.8%)9/287 (3.1%)

HR 0.92

(0.36 to 2.40)

2 fewer per 1000

(from 20 fewer to 42 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Fatal and non-fatal stroke
1arandomized trialsseriousbnot seriousnot seriousvery seriouscnone8/283 (2.8%)7/287 (2.4%)

HR 1.19

(0.43 to 3.29)

5 more per 1000

(from 14 fewer to 54 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

All-cause mortality
1arandomized trialsseriousbnot seriousnot seriousvery seriouscnone8/283 (2.8%)7/287 (2.4%)

HR 1.23

(0.45 to 3.39)

6 more per 1000

(from 13 fewer to 56 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

CI: Confidence interval; HR: Hazard Ratio

Explanations

a

When the outcome is informed by 1 study in the network meta-analysis, we decided to use the data of the direct comparison of this study (COPE 2013(69)).

b

The study was judged to be at high risk of bias in the domain of blinding of participants and personnel.

c

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the upper and lower end of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be important harm and benefit.

Table 65Evidence profile 5z: Calcium channel blocker (CCB) compared to non-calcium channel blocker for individuals with hypertension and established cardiovascular disease (defined through patient history or investigations)

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsCCBnon-CCBRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Source
Jeffers 2017(70)
All-cause mortality (follow up >6 months)
5randomized trialsvery seriousanot seriousnot seriousseriousb,cnone2403/21 668 (11.1%)3127/25 207 (12.4%)

RR 0.95

(0.90 to 1.01)

6 fewer per 1000

(from 12 fewer to 1 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

CRITICAL
Cardiovascular mortality (follow up >6 months)
5randomized trialsvery seriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriouscnone1194/21 668 (5.5%)1519/27 207 (5.6%)

RR 0.97

(0.89 to 1.06)

2 fewer per 1000

(from 6 fewer to 3 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

CRITICAL
Major cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, stroke, cardiovascular mortality) (follow up >6 months)
4randomized trialsvery seriousdnot seriousnot seriousseriousc,enone2173/10 461 (20.8%)2805/13 898 (20.2%)

RR 1.04

(0.98 to 1.10)

8 more per 1000

(from 4 fewer to 20 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

CRITICAL
Myocardial infarction (follow up >6 months)
4randomized trialsvery seriousdnot seriousnot seriousnot seriouscnone1229/21 533 (5.7%)1427/25 019 (5.7%)

RR 1.05

(0.97 to 1.15)

3 more per 1000

(from 2 fewer to 9 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

IMPORTANT
Stroke (follow up >6 months)
4randomized trialsvery seriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriouscnone642/21 533 (3.0%)911/25 019 (3.6%)

RR 0.89

(0.79 to 1.00)

4 fewer per 1000

(from 8 fewer to 0 fewer)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

IMPORTANT
Congestive heart failure (follow up >6 months)
2randomized trialsseriousfseriousgnot seriousnot seriouscnone898/9438 (9.5%)1008/12 888 (7.8%)

RR 1.22

(1.09 to 1.35)

17 more per 1000

(from 7 more to 27 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

IMPORTANT
Cognitive impairment/dementia – not reported
End-stage kidney disease – not reported
Adverse events – not reported
Systolic BP
4randomized trialsvery serioushnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone

MD 0.32 mmHg higher

(0.13 lower to 0.76 higher)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Diastolic BP
4randomized trialsvery serioushnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone

MD 0.12 mmHg lower

(0.38 lower to 0.13 higher)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio; MD: Mean difference

Explanations

a

Two of the five trials were open labeled; three had missing data. The review was of low quality, did not perform a risk of bias assessment. Post hoc analysis of data.

b

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the lower end of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be an important benefit.

c

The patients in the amlodipine arm of the ALLHAT trial were double counted by the review when calculating the effect estimate. The 95% CI would have been wider if the review had not counted ALLHAT amlodipine arm twice.

d

Two of the four trials were open labeled; had missing data. The review was of low quality, did not perform a risk of bias assessment. Post hoc analysis of data.

e

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the upper end of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be an important harm.

f

The dominant trial had missing data. The review was of low quality, did not perform a risk of bias assessment. Post hoc analysis of data.

g

The point estimates vary importantly with regards to direction and magnitude of effect, statistical test for heterogeneity was not reported.

h

The review did not provide risk of bias assessment however some of the included studies were high/unclear risk of bias in the domain of blinding and incomplete outcome data.

Table 66Evidence profile 5aa: Calcium channel blocker (CCB) compared to non-calcium channel blocker for individuals with hypertension and previous stroke

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsCCBnon-CCBRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Source
Jeffers 2017(70)
All-cause death (follow up >6 months)
3randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousseriousb,cnone505/3377 (15.0%)630/3826 (16.5%)

RR 0.93

(0.82 to 1.05)

12 fewer per 1000

(from 30 fewer to 8 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Cardiovascular death (follow up >6 months)
2randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousseriousc,dnone212/2682 (7.9%)270/3116 (8.7%)

RR 0.91

(0.74 to 1.11)

8 fewer per 1000

(from 23 fewer to 10 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Major cardiovascular events (follow up >6 months)
3randomized trialsseriouseseriousfnot seriousseriousc,dnone670/3377 (19.8%)773/3826 (20.2%)

RR 1.00

(0.90 to 1.11)

0 fewer per 1000

(from 20 fewer to 22 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Myocardial infarction (follow up >6 months)
2randomized trialsseriousenot seriousnot seriousseriousc,dnone164/2682 (6.1%)208/3116 (6.7%)

RR 0.92

(0.73 to 1.15)

5 fewer per 1000

(from 18 fewer to 10 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Stroke (follow up >6 months)
4randomized trialsseriousgnot seriousnot seriousseriousb,cnone441/4878 (9.0%)519/5339 (9.7%)

RR 0.94

(0.82 to 1.07)

6 fewer per 1000

(from 17 fewer to 7 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Congestive heart failure (follow up >6 months)
2randomized trialsseriousenot seriousnot seriousseriousc,hnone188/2682 (7.0%)191/3116 (6.1%)

RR 1.18

(0.94 to 1.49)

11 more per 1000

(from 4 fewer to 30 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Cognitive impairment/dementia – not reported
End-stage kidney disease – not reported
Adverse effects – not reported
Systolic BP (follow up >6 months)
3randomized trialsseriousgnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone33773826

MD 0.95 mmHg lower

(2.03 lower to 0.13 higher)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Diastolic BP (follow up more than 6 months)
3randomized trialsseriousgnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone33773826-

MD 1.1 mmHg lower

(1.7 lower to 0.51 lower)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio; MD: Mean difference

Explanations

a

The review does not provide weight of the included studies and does not perform risk of bias assessment. However ASCOT 2005 was judged by another review (Wiysonge 2017(62)) to be at unclear risk of bias in the domain of incomplete outcome data..

b

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the lower end of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be an important benefit.

c

The patients in the amlodipine arm of the ALLHAT trial were double counted by the review when calculating the effect estimate. The 95% CI would have been wider if the review had not counted ALLHAT amlodipine arm twice.

d

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the upper and lower end of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be important harm and benefit.

e

The review does not provide weight of the included studies and does not perform risk of bias assessment. However ASCOT 2005 was judged by another review (Wiysonge 2017(62)) to be at unclear risk of bias in the domain of incomplete outcome data. In addition, 2 of the included studies are at high or unclear risk of bias in the domain of blinding.

f

One of the point estimates vary importantly with regards to direction and magnitude of effect, statistical test for heterogeneity was not reported. The weight of the included studies was not reported.

g

The review does not provide weight of the included studies and does not perform risk of bias assessment. However ASCOT 2005 was judged by another review (Wiysonge 2017(62)) to be at unclear risk of bias in the domain of incomplete outcome data. In addition, 3 of the included studies are at high or unclear risk of bias in the domain of blinding.

h

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the upper end of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be an important harm.

PICO question 6: In adults with hypertension requiring pharmacological treatment, which drugs (monotherapy using BB, CCB, diuretics, ACE or ARB vs combination therapy using BB, CCB, diuretics, ACE or ARB) should be used as first-line agents?

Systematic review for desirable and undesirable effects

Evidence was considered in respect of the following components (Table 67) to determine which drugs (monotherapy using BB, CCB, diuretics, ACE or ARB vs combination therapy using BB, CCB, diuretics, ACE or ARB) should be used as first-line agents in adults with hypertension requiring pharmacological treatment (Table 68Table 71).

Table 67Components for PICO question 6

PopulationInterventionComparisonOutcomeSubgroup
Adult men and women >18 years old with primary HTN requiring pharmacological treatment Monotherapy of BB, CCB, diuretics, ACEi, or ARBCombinations of BB, CCB, diuretics, ACEi, or ARB
-

death (all-cause mortality)

-

cardiovascular death (death from mi, sudden cardiac death or stroke)

-

stroke

-

myocardial infarction

-

end-stage renal disease

-

cognitive impairment/dementia

-

heart failure events

-

adverse effects

-

BP reduction and control (if data on CVD events are absent)

Based on different effect modifiers such as:
-

estimated cardiovascular risk

-

pre-existing CAD

-

stroke

-

diabetes

-

age

-

sex

-

chronic kidney disease

-

race/ethnicity

-

level of baseline BP

Table 68Evidence profile 6a: Combination therapy compared to monotherapy for individuals with hypertension

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsCombination therapyMonotherapyRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Source
Garjon 2020(71); NICE evidence review(72)
Total mortality (follow up of at least 1 year)
3randomized trialsseriousanot seriousseriousbvery seriouscnone1/233 (0.4%)1/335 (0.3%)

RR 1.35

(0.08 to 21.72)

1 more per 1000

(from 3 fewer to 62 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Serious adverse events (follow up of at least 1 year)de
3randomized trialsseriousanot seriousseriousbvery seriousfnone28/233 (12.0%)59/335 (17.6%)

RR 0.77

(0.31 to 1.92)

41 fewer per 1000

(from 122 fewer to 162 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Cardiovascular events (follow up of at least 1 year)g
3randomized trialsseriousanot seriousseriousbvery seriouscnone2/233 (0.9%)3/335 (0.9%)

RR 0.98

(0.22 to 4.41)

0 fewer per 1000

(from 7 fewer to 31 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Cardiovascular mortality (follow up of at least 1 year)
3randomized trialsseriousanot seriousseriousbvery serioushnone0/233 (0.0%)0/335 (0.0%)NE

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Withdrawal due to adverse events (follow up of at least 1 year)ij
3randomized trialsseriousanot seriousseriousbvery seriousfnone24/233 (10.3%)43/335 (12.8%)

RR 0.85

(0.53 to 1.35)

19 fewer per 1000

(from 60 fewer to 45 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Systolic BP change from baseline at end of 1 yearkl
3randomized trialsseriousanot seriousseriousbseriousmnone224324

MD 2.06 mmHg lower

(5.39 lower to 1.27 higher)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Diastolic BP change from baseline at end of 1 yearno
2randomized trialsseriousanot seriousseriousbnot seriousnone169274

MD 0.12 mmHg lower

(1.21 lower to 0.96 higher)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Change in creatinine clearance at 12 months
1randomized trialsseriouspnot seriousseriousqnot seriousnone237244

MD 0.7 ml/min higher

(1.19 lower to 2.59 higher)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Change in serum creatinine at 12 months
1randomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousseriousqnot seriousnone232225

MD 2.3 μmol/L higher

(0.7 higher to 3.9 higher)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Dizziness (hypotension) (follow up of at least 1 year)
1randomized trialsseriouspnot seriousseriousrvery seriousfnone3/244 (1.2%)5/237 (2.1%)

RR 0.58

(0.14 to 2.41)

9 fewer per 1000

(from 18 fewer to 30 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Stroke – not reported
Cognitive impairment/dementia – not reported
Myocardial infarction – not reported
End-stage kidney disease – not reported
Heart failure – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio; MD: Mean difference

Explanations

a

The review made the judgment of high risk of bias and downgraded risk of bias one level because all data came from a subgroup of participants not predefined in the original study. PREMIER study which has significant weight of the pooled effect estimates (between 23 and 50% of the weight) was judged at high risk of bias in the domain of incomplete outcome data.

b

The two trials that have most of the weight of the pooled estimate (>70%) were in patients with diabetes. We downgraded indirectness one level as this population is not representative of the general population with HTN.

c

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the upper end of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be an important harm.

d

No statistically significant difference in the RR of adverse events between men and women. The RR is 1.25 with CI of [0.52,3] in women. The RR is 0.75 with CI of [0.45,1.24] in men.

e

Subgroup analysis showed that RR for adverse events in patients with diabetes is 0.62 with CI of [0.24, 1.64]. The RR of adverse events in patients without diabetes is 3.14 with CI of [0.34, 29.4].

f

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the lower and upper ends of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be important benefit and harm.

g

Subgroup analysis showed that the RR for cardiovascular events in patients with diabetes is 0.62 with CI [0.1,3.95]. The RR for cardiovascular events in patients without diabetes is 3.14 with CI [0.13, 75.69].

h

There was no events rate and it did not meet the optimal information size.

i

No statistically significant difference in the RR of withdrawal due to adverse events between men and women. The RR is 1.27 in women with CI of [0.43,3.73]. The RR is 0.83 in men with CI of [0.42,1.66].

j

Subgroup analysis showed RR for the outcome of withdrawal due to adverse events in patients with diabetes of 0.81 with CI [0.49,1.35] and RR for the outcome of withdrawal due to adverse events in patients without diabetes of 1.05 with CI [0.32, 3.45].

k

Subgroup analysis based on gender showed mean difference in SBP from baseline at end of 1 year was 1.74 with CI [−2.1, 5.58] in women and mean difference in SBP from baseline at end of 1 year was −1.03 with CI of [−3.25, 1.19] in men.

l

Subgroup analysis showed that the mean difference in systolic BP in patients with diabetes is −2.54 with CI of [−8.27,3.19] and the mean difference in systolic BP in patients without diabetes is −2.33 with CI of [−7.28,2.62].

m

The confidence interval crossed the lower limit of 5 mmHg. Judgment to be reviewed with the panel.

n

Subgroup analysis base on gender showed mean difference in DBP from baseline at end of 1 year was 0.47 with CI [−1.96, 2.9] in women and mean difference in DBP from baseline at end of 1 year was −0.77 with CI [−2.08, 0.54] in men.

o

Subgroup analysis showed that the mean difference in diastolic BP in patients with diabetes is −0.39 with CI of [−1.56,0.78] and the mean difference in diastolic BP in patients without diabetes is 1.45 with CI of [−1.4,4.3].

p

The included PREMIER study was judged to be at high risk of bias in the domain of incomplete outcome data.

q

Serum creatinine and creatinine clearance are surrogate markers for ESKD. We downgraded one level for indirectness.

r

The included trial was in patients with diabetes. We downgraded indirectness one level as this population is not representative of the general population with HTN.

Table 69Evidence profile 6b: Dual agents (ACEi/ARB and CCB) compared to single agent (ACEi/ARB only) for patients with hypertension and chronic kidney disease

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsdual agents (ACEi/ARB and CCB)single agent (ACEi/ARB only)Relative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Source
Huang 2016(73)
End-stage kidney disease (follow up of 21 to 48 months)
3randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousvery seriousbnone15/88 (17.0%)25/101 (24.8%)

RR 0.84

(0.52 to 1.33)

40 fewer per 1000

(from 119 fewer to 82 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

IMPORTANT
Cardiovascular events (follow up of 24 to 66 months)c
3randomized trialsseriousdnot seriousnot seriousvery seriousbnone5/194 (2.6%)10/208 (4.8%)

RR 0.58

(0.21 to 1.63)

20 fewer per 1000

(from 38 fewer to 30 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

IMPORTANT
Changes in SBP (follow up of 3 to 66 months)c
6randomized trialsseriousenot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone283290

MD 4.46 mmHg lower

(6.95 lower to 1.97 lower)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

IMPORTANT
Changes in DBP (follow up of 3 to 66 months)c
6randomized trialsseriouseseriousfnot seriousnot seriousnone283290

MD 1.28 mmHg lower

(3.18 lower to 0.62 higher)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

IMPORTANT
Adverse events (follow up of 12 to 66 months)c
4randomized trialsseriousgnot seriousnot seriousvery seriousbnone39/210 (18.6%)44/222 (19.8%)

RR 1.05

(0.72 to 1.53)

10 more per 1000

(from 55 fewer to 105 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

IMPORTANT
Glomerular filtration rate (follow up of 3 to 48 months)c
8randomized trialsserioushseriousiseriousjnot seriousnone172188

MD 0.32 ml/min lower

(1.53 lower to 0.89 higher)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

All-cause mortality – not reported
Cardiovascular mortality – not reported
Stroke – not reported
Cognitive impairment/dementia – not reported
Myocardial infarction – not reported
Heart failure – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio; MD: Mean difference

Explanations

a

The two trials that have most of the weight of the pooled estimate (>90% of the weight) were judged to be at high risk of bias in the domains of allocation concealment, blinding of participants and personnel, blinding of outcome assessment, incomplete outcome data and selective reporting.

b

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the lower and upper ends of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be important benefit and harm.

c

The review states: “Three trials recruited only diabetes patients. Our findings for cardiovascular events and all secondary outcomes except SBP were consistent with the overall results.”

d

The two trials that have most of the weight of the pooled estimate (>85% of the weight) were judged to be at high risk of bias in the domains of allocation concealment, blinding of participants and personnel, blinding of outcome assessment, incomplete outcome data and selective reporting.

e

The three trials that have most of the weight of the pooled estimate (>80% of the weight) were judged to be at high risk of bias in the domains of allocation concealment, blinding of participants and personnel, blinding of outcome assessment and selective reporting.

f

The point estimates vary importantly with regards to direction and magnitude of effect, and some of the CIs do not overlap. There is high statistical heterogeneity, as reflected by the I-squared (81%).

g

The three trials that have most of the weight of the pooled estimate (>80% of the weight) were judged to be at high risk of bias in the domains of allocation concealment, blinding of participants and personnel, blinding of outcome assessment, incomplete outcome data and selective reporting.

h

The four trials that have most of the weight of the pooled estimate (>70% of the weight) were judged to be at high risk of bias in the domains of allocation concealment, blinding of participants and personnel, blinding of outcome assessment, incomplete outcome data and selective reporting.

i

The point estimates vary importantly with regards to direction and magnitude of effect, and some of the CIs do not overlap. There is high statistical heterogeneity, as reflected by the I-squared (61%).

j

The outcome of interest is end-stage kidney disease. The change in GFR is surrogate marker. We downgraded indirectness one level.

Table 70Evidence profile 6c: Calcium channel blocker (CCB) + angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) at standard-dose compared to high-dose calcium channel blocker (CCB) for individuals with hypertension

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsCCB + ARB at standard-doseHigh-dose CCBRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Source
He 2017(74)
Total adverse events (duration of 6 to 48 weeks)ab
5randomized trialsseriouscnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousdnone582/1122 (51.9%)e

RR 0.84

(0.74 to 0.95)

83 fewer per 1000

(from 135 fewer to 26 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Discontinuation due to adverse events (duration of 6 to 48 weeks)ab
4randomized trialsseriouscnot seriousnot seriousvery seriousfnone114/1122 (10.2%)e

RR 0.32

(0.15 to 0.60)

69 fewer per 1000

(from 86 fewer to 41 fewer)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Coughab
2randomized trialsseriouscnot seriousnot seriousvery seriousgnone

RR 1.45

(0.24 to 8.63)

1 fewer per 1000

(from 9 fewer to 0 fewer)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Dizzinessab
4randomized trialsseriouscnot seriousnot seriousvery seriousgnone5/255 (2.0%)e

RR 0.99

(0.33 to 2.99)

0 fewer per 1000

(from 13 fewer to 39 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Hyperkalaemiaab
2randomized trialsseriouscnot seriousnot seriousvery seriousgnone

RR 2.14

(0.71 to 6.45)

2 fewer per 1000

(from 6 fewer to 1 fewer)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Dyspneaab
3randomized trialsseriouscnot seriousnot seriousvery seriousgnone

RR 2.99

(0.48 to 18.79)

3 fewer per 1000

(from 19 fewer to 0 fewer)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Systolic BP (duration of 6 to 48 weeks)h
12randomized trialsseriouscnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone

MD 2.52 mmHg lower

(3.76 lower to 1.28 lower)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Diastolic BP (duration of 6 to 48 weeks)h
12randomized trialsseriouscseriousinot seriousnot seriousnone

MD 2.07 mmHg lower

(3.73 lower to 0.42 lower)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

BP control rate (duration of 6 to 48 weeks)j
7randomized trialsseriouscnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone

RR 1.17

(1.08 to 1.26)

1 fewer per 1000

(from 1 fewer to 1 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

All-cause mortality – not reported
Cardiovascular mortality – not reported
Stroke – not reported
Cognitive impairment/dementia – not reported
Myocardial infarction – not reported
End-stage kidney disease – not reported
Heart failure – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio; MD: Mean difference

Explanations

a

The total number of events and the total number of patients was not reported in the review.

b

The review reports that the duration of trials was between 6-8 weeks but one study was 48 weeks.

c

All included studies were judged at high risk of bias.

d

Decision to be checked with the panel if the CI crosses the MID.

e

SR doesn’t provide baseline risk so it was abstracted from the largest primary studies reported in the systematic review.

f

The extreme of CI will lead to different decisions.

g

The confidence interval crosses the line of no effect, and suggests that the difference could be importantly less, or importantly more.

h

Total number of participants is 2823.

i

The point estimates vary importantly with regards to direction and magnitude of effect, and some of the CIs do not overlap. There is high statistical heterogeneity, as reflected by the I-squared (89.8%).

j

Total number of participants is 2527.

Table 71Evidence profile 6d: Dual renin-angiotensin-aldosterone inhibitor (RAASi) compared to RAASi monotherapy for non-dialysis chronic kidney disease stages 3–5

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsDual RAASi inhibitorRAASi monotherapyRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Source
post hoc Ontarget(75) (Tobe 2011)
Chronic dialysis or doubling of creatinine (followed until a primary event occurred or until the end of the study (median, 56 months))
1arandomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousseriousbnone64/1871 (3.4%)92/3752 (2.5%)

HR 1.40

(1.02 to 1.93)

10 more per 1000

(from 0 fewer to 22 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Chronic dialysis (followed until a primary event occurred or until the end of the study (median, 56 months))
1arandomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousseriousbnone28/1871 (1.5%)44/3752 (1.2%)

HR 1.28

(0.80 to 2.06)

3 more per 1000

(from 2 fewer to 12 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Doubling of creatinine (followed until a primary event occurred or until the end of the study (median, 56 months))
1arandomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousseriousbnone47/1871 (2.5%)63/3752 (1.7%)

HR 1.50

(1.03 to 2.19)

8 more per 1000

(from 0 fewer to 20 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Primary cardiovascular outcome (followed until a primary event occurred or until the end of the study (median, 56 months))
1arandomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousseriouscnone423/1871 (22.6%)858/3752 (22.9%)

HR 0.99

(0.88 to 1.12)

2 fewer per 1000

(from 24 fewer to 24 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Cardiovascular death (followed until a primary event occurred or until the end of the study (median, 56 months))
1arandomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousseriouscnone216/1871 (11.5%)431/3752 (11.5%)

HR 1.01

(0.86 to 1.19)

1 more per 1000

(from 15 fewer to 20 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

All-cause death (followed until a primary event occurred or until the end of the study (median, 56 months))
1arandomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousseriouscnone345/1871 (18.4%)662/3752 (17.6%)

HR 1.05

(0.93 to 1.20)

8 more per 1000

(from 11 fewer to 31 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Acute dialysis (followed until a primary event occurred or until the end of the study (median, 56 months))
1arandomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousseriousbnone17/1871 (0.9%)19/3752 (0.5%)

HR 1.81

(0.94 to 3.49)

4 more per 1000

(from 0 fewer to 12 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Hyperkalaemia >5.5 mmol/L (followed until a primary event occurred or until the end of the study (median, 56 months))
1arandomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone169/1871 (9.0%)1211/3752 (32.3%)

HR 1.64

(1.34 to 2.01)

150 more per 1000

(from 84 more to 220 more)

⨁⨁⨁⨁

HIGH

Hyperkalaemia >6.5 mmol/L (followed until a primary event occurred or until the end of the study (median, 56 months))
1arandomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousseriousbnone10/1871 (0.5%)7/3752 (0.2%)

HR 2.87

(1.09 to 7.53)

3 more per 1000

(from 0 fewer to 12 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Syncope
1arandomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousseriousd,enone5/1871 (0.3%)4/3752 (0.1%)

HR 2.51

(0.67 to 9.32)

2 more per 1000

(from 0 fewer to 9 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Hypotension
1arandomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone83/1871 (4.4%)99/3752 (2.6%)

HR 1.68

(1.26 to 2.24)

18 more per 1000

(from 7 more to 32 more)

⨁⨁⨁⨁

HIGH

Cough
1arandomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone83/1871 (4.4%)90/3752 (2.4%)

HR 1.85

(1.38 to 2.48)

20 more per 1000

(from 9 more to 34 more)

⨁⨁⨁⨁

HIGH

Diarrhoea
1arandomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousvery seriousenone16/1871 (0.9%)6/3752 (0.2%)

HR 5.35

(2.10 to 13.60)

7 more per 1000

(from 2 more to 20 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Total discontinuations
1arandomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone626/1871 (33.5%)1043/3752 (27.8%)

HR 1.20

(1.11 to 1.31)

46 more per 1000

(from 25 more to 69 more)

⨁⨁⨁⨁

HIGH

Stroke – not reported
Cognitive impairment/dementia – not reported
Myocardial infarction – not reported
Heart failure – not reported
BP reduction and control – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; HR: Hazard Ratio

Explanations

a

When the number of studies providing direct comparison in the network meta-analysis (Zhang 2020) is 1, we use the data of the study rather than NMA.

b

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the upper end of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be an important harm.

c

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the upper and lower end of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be important harm and harm.

d

The confidence interval crosses the line of no effect, and suggests that the difference could be importantly less, or importantly more.

e

There is a low events rate.

PICO question 7: In adults with hypertension requiring pharmacological treatment, which combination therapy of two or more drugs (BB, CCB, diuretics, ACE, or ARB) vs different combination therapy of two or more drugs (BB, CCB, diuretics, ACE, or ARB) should be used as first-line agents?

Systematic review for desirable and undesirable effects

Evidence was considered in respect of the following components (Table 72) to determine which combination therapy of two or more drugs (BB, CCB, diuretics, ACE, or ARB) vs different combination therapy of two or more drugs (BB, CCB, diuretics, ACE, or ARB) should be used as first-line agents in adults with hypertension requiring pharmacological treatment (Table 73Table 77).

Table 72Components for PICO question 7

PopulationInterventionComparisonOutcomeSubgroup
Adult men and women >18 years old with primary HTN requiring pharmacological treatment Combination therapy of two or more drugs (BB, CCB, diuretics, ACEi, or ARB)Different combinations of two or more drugs (BB, CCB, diuretics, ACEi, or ARB)Death (all-cause mortality)
-

CVD death (death from MI, sudden cardiac death or stroke)

-

stroke

-

myocardial infarction

-

end-stage renal disease

-

cognitive impairment/dementia

-

heart failure events

-

adverse effects

-

BP reduction and control (if data on CVD events are absent)

Based on different effect modifiers such as:
-

estimated cardiovascular risk

-

pre-existing CAD

-

stroke

-

diabetes

-

age

-

sex

-

chronic kidney disease

-

race/ethnicity

-

level of baseline BP

Table 73Evidence profile 7a: Renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitor (RAASi) + calcium channel blocker (CCB) compared to RAASi + diuretic for individuals with hypertension

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsRAASi + CCBRAASi + diureticRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Source
Lu 2017(76)
All-cause mortality (mean follow-up of 2.9 years)
2randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousseriousbnone300/8312 (3.6%)338/8335 (4.1%)

RR 0.89

(0.76 to 1.04)

4 fewer per 1000

(from 10 fewer to 2 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

CRITICAL
Cardiovascular events (mean follow-up of 2.9 years)
2randomized trialsseriouscnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone668/8312 (8.0%)814/8335 (9.8%)

RR 0.82

(0.75 to 0.91)

18 fewer per 1000

(from 24 fewer to 9 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

IMPORTANT
Stroke (mean follow-up of 2.9 years)
2randomized trialsseriousdnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone175/8312 (2.1%)199/8335 (2.4%)

RR 0.88

(0.72 to 1.08)

3 fewer per 1000

(from 7 fewer to 2 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

CRITICAL
Withdrawal due to adverse events (mean follow-up of 2.9 years)
15randomized trialsseriousenot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone917/10 433 (8.8%)1062/10 489 (10.1%)

RR 0.87

(0.80 to 0.94)

13 fewer per 1000

(from 20 fewer to 6 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

IMPORTANT
Systolic BP (mean follow-up of 2.9 years)
26randomized trialsseriousfseriousgnot seriousnot seriousnone10 92211 001

MD 0.45 mmhg lower

(0.87 lower to 0.03 lower)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

IMPORTANT
Diastolic BP (mean follow–up of 2.9 years)
26randomized trialsserioushseriousinot seriousnot seriousnone10 92211 001

MD 0.43 mmHg lower

(0.7 lower to 0.16 lower)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

IMPORTANT
Cardiovascular mortality – not reported
Cognitive impairment/dementia – not reported
Myocardial infarction – not reported
End-stage kidney disease – not reported
Heart failure – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio; MD: Mean difference

Explanations

a

The trial that has most of the weight of the pooled estimate (77.5%) was judged at unclear risk of bias in the domain of random sequence generation.

b

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the lower end of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be an important benefit.

c

We downgraded one level because the ACCOMPLISH 2008 trial that has most of the weight of the pooled estimate (83.4%) was judged at unclear risk of bias in the domain of random sequence generation. In addition, the COLM 2014 trial was judged at high risk of Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias), Open-label, however with blinded end point. The weight of the COLM 2014 of the pooled effect estimate is 16.6%.

d

We downgraded one level because the ACCOMPLISH 2008 trial that has most of the weight of the pooled estimate (66.8%) was judged at unclear risk of bias in the domain of random sequence generation. In addition, the COLM 2014 trial was judged at high risk of Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias), Open-label, however with blinded end point. The weight of the COLM 2014 of the pooled effect estimates is 33.2%.

e

The trial that has most of the weight of the pooled estimate (77.6%) was judged at unclear risk of bias in the domain of random sequence generation. In addition, the COLM 2014 trial was judged at high risk of Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias), Open-label, however with blinded end point. The weight of the COLM 2014 of the pooled effect estimates is 12.3%.

f

We downgraded one level because the ACCOMPLISH 2008 trial that has most of the weight of the pooled estimate (40.5%) was judged at unclear risk of bias in the domain of random sequence generation. In addition, the COLM 2014 trial was judged at high risk of Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias), Open-label, however with blinded end point. The weight of the COLM 2014 of the pooled effect estimates is 21%.

g

The point estimates vary importantly with regards to direction and magnitude of effect, and some of the CIs do not overlap. There is high statistical heterogeneity, as reflected by the I-squared (74%).

h

We downgraded one level because the ACCOMPLISH 2008 trial that has most of the weight of the pooled estimate (47.5%) was judged at unclear risk of bias in the domain of random sequence generation. In addition, the COLM 2014 trial was judged at high risk of Blinding of participants and personnel (performance bias), Open-label, however with blinded end point. The weight of the COLM 2014 of the pooled effect estimates is 16.6%.

i

The point estimates vary importantly with regards to direction and magnitude of effect, and some of the CIs do not overlap. There is high statistical heterogeneity, as reflected by the I-squared (76%).

Table 74Evidence profile 7b: Renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitor (RAASi) + calcium channel blocker (CCB) compared to CCB + diuretic for individuals with hypertension

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsRAASi + CCBCCB + diureticRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Source
Lu 2017(76)
All-cause mortality (mean follow-up of 2.9 years)
2randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousseriousbnone105/7876 (1.3%)120/7870 (1.5%)

RR 0.87

(0.67 to 1.13)

2 fewer per 1000

(from 5 fewer to 2 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

CRITICAL
Stroke (mean follow-up of 2.9 years)
2randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousseriouscnone158/7876 (2.0%)129/7870 (1.6%)

RR 1.22

(0.97 to 1.54)

4 more per 1000

(from 0 fewer to 9 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

IMPORTANT
Withdrawal due to adverse events (mean follow-up of 2.9 years)
4randomized trialsseriousdnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone49/2468 (2.0%)75/2414 (3.1%)

RR 0.63

(0.45 to 0.90)

11 fewer per 1000

(from 17 fewer to 3 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

IMPORTANT
Systolic BP (mean follow-up of 2.9 years)
6randomized trialsseriousaseriousenot seriousnot seriousnone93199207

MD 0.12 mmHg lower

(0.45 lower to 0.21 higher)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

IMPORTANT
Diastolic BP (mean follow-up of 2.9 years)
6randomized trialsseriousaseriousfnot seriousnot seriousnone93199207

MD 0.03 mmHg lower

(0.27 lower to 0.22 higher)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

IMPORTANT
Cardiovascular mortality – not reported
-
Cognitive impairment/dementia – not reported
-
Heart failure – not reported
-
Myocardial infarction – not reported
-
End-stage kidney disease – not reported
-

CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio; MD: Mean difference

Explanations

a

The trial that has most of the weight of the pooled estimate (>75%) was judged at unclear risk of bias in the domains of allocation concealment and incomplete outcome data.

b

The confidence interval crosses the line of no effect, and suggests the possibility of an important benefit and a small harm. The extremes of the confidence interval will lead to different decisions.

c

The confidence interval crosses the line of no effect, and suggests the possibility of a small benefit and an important harm. The extremes of the confidence interval will lead to different decisions.

d

The trial that has a significant weight of the pooled estimate (26.4%) was judged at unclear risk of bias in the domains of random sequence generation, allocation concealment, and blinding of outcome assessment. In addition the COPE 2011 trial which has the weight of 14.6% was judged at high risk of bias in the domain of blinding of participants and personnel.

e

The point estimates vary importantly with regards to direction and magnitude of effect, and some of the CIs do not overlap. There is high statistical heterogeneity, as reflected by the I-squared (81%).

f

The point estimates vary importantly with regards to direction and magnitude of effect, and some of the CIs do not overlap. There is high statistical heterogeneity, as reflected by the I-squared (90%).

Table 75Evidence profile 7c: Renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitor (RAASi) + calcium channel blocker (CCB) compared to CCB + beta-blocker (BB) for individuals with hypertension

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsRAASi + CCBCCB + BBRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Source
Lu 2017(76)
Withdrawal due to adverse events (mean follow-up of 2.9 years)
3randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousseriousbnone33/1451 (2.3%)45/1437 (3.1%)

RR 0.74

(0.48 to 1.15)

8 fewer per 1000

(from 16 fewer to 5 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

IMPORTANT
Systolic BP (mean follow-up of 2.9 years)
5randomized trialsseriouscnot seriousnot seriousdnot seriousnone16141537-

MD 0.24 mmHg higher

(0.61 lower to 1.08 higher)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

IMPORTANT
Diastolic BP (mean follow-up of 2.9 years)
5randomized trialsseriouscnot seriousnot seriousdnot seriousnone16141537-

MD 0.06 mmHg higher

(0.48 lower to 0.6 higher)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

IMPORTANT
All-cause mortality – not reported
Cardiovascular mortality – not reported
Stroke – not reported
Cognitive impairment/dementia – not reported
Heart failure – not reported
Myocardial infarction – not reported
End-stage kidney disease – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio; MD: Mean difference

Explanations

a

The trial that has most of the weight of the pooled estimate (61.7%) was judged at high risk of bias in the domain of blinding of participants and personnel and unclear risk of bias in the domains random sequence generation, allocation concealment and selective reporting.

b

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the lower end of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be an important benefit

c

The two trials that have most of the weight of the pooled estimate (>80%) were judged at high risk of bias in the domain of blinding of participants and personnel and unclear risk of bias in the domains random sequence generation and allocation concealment.

d

Studies used different doses for CCB and some were individualized per patient which may affect the generalizability of the results on other patients.

Table 76Evidence profile 7d: Renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitor (RAASi) + calcium channel blocker (CCB) compared to beta-blocker (BB) + diuretic for individuals with hypertension

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsRAASi + CCBBB + diureticRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Source
Lu 2017(76)
Withdrawal due to adverse events (mean follow-up of 2.9 years)
3randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousseriousbnone11/348 (3.2%)15/348 (4.3%)

RR 0.74

(0.35 to 1.58)

11 fewer per 1000

(from 28 fewer to 25 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Systolic BP (mean follow-up of 2.9 years)
3randomized trialsseriousaseriouscnot seriousnot seriousdnone333324

MD 1.5 mmHg higher

(0.81 lower to 3.82 higher)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Diastolic BP (mean follow–up of 2.9 years)
3randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousdnone333324

MD 1.17 mmHg higher

(0.22 lower to 2.56 higher)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

All–cause mortality – not reported
Cardiovascular mortality – not reported
Stroke – not reported
Cognitive impairment/dementia – not reported
Heart failure – not reported
Myocardial infarction – not reported
End-stage kidney disease – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio; MD: Mean difference

Explanations

a

The trial that has most of the weight of the pooled estimate (>65%) was judged at unclear risk of bias in the domains of allocation concealment and blinding of outcome assessment.

b

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the lower and upper ends of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be an important benefit and harm.

c

The point estimates vary importantly with regards to direction and magnitude of effect, and some of the CIs do not overlap. There is high statistical heterogeneity, as reflected by the I-squared (86%).

d

The CI does not cross the MID threshold for individual patients (judgment to be checked with the panel).

Table 77Evidence profile 7e: Renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitor (RAASi) + calcium channel blocker (CCB) compared to renin angiotensin system (RAASi) inhibitor + diuretics for individuals with hypertension

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsRAASi + CCBRAASi + diureticsRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Source
Cheng 2016(77)
eGFR/creatinine clearanceab
9randomized trialsseriouscnot seriousdseriousenot seriousnone63296370

SMD 0.36 SD higher

(0.2 higher to 0.53 higher)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Serum creatinine
9randomized trialsseriousfnot seriousseriousgnot seriousnone29322942

MD 0.05 mg/dL lower

(0.07 lower to 0.03 lower)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

All-cause mortality – not reported
Cardiovascular mortality – not reported
Stroke – not reported
Cognitive impairment/dementia – not reported
Heart failure – not reported
Myocardial infarction – not reported
End-stage kidney disease – not reported
Adverse events – not reported
BP reduction – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; SMD: Standardised mean difference; MD: Mean difference

Explanations

a

Subgroup analysis based on ethnicity showed consistent evidence in both Asian and non-Asian populations. For Asian patients std mean difference was 0.4, CI (0.24, 0.56). For non-Asian population std mean difference was 0.33, CI (0.04, 0.62).

b

The authors used std mean difference because some studies used mL/min and the others used mL/min/1.73m2 as the unit of measurement.

c

The four trials that have significant weight of the pooled estimate (>45%) were judged at high risk of bias in the domains of allocation concealment and randomization.

d

Even though there is statistical inconsistency, all estimates suggest the same direction of effect and only one of the CIs does not overlap with the others.

e

We downgraded indirectness because the change in eGFR/creatinine clearance is a surrogate marker for ESKD.

f

The trials that have significant weight of the pooled estimate (29%) were judged at high risk of bias in the domains of allocation concealment and randomization.

g

We downgraded indirectness because the change in serum creatinine is a surrogate marker for ESKD.

Evidence to decision for PICO questions 4–7

Values and preferences

Shahaj, 2019(12): A range of individual and social factors including: familial (lack of support, need for separate meals), and environmental (sense of security, local amenities, healthy food availability) were identified as challenges to treatment adherence. Differences between clinicians’ and patients’ beliefs were potential sources of confusion and mistrust and were related to both cultural and individual beliefs (e.g. perceptions of symptoms, disease management, and treatment expectations).

Fragasso, 2012(6): Quality of life on antihypertensive therapy is an important issue because clinicians are asked to initiate drug therapy in mostly asymptomatic patients, who are never happy to become instead symptomatic, due to drug prescription.

Resources required

Luthy, 2008(78): Norvasc (amlodipine), which is a CCB), is one of the most commonly prescribed medications in the treatment of HTN. Even though amlodipine is now available as a generic, the cost is still significant. When taken every day as prescribed, patients without prescription benefits must pay, on average, USD 64.00 for a 30-day supply of the 10-mg dose (Drugs.com). The cost of amlodipine per pill equals about USD 2.13 (Drugstore.com, 2007). Coupled with the fact that patients with HTN commonly take many prescription drugs for other comorbidities, such as diabetes and hyperlipidemia, consideration of a patient’s economic situation while paying for many prescription drugs can be a major factor in determining patient compliance with the prescribed regimen.

Luthy, 2008(78): Thiazide: Hydrochlorothiazide (HCTZ), a thiazide diuretic, is a cost-efficient, first-line option when initiating treatment for HTN. For the commonly prescribed dose of 12.5–50 mg per day, patients can expect to pay about USD 12.00 for a 30-day supply, approximately USD 0.40 per pill.

Luthy, 2008(78): Captopril, an ACEi, is the most cost-efficient option for the adjunct treatment of HTN, costing USD 12.00 for a one-month supply of 50 mg tablets. The cost per pill equals about USD 0.22. While a captopril–HCTZ combination pill is available, the economic burden is similar to Norvasc at USD 2.00 per tablet. However, when administered separately, HCTZ and captopril are an effective and cost-efficient alternative to the popularly prescribed Norvasc.

Gu, 2015(8): Because medication costs are usually paid out-of-pocket by patients with HTN, local and national governments do not directly feel the impact of high drug costs. However, high drug costs likely have a big impact at the level of individual households and therefore indirectly on the national economy. Additionally, Chinese patients are reluctant to pay out of pocket for antihypertensive medications, and studies of Chinese patients have shown that out-of-pocket drug costs reduce medication adherence among patients with HTN and CVD.

Bramlage, 2009(79): Drug costs were highest for patients being treated and being persistent with ARB therapy (EUR 326.16), closely followed by patients persistent with CCB treatment (EUR 234.63) and patients switching between classes (up to EUR 268.07)

Chrysant, 2008(80): The primary endpoint was the cost of therapy, which declined by 33% and in this study resulted in a saving of USD 19.00 per patient/month after switching from a multiple-pill combination to a single-pill combination.

Cost effectiveness

Modelling studies were assessed for their overall quality by evaluating the structure of the model, appropriateness of the assumptions, sources of model inputs and sensitivity analyses. A formal quality assessment tool was not used. Most studies used a state transition model (Markov) model with variable cycle lengths (1 month to 1 year, variable time horizons (1 year to lifetime/95 years of age), almost all were from a payer/health system perspective. The majority did not use a systematic review to identify most appropriate model inputs; the method for choosing studies for utility inputs was seldom described. Most studies included one-way sensitivity analyses, some performed multi-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. An assumption that significantly influenced outcomes for Q 6–8 were that single-pill combinations increase compliance, resulting in lower BP.(14, 16) Costs due to adverse events were included by some,(20) not others. Although model and assumptions were extensively described in some studies,(8) inputs were not based on a systematic review, leading to the possibility of bias in choosing inputs. The generalizability of these studies is very limited due to contextual differences.

The cost effectiveness of low-cost essential antihypertensive medicines for HTN control in China was assessed in a modelling study by Gu and colleagues.(8) Based on a state transition model, cost effectiveness of treatment for stage 1 (BP 140–159/90–99 mmHg) and stage 2 (BP ≥160/100 mmHg) were calculated. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were used. Treating hypertensive adults with prior cardiovascular disease for secondary prevention was found to be cost saving in the main simulation and 100% of probabilistic simulation results. Treatment of all other patient cohorts, including sensitivity analyses, was found to be cost effective at a willingness to pay threshold of USD 50 000.

Data from 4500 US adults with HTN from the community quality index study were modelled to estimate cost and cost-effectiveness to payers of consistently providing the basic elements of BP management (visits and medications associated with recommended care)(81). They compared “usual care” with “improved care” (100% provision of recommended care processes). Some inputs were obtained from systematic review/meta-analysis of RCTs from the literature. Improved care cost USD 170 per person with mild HTN, USD 801 for moderate HTN and USD 850 for severe HTN annually.

Park and colleagues(82) conducted a systematic review of cost-effectiveness analyses of antihypertensive medicines. They included 76 studies in their review. These included 14 studies comparing medicines with no treatment, 16 studies comparing medicines with conventional treatment, 28 studies comparing medicines between medicine classes, 13 studies comparing medicines within medicine class and 11 studies comparing different combination therapies. Quality assessment was performed using the Quality of Health Economic Studies scale. Twenty-one studies scored >91, 10 studies scored <70 on a 100-point scale. 80% of reported funding was from industry, these studies provided positive evidence for the companies that sponsored them. The majority (41) of the studies were from Europe, 16 were from North America and 19 were from other countries. ARBs were the most frequently evaluated drug class (62 times either as intervention or comparator in 42 studies); the most frequently included ARB were losartan (20 studies) and irbesartan (15 studies). CCBs were the next most frequent class evaluated (32 times in 31 studies); amlodipine was the most common drug in this class (19 studies). Next in frequency were ACEi (28 studies) and beta-blockers (BBs) (25 times in 23 studies) (most common atenolol in 16 studies). Thiazide diuretics were evaluated 17 times, hydrochlorothiazide was most frequent (10 studies).

All antihypertensives were cost effective compared with no treatment (dominant USD 19 945/QALY). ARBs were more cost effective than CCBs in nine comparisons, whereas CCBs were more cost effective than ARBs in two comparisons. As previously noted, most of these were funded by industry and the results favoured the sponsor. ARBs were more cost effective than ACEis or BBs in all comparisons. Variations in study results are likely due to variations in study settings, analytic models, variations in cost and publication bias.

Using a state transition model, Tajeu and colleagues(83) study cost effectiveness of antihypertensive medications in white and black men and women in the United States. The simulation study population was modelled using demographic and clinical data from an ongoing observational study of risk factors associated with stroke (REGARDS study). Health states considered included stroke, coronary heart disease, heart failure, chronic kidney disease and end-stage kidney disease. The model included white and black adults with HTN and ≥45 years of age. Antihypertensive treatment was found to be cost effective with ICER/QALY of more than USD 10 000 for all groups.

In an economic analysis funded by Novartis of patients with chronic kidney disease treated with benazepril, the authors used data from the AIPRI study for transition probabilities in model inputs.(84) The rationale for selecting the other input sources was unclear. Benazepril was found to be dominant in the long run (7-year time horizon)

For low- and middle-income countries, Gad and colleagues conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis in the Ghanaian setting. Using a state transition model with six health states, one-year cycle length and a lifetime time horizon, they compared cost effectiveness of different classes of medications (ACEi, ARB, BB, CCB, thiazide-like diuretics, no intervention). All classes were found to be more effective than no intervention, thiazide diuretics were the most cost effective (GHS 276/DALY). CCBs were more effective and more expensive. ACEis, ARBs and BBs were less effective than thiazide diuretics. The results were maintained in sensitivity analyses.

Ekwunife and colleagues conducted a cost-utility analysis of antihypertensive medications in Nigeria.(85) They constructed a Markov model, with six health states, a cycle length of one year and a time horizon of 30 years, of patients stratified by cardiovascular risk. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was conducted and results presented as cost-effectiveness acceptability frontiers. They found thiazide diuretics to be the most cost-effective option across cardiovascular risk groups, followed by CCBs, at a willingness to pay of at least USD 2000/QALY. The results were robust and insensitive to parameter alterations.

An industry-sponsored (Solvay Pharmaceuticals) cost utility analysis(86) comparing eprosartan with enalapril and nitrendipine found eprosartan to be cost effective at a willingness to pay threshold of EUR 30 000. Another industry-funded study (Pfizer)(87) from Taiwan comparing amlodipine and valsartan in a Markov model with a five-year time horizon and one-year cycle length did not include a systematic literature review for its inputs. This study found amlodipine to be dominant; the results were robust in sensitivity analyses.

A non-industry funded study in the Polish setting comparing ACEis and ARBs(88) found ACEis to provide improved outcomes compared to ARBs; the annual gain from change in treatment from ARB to ACEi for the Polish population was 830 QALY and 1018 life-years gained.

An economic evaluation sponsored by Daiichi-Sankyo in China(14) was very well designed. Model inputs for drug efficacy and other outcomes were based on a systematic review and MA/NMA. However, the process for selecting references for utilities was not clear, leaving the possibility of bias in choosing inputs for utilities. They constructed a Markov model with five health states, analysed from a payer perspective over a 20-year time horizon. Olmesartan/amlodipine single-pill combination was dominant, compared with Olmesartan and amlodipine multiple-pill combination and Valsartan/amlodipine single-pill combination.

Similarly, a single-pill combination of indapamide and amlodipine compared with multiple-pill combination therapy(16) was found to be cost saving in a Polish setting. The authors used a Markov model with eight health states, cycle length of one month, over a lifetime time horizon. These results were consistent in sensitivity analyses.

Lung et al compared cost effectiveness of a triple-pill strategy (consisting of amlodipine, telmisartan and chlorthalidone) with usual care based on data from a trial (TRIUMPH) incorporated into a discrete-time simulation model (10-year time horizon). They extrapolated the data for the proportion of individuals reaching BP target to disability adjusted life years (DALYs) averted. Modelling inputs were from the literature – no systematic review, no rational for the references chosen. Their results indicated a cost of USD 2842.79 per DALY averted over a 10-year period. Findings were robust to variations in all key-parameters.

Equity

Meiqari, 2019(11): Although beta-blockers (BBs), loop diuretics, and statins might be available in some community health systems (CHSs) in low-income countries, health insurance does not cover them at commune level. Patients seeking medication in the public sector face two problems. First, there is fragmentation and lack of consistency in prescribing medication between different levels. For example, doctors at higher levels may prescribe newer-generation medication that is not covered by health insurance at CHSs; if the patients want to keep using the same medication, they have to return to the higher-level facilities or purchase them at their own expense. While most basic HTN medication is cheap, newer generations may be less affordable. Second, current regulations, according to JAHR 2014,(89) allow provincial facilities to dispense HTN medication for short periods. These short periods of prescribed medication require more visits to health facilities, which increases the treatment cost for patients, reduces their compliance, and decreases the odds of HTN control.

Helmer, 2018(44): Much research has been done to assess the best hypertensive treatment approaches in black patients; however, there is a paucity of high-quality data. Although there are no published data assessing clinical outcomes specifically in black patients using ACEi or ARB monotherapy, evidence from subgroup analyses and cohort studies suggests that these patients may have higher rates of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular outcomes compared with those taking other antihypertensives

Tajeu, 2017(83): Increasing treatment rates and adherence among black adults may allow third-party payers and healthcare providers to align themselves with the National Academies of the Sciences – Health and Medicine Division’s commitment to address racial disparities in care.

Indirect evidence, Buckley, 2016(90): A unique and complex array of factors may influence African American beliefs about HTN. First, African Americans may have impaired access to health care and education, although one study suggested this gap has significantly decreased due to public health initiatives. Many African American participants expressed a distrust of the health care system and the belief that they received different or worse care than patients of other ethnicities. These beliefs may lead African Americans to choose alternative views on HTN. Alternatively, African Americans may have chosen to entrust friends, family, and community members with their medical care independently of their views on the medical system. Prior research has suggested that the immediate community significantly influences the beliefs and behaviours of African Americans.

Alsabbagh, 2014(91): Higher socioeconomic status (SES) was associated with a lower risk of nonadherence in 31 of 40 cohorts (77.5%), with no difference in one cohort, and with a higher risk of nonadherence in eight cohorts. Overall, the pooled adjusted risk estimate indicated a lower risk of nonadherence among individuals with a higher SES: 0.89 (95% CI 0.87–0.92; P 0.001). In health care research, low SES has proven to be a strong predictor of health care utilization, morbidity, and premature death. Nonadherence to chronic medications, such as antihypertensives (AHTs), can also be determined by low SES.

Lewis, 2012(92): Patients who experience fewer logistic barriers (i.e. difficulty obtaining clinic appointments and health insurance) have better medication adherence rates.

Acceptability

Shahaj, 2019(12): Deliberately choosing to avoid or reduce medication (intentional nonadherence), rather than forgetfulness, was a theme in some studies. For some patients, symptoms acted as a guide for the seriousness of their HTN and guided their medication use; for example, they stopped treatment if symptoms disappeared. Some were guided by stress, using medication to manage worry or anxiety rather than HTN. Fear of dependency affected the amount of medication they took.

Gwadry, 2013(93): A significant improvement in medication adherence was found with increasing age and provider visits, and reductions in multiple-dosing regimens and medication class.

Alghurair, 2012(94): Twelve surveys studied poor adherence caused by therapy-related barriers. The most commonly identified barriers from this dimension were occurrence of side-effects, complexity of drug regimens, and interference of medication taking with daily routines.

Wetzel, 2004(95): An inverse association between dose regimen and compliance is shown, with mean compliance percentages being higher on a once-daily regimen (85–94%) compared to a twice-daily regimen (75–88%).

Feasibility

Angeli, 2012(96): The use of single-pill combinations implies less flexibility in modifying the doses of individual components and the exposure of patients to unnecessary therapy. Moreover, should a patient develop side-effects to one component, the entire combination should be discontinued and replaced by multiple pills. Using single-pill combinations, the physician cannot easily titrate one component without changing the other. None of the tablets currently available on the market are able to be broken to allow sufficient flexibility. Only specific manufacturing options might be suitable to achieve a successful titration in clinical practice.

Outcome utilities

Please refer to Table 78 below.

Table 78Utilities per outcome for PICO questions 4–7

OutcomesUtilitySystematic review (SR)Primary studies reported in the SR
Hypertension 0.96Ren 2020(14)Li 2015(15)
0.98 (range: 1–0.95)Kawalec 2015(16)Burstrom 2001(17), Sullivan 2008(18), Wang 2008(19)
Type 2 diabetes mellitus 0.985Gad 2020(20)Salomon 2012(21)
MACE Time NR: All CVD excluding stroke: 0.73 (95%CI: 0.69–0.76)Kawalec 2015(16)Lunde, 2013(22)
Stroke First month after onset: 0.55Ren 2020(14)Li 2015(15)
Days 1–3: 0.70Gu 2015(8)Salomon 2012(21)
Days 4–28: 0.88Gu 2015(8)Salomon 2012(21)
Chronic state: 0.65Ren 2020(14)Huang 2017(23)
Time NR: 0.70 (95%CI: 0.67-0.73)Kawalec 2015(16)Golicki 2010(24)
MI First month after onset: 0.60Ren 2020(14)Li 2015(15)
Days 1–3: 0.58Gu 2015(8)Salomon 2012(21)
Days 4–28: 0.94Gu 2015(8)Salomon 2012(21)
Chronic state: 0.70Ren 2020(14)Huang 2017(23)
Time NR: Disability weight 0.124Gad 2020(20)Salomon 2012(21)
ESRD ESRD pre-dialysis: 0.73 (95% CI: 0.62–1)Cooper 2020(25)Jesky 2016(26)
Hemodialysis: 0.75 (SD: 0.25)Cooper 2020(25)Briggs 2016(27)
Cognitive impairment/dementia Patient rating: 0.85 (SD: 0.19)NARowen 2015(28)

Patient rating:

mild dementia 0.79 (SD: 0.22)

moderate dementia: 0.72 (0.23)

NAOrgeta 2015(29)

Carer rating:

mild dementia 0.63 (SD: 0.27)

moderate dementia: 0.52 (0.27)

NAOrgeta 2015(29)
HF events First month after onset: 0.63Ren 2020(14)Li 2015(15)
Chronic state: 0.73Ren 2020(14)Huang 2017(23)
Time NR: 0.79Gad 2020(20)Salomon 2012(21)
Adverse events Common: 0.88Gu 2015(8)Clinical Judgement
Infrequent: 0.70Gu 2015(8)Salomon 2012(21)

PICO question 8: In adults with hypertension requiring pharmacological intervention, is the use of a single-pill combination of antihypertensive drugs associated with improved outcomes?

Systematic review for desirable and undesirable effects

Evidence was considered in respect of the following components (Table 79) to determine whether the use of a single-pill combination of antihypertensive drugs is associated with improved outcomes in adults with hypertension requiring pharmacological intervention (Table 80).

Table 79Components for PICO question 8

PopulationInterventionComparisonOutcomesSubgroup
Adult men and women with hypertension requiring pharmacological intervention Single-pill combination of antihypertensive drugs – five classes (any two or more from the five)Pharmacological interventions that do not involve use of single-pill combinations
-

death (all-cause mortality)

-

cardiovascular death (death from MI sudden cardiac death or stroke)

-

stroke

-

myocardial infarction

-

end-stage kidney disease

-

heart failure events.

-

adverse effects

-

patient satisfaction

-

adherence

-

BP level/change

-

number of antihypertensive medications

Based on different effect modifiers such as:
-

estimated cardiovascular risk (pre-existing CAD)

-

stroke

-

diabetes

-

age

-

sex

-

chronic kidney disease

-

race/ethnicity

-

level of baseline BP

Table 80Evidence profile 8a: Single-pill combination compared to no single-pill combination in patients with hypertension

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsSingle-pill combinationNo single-pill combinationRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Adverse events (follow up: range 4 weeks to 4 months; assessed with: Mallat, 2016(97))
4randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousseriousbnone56/124 (45.2%)51/125 (40.8%)

RR 1.13

(0.85 to 1.50)

53 more per 1000

(from 61 fewer to 204 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Blood pressure control (number of patients achieving BP target at the end of the trial) (follow up: range 4 weeks to 12 weeks; assessed with: Mallat, 2016(97))
3randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousseriousbnone42/51 (82.4%)38/52 (73.1%)

RR 1.11

(0.92 to 1.33)

80 more per 1000

(from 58 fewer to 241 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Mean systolic BP (follow up: range 4 weeks to 4 months; assessed with: Mallat, 2016(97))
3randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriouscnone6262-

MD 0.81 mmHg lower

(3.25 lower to 1.64 higher)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Adherence (medicine possession ratio (MPR): the number of days of medication supply within the prescription refill interval. A patient is adherent if MPR >0.8) (follow up: range 6 months to 13 months; assessed with: Kawalec, 2018(98))
2observational studiesnot seriousdnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone1073/1840 (58.3%)376/927 (40.6%)

OR 1.47

(1.23 to 1.74)

95 more per 1000

(from 51 more to 137 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Adherence (proportion of days covered (PDC): the percentage of days during which a medication was taken by patients, on the basis of the proportion of days covered. A patient is adherent if PDC>0.80) (follow up: median 12 months; assessed with: Kawalec, 2018(98))
2observational studiesnot seriousdnot seriousenot seriousnot seriousnone3162/7077 (44.7%)2329/10 060 (23.2%)

OR 2.25

(1.09 to 4.64)

172 more per 1000

(from 16 more to 351 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Adherence (medicine possession ratio (MPR): the number of days of medication supply within the prescription refill interval). (follow up: range 6 months to 5 years; assessed with: Kawalec, 2018(98))
4observational studiesnot seriousdnot seriousfnot seriousnot seriousnone386 723203 571-

MD 13.2 days higher

(8.9 higher to 17.2 higher)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Adherence (Proportion of days covered (PDC): the percentage of days during which a medication was taken by patients, on the basis of the proportion of days covered. (follow up: mean 12 months; assessed with: Kawalec, 2018(98))
1observational studiesnot seriousdnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone48647748

MD 29 days higher

(27.8 higher to 30.2 higher)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Medication persistence (based on prescription refill interval) (follow up: 6 months; assessed with: Kawalec, 2018(98))
2observational studiesnot seriousdnot seriousenot seriousnot seriousnone227 996/384 104 (59.4%)80 489/197 936 (40.7%)

OR 3.82

(1.20 to 12.21)g

317 more per 1000

(from 45 more to 487 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Medication persistence (based on prescription refill interval) (follow up: 12 months; assessed with: Kawalec, 2018(98))
4observational studiesnot seriousdnot seriousseriousnot seriousnone6898/11 465 (60.2%)1950/9115 (21.4%)

OR 3.24

(1.30 to 8.08)g

255 more per 1000

(from 47 more to 473 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

All-cause mortality – not reported
Cardiovascular mortality – not reported
Stroke – not reported
Myocardial infarction – not reported
End-stage kidney disease – not reported
Heart failure – not reported
Patient satisfaction – not reported
Number of antihypertensive medications – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio; MD: Mean difference; OR: Odds ratio

Explanations

a

All included trials had unclear or high risk of bias.

b

The confidence interval suggests the possibility of important benefit and important harm.

c

The confidence interval is precise around the line of no effect, suggesting the possibility of trivial benefit and trivial harm.

d

According to the authors’ analysis, risk of bias was not associated with study results.

e

The CIs of the studies do not overlap; however, this is due to the very precise estimates, which are not qualitatively different.

f

Although there is statistical heterogeneity, all studies are consistent with regards to the direction of the effect and thus we decided to not rate down further.

g

Another systematic review (Du, 2018(99)) also reports this outcome, but without providing a specific time point. The RR was 1.84 (95% CI, 1.00 to 3.39).

Evidence to decision for PICO question 8

Values and preferences

Krousel, 2005(100): Simplification of dosing regimens as an approach to increased medication adherence has been examined in several studies. This approach draws on the principle that adherence relies on patients remembering to take medication rather than an unwillingness to tolerate side-effects or a lack of motivation for compliance. Two out of three systematic reviews reported that simplifying dosing regimens results in significant improvements in medication adherence, ranging from 6–20%.

Resources required

Indirect evidence in PICOs 4–7 Resources section.

Cost effectiveness

An economic evaluation sponsored by Daiichi-Sankyo in China(14) was very well designed Model inputs for drug efficacy and other outcomes were based on a systematic review and MA/NMA. However, the process for selecting references for utilities was not clear, leaving the possibility of bias in choosing inputs for utilities. They constructed a Markov model with five health states, analysed from a payer perspective over a 20-year time horizon. Olmesartan/amlodipine single-pill combination was dominant compared with olmesartan and amlodipine multiple-pill combination and valsartan/amlodipine single-pill combination.

Equity

No research evidence.

Acceptability

Angeli, 2012(96): compliance with medications was modestly higher with single-pill combinations compared with multiple-pill combinations (odds ratio [OR] 1.21; 95% CI 1.03, 1.43). However, single-pill combinations did not result in a significantly longer persistence with treatment when compared with multiple-pill combinations (OR 1.54; 95% CI 0.95, 2.49).

Feasibility

No research evidence.

Outcome utilities

Please refer to Table 81 below.

Table 81Utilities per outcome for PICO question 8

OutcomesUtilitySystematic reviewPrimary studies reported in the SR
Hypertension 0.96Ren 2020(14)Li 2015(15)
0.98 (range: 1 – 0.95)Kawalec 2015(16)Burstrom 2001(17), Sullivan 2008(18), Wang 2008(19)
Type 2 diabetes mellitus 0.985Gad 2020(20)Salomon 2012(21)
MACE Time NR: All CVD excluding stroke: 0.73 (95%CI: 0.69–0.76)Kawalec 2015(16)Lunde, 2013(22)
Stroke First month after onset: 0.55Ren 2020(14)Li 2015(15)
Days 1-3: 0.70Gu 2015(8)Salomon 2012(21)
Days 4-28: 0.88Gu 2015(8)Salomon 2012(21)
Chronic state: 0.65Ren 2020(14)Huang 2017(23)
Time NR: 0.70 (95%CI: 0.67-0.73)Kawalec 2015(16)Golicki 2010(24)
MI First month after onset: 0.60Ren 2020(14)Li 2015(15)
Days 1-3: 0.58Gu 2015(8)Salomon 2012(21)
Days 4-28: 0.94Gu 2015(8)Salomon 2012(21)
Chronic state: 0.70Ren 2020(14)Huang 2017(23)
Time NR: Disability weight 0.124Gad 2020(20)Salomon 2012(21)
ESRD ESRD pre-dialysis: 0.73 (95% CI: 0.62–1)Cooper 2020(25)Jesky 2016(26)
Hemodialysis: 0.75 (SD: 0.25)Cooper 2020(25)Briggs 2016(27)
Cognitive impairment/dementia Patient rating: 0.85 (SD: 0.19)NARowen 2015(28)

Patient rating:.

mild dementia 0.79 (SD: 0.22)

moderate dementia: 0.72 (0.23)

NAOrgeta 2015(29)

Carer rating:

mild dementia 0.63 (SD: 0.27)

moderate dementia: 0.52 (0.27)

NAOrgeta 2015(29)
HF events First month after onset: 0.63Ren 2020(14)Li 2015(15)
Chronic state: 0.73Ren 2020(14)Huang 2017(23)
Time NR: 0.79Gad 2020(20)Salomon 2012(21)
Adverse events Common: 0.88Gu 2015(8)Clinical Judgement
Infrequent: 0.70Gu 2015(8)Salomon 2012(21)

PICO question 9: What target blood pressure should pharmacological treatment aim to achieve?

Systematic review for desirable and undesirable effects

Evidence was considered in respect of the following components (Table 82) to determine that target blood pressure (BP) pharmacologic treatment should aim to achieve (Table 83Table 90).

Table 82Components for PICO question 9

PopulationInterventionComparisonOutcomeSubgroup
Adult men and women (>18 years old) with primary hypertension requiring pharmacological treatment Specific systolic and diastolic BP targets:
-

Systolic (mm Hg):

-

<120, <130, <140, <150

-

Diastolic (mm Hg):

-

<70, <80`, <90

Systolic or diastolic BP targets that are higher than the intervention targets
-

death (all-cause mortality)

-

cardiovascular death (death from MI, sudden cardiac death or stroke)

-

stroke

-

myocardial infarction

-

end-stage kidney disease

-

cognitive impairment/dementia

-

heart failure events

-

adverse effects

Based on different effect modifiers such as:
-

estimated cardiovascular risk

-

pre-existing CAD

-

stroke

-

diabetes

-

age

-

sex

-

chronic kidney disease

-

race/ethnicity

-

level of baseline BP

Table 83Evidence profile 9a: A systolic blood pressure target <130 mm/Hg compared to a systolic blood pressure target <140 mm/Hg in patients with hypertension

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsSBP target <130 mm/HgSBP target <140 mm/HgRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
All-cause mortality (follow up: mean 3.5 years; assessed with: Arguedas, 2020(101))
3randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousseriousbnone111/2151 (5.2%)106/2164 (4.9%)

RR 1.06

(0.82 to 1.37)

3 more per 1000

(from 9 fewer to 18 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Cardiovascular mortality (follow up: mean 3.5 years; assessed with: Arguedas, 2020(101))
2randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousseriouscnone36/1593 (2.3%)41/1611 (2.5%)

RR 0.87

(0.56 to 1.34)

3 fewer per 1000

(from 11 fewer to 9 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Total serious adverse events (Total serious morbidity and mortality) (assessed with: Arguedas, 2020(101))
2randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousseriousdnone46/1593 (2.9%)341/1611 (21.2%)

RR 1.05

(0.92 to 1.20)

11 more per 1000

(from 17 fewer to 42 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Myocardial infarction (follow up: mean 3.5 years; assessed with: Arguedas, 2020(101))
3randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousenone40/2151 (1.9%)46/2164 (2.1%)

RR 0.88

(0.58 to 1.33)

3 fewer per 1000

(from 9 fewer to 7 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Stroke (follow up: mean 3.5 years; assessed with: Arguedas, 2020(101))
2randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousseriousfnone126/1593 (7.9%)153/1611 (9.5%)

RR 0.82

(0.65 to 1.02)

17 fewer per 1000

(from 33 fewer to 2 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Heart failure (follow up: mean 3.5 years; assessed with: Arguedas, 2020(101))
2randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousseriousdnone3/650 (0.5%)7/245 (2.9%)

RR 0.42

(0.11 to 1.63)

17 fewer per 1000

(from 25 fewer to 18 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Serious adverse events (follow up: mean 3.5 years; assessed with: Arguedas, 2020(101))
3randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousgnone81/2151 (3.8%)49/2164 (2.3%)

RR 1.87

(1.34 to 2.61)

20 more per 1000

(from 8 more to 36 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

End-stage kidney disease – not reported
Cognitive impairment – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio

Explanations

a

All included studies were judged at high risk of bias in at least 1 domain.

b

Using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients as an important difference, the confidence interval suggests the possibility of a trivial benefit and an important harm.

c

Using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients as an important difference, the confidence interval suggests the possibility of an important benefit and a trivial harm.

d

The confidence interval crosses the line of no effect and suggests the possibility of important benefit and important harm.

e

Using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients as an important difference, the confidence interval does not suggest the possibility of an important benefit or an important harm (i.e. the confidence interval is precise around the line of no effect).

f

The confidence interval crosses the line of no effect and suggests the possibility of important benefit and trivial harm.

g

The total number of events is small, but we were unsure of whether to rate down for optimal information size given that the total sample size is >4000 patients.

Table 84Evidence Profile 9b: A systolic blood pressure target <120 mm/Hg compared to a systolic blood pressure target 130-139 mm/Hg in patients with hypertension who are >65 years old

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsSBP target <120 mm/HgSBP target 130-139 mm/HgRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
All-cause mortality (follow up: range 12 months to 96 months; assessed with: Murad, 2019(102))
1randomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousseriousanone73/1317 (5.5%)107/1319 (8.1%)

RR 0.67

(0.49 to 0.91)

27 fewer per 1000

(from 41 fewer to 7 fewer)b

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Cardiovascular mortality (follow up: range 12 months to 96 months; assessed with: Murad, 2019(102))
1randomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousseriouscnone18/1317 (1.4%)29/1319 (2.2%)

RR 0.60

(0.33 to 1.09)

9 fewer per 1000

(from 14 fewer to 2 more)d

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Chronic kidney disease (follow up: range 12 months to 96 months; assessed with: Murad, 2019(102))
1randomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousseriouscnone5/1627 (0.3%)2/1633 (0.1%)

RR 2.45

(0.48 to 12.57)

1 more per 1000

(from 0 fewer to 12 more)e

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Heart failure (follow up: range 12 months to 96 months; assessed with: Murad, 2019(102))
2randomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousfseriousgnone h h

RR 0.62

(0.46 to 0.83)

16 fewer per 1000

(from 23 fewer to 2 more)i

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Myocardial infarction (follow up: range 12 months to 24 months; assessed with: Murad, 2019(102))
1randomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousseriouscnone37/1317 (2.8%)53/1319 (4.0%)

RR 0.69

(0.45 to 1.05)

12 fewer per 1000

(from 22 fewer to 2 more)j

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Stroke (follow up: range 12 months to 96 months; assessed with: Murad, 2019(102))
1randomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousseriouscnone18/1317 (1.4%)29/1319 (2.2%)

RR 0.68

(0.40 to 1.15)

8 fewer per 1000

(from 15 fewer to 3 more)k

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Cognitive impairment – not reported
Adverse events – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio

Explanations

a

The authors of the SR rated down the certainty of the evidence due to imprecision. They do not provide an explanation but it seems that it is because the OIS is not met.

b

The baseline risk they used was 81 per 1000, based in the control arm of the trial included.

c

The authors rated down the certainty of the evidence two levels due to imprecision, but based on the absolute estimates of effect, we are rating down just once.

d

The baseline risk they used was 22 per 1000, based in the control arm of the trial included..

e

The baseline risk they used was one per 1000, based in the control arm of the trial included..

f

According to the ACC/AHA guidelines, in the description of their evidence regarding patients with heart failure: “In adults with hypertension (SBP 130 mm Hg or DBP 80 mm Hg) and a high risk of CVD, a strong body of evidence supports treatment with antihypertensive medications (see Section 8.1.2) and more intensive rather than less-intensive intervention. In SPRINT, a more intensive intervention that targeted an SBP <120 mm Hg significantly reduced the primary outcome (CVD composite) by about 25%. The incidence of HF, a component of the primary outcome, was also substantially decreased (hazard ratio: 0.62; 95% confidence interval: 0.45–0.84). Meta-analyses of clinical trials have identified a similar beneficial effect of more-intensive BP reduction on the incidence of HF, but the body of information from studies confined to trials that randomly assigned participants to different BP targets is more limited and less compelling”.

g

The authors of the systematic review rated down the certainty of the evidence one level due to imprecision. The confidence interval suggests the possibility of a small benefit and a trivial harm.

h

The total number of participants per arm and study is only reported in one of the two studies providing information for this outcome. The total of participants is 2636.

i

They used a baseline risk of 42 per 1000, based on the result on the trial included that reported the information per arm.

j

The baseline risk they used was 40 per 1000, based in the control arm of the trial included.

k

The baseline risk they used was 25 per 1000, based in the control arm of the trial included.

Table 85Evidence Profile 9c: A systolic blood pressure target <130 mm/Hg compared to a systolic blood pressure target 130-149 mm/Hg in patients with hypertension who are >65 years old

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsSBP target <130 mm/HgSBP target 130–149 mm/HgRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
All-cause mortality (follow up: range 12 months to 96 months; assessed with: Murad, 2019(102))
1randomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousvery seriousanone37/248 (14.9%)40/246 (16.3%)

RR 0.83

(0.55 to 1.26)

28 fewer per 1000

(from 73 fewer to 42 more)b

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Cardiovascular mortality (follow up: range 12 months to 24 months; assessed with: Murad, 2019(102))
1randomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousseriouscnone8/248 (3.2%)17/246 (6.9%)

RR 0.42

(0.18 to 0.98)

40 fewer per 1000

(from 56 fewer to 1 fewer)d

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Myocardial infarction (follow up: range 12 months to 96 months; assessed with: Murad, 2019(102))
1randomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousvery seriousanone5/248 (2.0%)6/246 (2.4%)

RR 0.77

(0.23 to 2.55)

6 fewer per 1000

(from 18 fewer to 37 more)e

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Stroke (follow up: range 12 months to 96 months; assessed with: Murad, 2019(102))
1randomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousseriousfnone8/248 (3.2%)17/246 (6.9%)

RR 0.89

(0.62 to 1.27)

7 fewer per 1000

(from 26 fewer to 18 more)g

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Chronic kidney disease – not reported
Hear failure – not reported
Cognitive impairment – not reported
Adverse events – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio

Explanations

a

The authors rated down the certainty of the evidence two levels due to imprecision. We agree with this judgment based on the absolute estimates of effect that suggest the possibility of an important benefit and an important harm.

b

They used as a baseline risk 163 per 1000 patients, based on the control arm of the included study.

c

The authors rated down for imprecision but did not provide an explanation. It is likely that the optimal information size is not met. In a partially or fully contextualized approach, the 95% CI suggest the possibility of trivial benefit in one extreme and important benefit in the other extreme.

d

They used a baseline risk of 69 per 1000 patients, based on the control arm of the included study.

e

They used a baseline risk of 24 per 1000 patients, based on the control arm of the included study.

f

The authors of the systematic review rated down the certainty of the evidence two levels due to imprecision. Based on the absolute estimates of effect suggesting the possibility of small benefit and small harm, we only rated down one level.

g

We used a baseline risk of 69 per 1000, based on the control arm of the included study.

Table 86Evidence profile 9d: A systolic blood pressure target <140 mm/Hg compared to a systolic blood pressure target 140–160 mm/Hg in patients with hypertension who are >65 years old

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsSBP target <140 mm/HgSBP target 140-160 mm/HgRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
All-cause mortality (follow up: range 12 months to 96 months; assessed with: Murad, 2019(102))
2randomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousaseriousbnone78/3260 (2.4%)72/3839 (1.9%)

RR 1.03

(0.64 to 1.67)

1 more per 1000

(from 6 fewer to 12 more)c

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Cardiovascular mortality (follow up: range 12 months to 24 months; assessed with: Murad, 2019(102))
2randomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousdnone17/3839 (0.4%)15/3839 (0.4%)

RR 1.11

(0.55 to 2.23)

0 fewer per 1000

(from 2 fewer to 5 more)e

⨁⨁⨁⨁

HIGH

Chronic kidney disease
2randomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousdnone15/2796 (0.5%)13/2783 (0.5%)

RR 1.11

(0.51 to 2.39)

1 more per 1000

(from 2 fewer to 7 more)f

⨁⨁⨁⨁

HIGH

Heart failure (follow up: range 12 months to 96 months; assessed with: Murad, 2019(102))
1randomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousdnone8/2212 (0.4%)7/2206 (0.3%)

RR 1.14

(0.41 to 3.14)

0 fewer per 1000

(from 2 fewer to 6 more)g

⨁⨁⨁⨁

HIGH

Myocardial infarction (follow up: range 12 months to 96 months; assessed with: Murad, 2019(102))
2randomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousdnone11/3839 (0.3%)10/3839 (0.3%)

RR 1.09

(0.46 to 2.57)

0 fewer per 1000

(from 2 fewer to 6 more)g

⨁⨁⨁⨁

HIGH

Stroke (follow up: range 12 months to 96 months; assessed with: Murad, 2019(102))
2randomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousdnone17/3839 (0.4%)15/3839 (0.4%)

RR 0.90

(0.61 to 1.35)

2 fewer per 1000

(from 7 fewer to 6 more)h

⨁⨁⨁⨁

HIGH

End-stage kidney disease – not reported
Cognitive impairment – not reported
Serious adverse events – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio

Explanations

a

The ACC/AHA guidelines describe as evidence, “In patients with increased cardiovascular risk [Stable Ischemic heart disease], reduction of SBP to <130/80 mm Hg has been shown to reduce CVD complications by 25% and all-cause mortality by 27%.”

b

The authors rated down the certainty of the evidence two levels. However, the CI suggests the possibility of a trivial benefit and a small harm, and therefore we rated down only one level.

c

They used a baseline risk of 19 per 1000 patients, based on the control arm of the two included studies.

d

The authors rated down the certainty of the evidence two levels. However, the CI is precise around the line of no effect and there is a large sample size included.

e

They used a baseline risk of 4 per 1000 patients, based on the control arm of the two included studies.

f

They used a baseline risk of 5 per 1000, based on the control arm of the two included studies.

g

They used a baseline risk of 3 per 1000 patients, based on the control arm of the included study.

h

We used the numbers reported by the authors of the systematic review. They used a baseline risk of 17 per 1000 patients.

Table 87Evidence profile 9e: A blood pressure target <140/90 mmHg compared to a blood pressure target <150 to 160/95 to 105 mm/Hg in patients with hypertension who are >65 years old

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsBP target <140/90 mmHgBP <150 to 160/95 to 105 mm/HgRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
All-cause mortality (follow up: range 2 years to 4 years; assessed with: Garrison, 2017(103))
3randomized trialsseriousaseriousbnot seriousnot seriouscnone129/4120 (3.1%)159/4101 (3.9%)

RR 0.81

(0.65 to 1.01)

7 fewer per 1000

(from 14 fewer to 0 fewer)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Cardiovascular mortality (follow up: range 2 years to 4 years; assessed with: Garrison, 2017(103))
3randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone45/4120 (1.1%)68/4101 (1.7%)

RR 0.66

(0.46 to 0.94)

6 fewer per 1000

(from 9 fewer to 1 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Stroke (follow up: range 2 years to 4 years; assessed with: Garrison, 2017(103))
3randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousdnone81/4120 (2.0%)101/4101 (2.5%)

RR 0.80

(0.60 to 1.06)

5 fewer per 1000

(from 10 fewer to 1 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Cardiovascular serious adverse events (follow up: range 2 years to 4 years; assessed with: Garrison, 2017(103))
3randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousdnone173/4120 (4.2%)205/4101 (5.0%)

RR 0.84

(0.69 to 1.02)

8 fewer per 1000

(from 15 fewer to 1 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Serious adverse events (follow up: median 3 years; assessed with: Garrison, 2017(103))
1randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousenone80/1534 (5.2%)87/1545 (5.6%)

RR 1.08

(0.81 to 1.45)

5 more per 1000

(from 11 fewer to 25 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Myocardial infarction – not reported
End-stage kidney disease – not reported
Heart failure – not reported
Cognitive impairment – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio

Explanations

a

All included studies were judged at high risk of bias.

b

Not all the confidence intervals overlap, the I-squared is 79%, and the p value of the statistical test of heterogeneity is statistically significant.

c

Although the upper bound of the confidence interval crosses the null effect, this is likely to be the result of inconsistency and thus we decided to not rate down further.

d

Although the upper bound of the confidence interval crosses the null effect, the absolute estimate is precise around this line.

e

Although the confidence interval crosses the null effect, the absolute estimate is precise around this line.

Table 88Evidence profile 9f: A systolic blood pressure target <130 mm/Hg compared to a systolic blood pressure target <140 mm/Hg in patients with ischemic stroke, haemorrhagic stroke, or transient ischemic attack

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsSBP target <130 mm/HgSBP target <140 mm/HgRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
All-cause mortality (follow up: range 12 months to 44 months; assessed with: Zonneveld, 2018(5))
3randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousbnone112/1808 (6.2%)105/1824 (5.8%)

RR 1.08

(0.83 to 1.39)

5 more per 1000

(from 10 fewer to 22 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Stroke (fatal and non fatal) (follow up: range 12 months to 44 months; assessed with: Zonneveld, 2018(5))
3randomized trialsseriouscnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousbnone119/1808 (6.6%)153/1824 (8.4%)

RR 0.80

(0.63 to 1.00)

17 fewer per 1000

(from 31 fewer to 0 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Recurrent stroke over time (follow up: median 44 months; assessed with: Zonneveld, 2018(5))
1randomized trialsseriousdnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousbnone-/1501-/1519

HR 0.81

(0.64 to 1.03)

-- per 1000

(from -- to --)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Major cardiovascular event (composite of non-fatal stroke, non-fatal myocardial infarction, or death from any vascular cause) (follow up: range 12 months to 44 months; assessed with: Zonneveld, 2018(5))
3randomized trialsseriousenot seriousnot seriousseriousfnone162/1808 (9.0%)197/1824 (10.8%)

RR 0.58

(0.23 to 1.46)

45 fewer per 1000

(from 83 fewer to 50 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Ischemic stroke (follow up: range 24 months to 44 months; assessed with: Zonneveld, 2018(5))
2randomized trialsseriousgnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousbnone112/1542 (7.3%)133/1561 (8.5%)

RR 0.86

(0.67 to 1.09)

12 fewer per 1000

(from 28 fewer to 8 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Hemorrhagic stroke (follow up: range 24 months to 44 months; assessed with: Zonneveld, 2018(5))
2randomized trialsserioushnot seriousnot seriousnot serioushnone7/1542 (0.5%)17/1561 (1.1%)

RR 0.42

(0.17 to 1.02)

6 fewer per 1000

(from 9 fewer to 0 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Myocardial infarction (follow up: range 12 months to 44 months; assessed with: Zonneveld, 2018(5))
3randomized trialsseriousinot seriousnot seriousnot seriousbnone37/1808 (2.0%)42/1824 (2.3%)

RR 0.90

(0.58 to 1.38)

2 fewer per 1000

(from 10 fewer to 9 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Vascular death (follow up: range 12 months to 44 months; assessed with: Zonneveld, 2018(5))
2randomized trialsseriousjnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousbnone36/1767 (2.0%)42/1782 (2.4%)

RR 0.87

(0.56 to 1.35)

3 fewer per 1000

(from 10 fewer to 8 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Heart failure – not reported
End-stage kidney disease – not reported
Cognitive impairment – not reported
Adverse events – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio; HR: Hazard Ratio

Explanations

a

The trial that has most of the weight of the pooled estimate (95.6%) was judged at unclear risk of bias. We rated down one level when also considering that the CI suggests the possibility of a small benefit and a small harm.

b

We did not rate down the certainty of the evidence further due to imprecision. See comment under risk of bias for this outcome.

c

The trial that has most of the weight of the pooled estimate (98.3%) was judged at unclear risk of bias. We rated down one level when also considering the potential imprecision reflected by the upper limit of the CI, which is suggesting that there could be no benefit..

d

The only trial providing information for this outcome was judged at unclear risk of bias. We rated down one level when also considering the potential imprecision reflected by the upper limit of the CI, which is suggesting that there could be no benefit or some harm.

e

The trial that has most of the weight of the pooled estimate (70.5%) was judged at unclear risk of bias..

f

The 95% CI suggests important benefit and important harm. We only rated down one level because we already rated down for risk of bias, although the risk of bias was unclear.

g

The trial that has most of the weight of the pooled estimate (99.4%) was judged at unclear risk of bias. We rated down one level when also considering the potential imprecision reflected by the upper limit of the CI, which is suggesting that there could be a small harm.

h

The trial that has most of the weight of the pooled estimate (89.5%) was judged at unclear risk of bias. We rated down one level when also considering the potential imprecision reflected by the upper limit of the CI, which is suggesting that there could be no benefit..

i

The trial that has most of the weight of the pooled estimate (95.7%) was judged at unclear risk of bias. We rated down one level when also considering the potential imprecision reflected by the upper limit of the CI, which is suggesting that there could be a small harm.

j

The trial that has most of the weight of the pooled estimate (98.1%) was judged at unclear risk of bias. We rated down one level when also considering the potential imprecision reflected by the upper limit of the CI, which is suggesting that there could be a small harm

Table 89Evidence profile 9g: A blood pressure target <135/85 mm/Hg compared to a blood pressure target <140 to 160/90 to 100 mm/Hg in patients with hypertension and cardiovascular disease

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsBP target <135/85 mm/HgBP target <140 to 160/90 to 100 mm/HgRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Mortality (follow up: mean 3.7 years; assessed with: Saiz, 2017(104))
6randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousseriousbnone373/5456 (6.8%)294/4339 (6.8%)

RR 1.05

(0.90 to 1.22)

3 more per 1000

(from 7 fewer to 15 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Cardiovascular mortality (follow up: mean 3.7 years; assessed with: Saiz, 2017(104))
6randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriouscnone169/5456 (3.1%)137/4339 (3.2%)

RR 0.96

(0.77 to 1.21)

1 fewer per 1000

(from 7 fewer to 7 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Serious adverse events (follow up: median 3.7 years; assessed with: Saiz, 2017(104))
6randomized trialsseriousanot seriousdnot seriousseriousbnone966/5456 (17.7%)805/4339 (18.6%)

RR 1.02

(0.95 to 1.11)

4 more per 1000

(from 9 fewer to 20 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Cardiovascular events (follow up: mean 3.7 years; assessed with: Saiz, 2017(104))
6randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone555/5456 (10.2%)535/4339 (12.3%)

RR 0.87

(0.78 to 0.98)

16 fewer per 1000

(from 27 fewer to 2 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Stroke – not reported
Myocardial infarction – not reported
Heart failure – not reported
End-stage kidney disease – not reported
Cognitive impairment – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio

Explanations

a

All included studies were judged at high risk of bias in at least 1 domain.

b

The CI suggests the possibility of trivial benefit and small but important harm.

c

Although the 95% CI crosses the line of no effect, the absolute effect is precise around this line.

d

The authors conducted a subgroup analysis based on the method of measurement of the outcome (total SAEs vs subset of total SAEs), but the results were not different between subgroups.

Table 90Evidence profile 9h: A systolic blood pressure target < 120 (mmHg) compared to a systolic blood pressure target <140 (mmHg) for individuals with hypertension and chronic kidney disease and without diabetes

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsSBP target <120 (mmHg)SBP target <140 (mmHg)Relative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Source
Cheung, 2017(105) (SPRINT-CKD)
Primary cardiovascular outcome, defined as the composite of myocardial infarction, acute coronary syndrome, stroke, acute decompensated heart failure, and death from cardiovascular causes (median follow up 3.3 years)
1a,b,c,drandomized trialsseriousenot seriousnot seriousseriousfnone112/1330 (8.4%)131/1316 (10.0%)

HR 0.81

(0.63 to 1.05)

18 fewer per 1000

(from 36 fewer to 5 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

All-cause death (median follow up 3.3 years)
1g,h,i,jrandomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousseriousknone70/1330 (5.3%)95/1316 (7.2%)

HR 0.72

(0.53 to 0.99)

20 fewer per 1000

(from 33 fewer to 1 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Main kidney outcome, defined as the composite of a decrease in eGFR of ≥50% from baseline (confirmed by repeat testing ≥90 days later) or the development of ESRD (median follow up 3.3 years)
1randomized trialsseriousenot seriousnot seriousseriouslnone15/1330 (1.1%)16/1316 (1.2%)

HR 0.90

(0.44 to 1.83)

1 fewer per 1000

(from 7 fewer to 10 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Myocardial infarction
1randomized trialsseriousenot seriousnot seriousseriousmnone44/1330 (3.3%)45/1316 (3.4%)

HR 0.94

(0.62 to 1.44)

2 fewer per 1000

(from 13 fewer to 15 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Acute coronary syndrome
1randomized trialsseriousenot seriousnot seriousseriouslnone15/1330 (1.1%)11/1316 (0.8%)

HR 1.35

(0.60 to 3.08)

3 more per 1000

(from 3 fewer to 17 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Stroke
1randomized trialsseriousenot seriousnot seriousseriouslnone27/1330 (2.0%)27/1316 (2.1%)

HR 0.99

(0.57 to 1.70)

0 fewer per 1000

(from 9 fewer to 14 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Heart failure
1randomized trialsseriousenot seriousnot seriousseriousfnone41/1330 (3.1%)52/1316 (4.0%)

HR 0.72

(0.47 to 1.10)

11 fewer per 1000

(from 21 fewer to 4 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

CVD death
1randomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousseriousnnone18/1330 (1.4%)30/1316 (2.3%)

HR 0.57

(0.31 to 1.02)

10 fewer per 1000

(from 16 fewer to 0 fewer)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Primary outcome or cardiovascular procedure
1randomized trialsseriousenot seriousnot seriousseriousfnone127/1330 (9.5%)161/1316 (12.2%)

HR 0.81

(0.63 to 1.05)

22 fewer per 1000

(from 43 fewer to 6 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Incidence of 50% eGFR reduction from baseline
1randomized trialsseriousenot seriousnot seriousseriousonone10/1330 (0.8%)12/1316 (0.9%)

HR 0.79

(0.34 to 1.83)

2 fewer per 1000

(from 6 fewer to 8 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Incidence of 40% eGFR reduction from baseline
1randomized trialsseriousenot seriousnot seriousseriouslnone30/1330 (2.3%)19/1316 (1.4%)

HR 1.50

(0.85 to 2.68)

7 more per 1000

(from 2 fewer to 24 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Incidence of 30% eGFR reduction from baseline
1randomized trialsseriousenot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone92/1330 (6.9%)44/1316 (3.3%)

HR 2.03

(1.42 to 2.91)

33 more per 1000

(from 14 more to 61 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Incidence of 50% eGFR reduction from baseline at 6 months post-randomization
1randomized trialsseriousenot seriousnot seriousseriouslnone7/1330 (0.5%)4/1316 (0.3%)

HR 1.65

(0.48 to 5.62)

2 more per 1000

(from 2 fewer to 14 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Incidence of 40% eGFR reduction from baseline at 6 months post-randomization
1randomized trialsseriousenot seriousnot seriousseriouslnone15/1330 (1.1%)14/1316 (1.1%)

HR 1.01

(0.49 to 2.10)

0 fewer per 1000

(from 5 fewer to 12 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Incidence of 30% eGFR reduction from baseline at 6 months post-randomization
1randomized trialsseriousenot seriousnot seriousseriouslnone44/1330 (3.3%)35/1316 (2.7%)

HR 1.19

(0.76 to 1.85)

5 more per 1000

(from 6 fewer to 22 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Primary outcome or all cause death
1randomized trialsseriousenot seriousnot seriousseriousfnone152/1330 (11.4%)179/1316 (13.6%)

HR 0.82

(0.66 to 1.02)

23 fewer per 1000

(from 44 fewer to 3 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Hypotension
1randomized trialsseriousenot seriousnot seriousseriouslnone51/1330 (3.8%)38/1316 (2.9%)

HR 1.34

(0.88 to 2.04)

10 more per 1000

(from 3 fewer to 29 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Syncope
1randomized trialsseriousenot seriousnot seriousseriouslnone54/1330 (4.1%)42/1316 (3.2%)

HR 1.28

(0.86 to 1.92)

9 more per 1000

(from 4 fewer to 28 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Bradycardia
1randomized trialsseriousenot seriousnot seriousseriousmnone37/1330 (2.8%)40/1316 (3.0%)

HR 0.92

(0.59 to 1.44)

2 fewer per 1000

(from 12 fewer to 13 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Electrolytes abnormalities
1randomized trialsseriousenot seriousnot seriousseriouslnone69/1330 (5.2%)51/1316 (3.9%)

HR 1.35

(0.94 to 1.94)

13 more per 1000

(from 2 fewer to 35 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Injurious fall
1randomized trialsseriousenot seriousnot seriousseriousmnone125/1330 (9.4%)138/1316 (10.5%)

HR 0.90

(0.71 to 1.15)

10 fewer per 1000

(from 29 fewer to 15 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Acute kidney failure
1randomized trialsseriousenot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone114/1330 (8.6%)78/1316 (5.9%)

HR 1.46

(1.10 to 1.95)

26 more per 1000

(from 6 more to 53 more)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Serum sodium <130 mmol/l
1randomized trialsseriousenot seriousnot seriousseriouslnone49/1330 (3.7%)35/1316 (2.7%)

HR 1.39

(0.90 to 2.15)

10 more per 1000

(from 3 fewer to 30 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Serum potassium <3.0 mmol/l
1randomized trialsseriousenot seriousnot seriousseriouslnone30/1330 (2.3%)16/1316 (1.2%)

HR 1.87

(1.02 to 3.43)

10 more per 1000

(from 0 fewer to 29 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Serum potassium >5.5 mmol/l
1randomized trialsseriousenot seriousnot seriousseriouspnone106/1330 (8.0%)78/1316 (5.9%)

HR 1.36

(1.01 to 1.82)

20 more per 1000

(from 1 more to 46 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Orthostatic hypotension without dizziness
1randomized trialsseriousenot seriousnot seriousseriousmnone301/1330 (22.6%)302/1316 (22.9%)

HR 0.99

(0.85 to 1.17)

2 fewer per 1000

(from 31 fewer to 33 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Orthostatic hypotension with dizziness
1randomized trialsseriousenot seriousnot seriousseriouslnone24/1330 (1.8%)23/1316 (1.7%)

HR 1.04

(0.59 to 1.84)

1 more per 1000

(from 7 fewer to 14 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Total serious adverse events over the entire duration of follow-up of 3.3 years
1randomized trialsseriousenot seriousnot seriousvery seriousmnone627/1330 (47.1%)640/1316 (48.6%)

HR 0.98

(0.87 to 1.09)

7 fewer per 1000

(from 46 fewer to 30 more)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Cognitive impairment/dementia – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; HR: Hazard Ratio

Explanations

a

Subgroup analysis based on age showed lower primary cardiovascular outcome in the subgroup of patients with age > or = 75 years with HR 0.64 (0.45-0.92) for intensive treatment vs standard treatment. The HR for patients age <75 years was 1.11 (0.74-1.66) for intensive treatment vs standard treatment. However, this analysis is a subgroup analysis of the SPRINT CKD which is a subgroup study of the SPRINT trial.

b

Subgroup analysis based on gender showed lower cardiovascular outcomes in both men and women. The HR for cardiovascular outcomes in women was 0.62 (0.39-0.99) and in men was 0.87 (0.64-1.20) for intensive treatment vs standard treatment. However, this analysis is a subgroup analysis of the SPRINT CKD which is a subgroup study of the SPRINT trial.

c

Subgroup analysis based on ethnicity showed HR for cardiovascular outcomes in black population of 1.02 (0.58-1.81) for intensive treatment vs standard treatment and in nonblack population of 0.77 (0.57-1.03) for intensive treatment vs standard treatment. However, this analysis is a subgroup analysis of the SPRINT CKD which is a subgroup study of the SPRINT trial.

d

Subgroup analysis based on albuminuria showed that in patients with ACR ≤ median, the HR of cardiovascular outcomes was 0.84 (0.51-1.36) for intensive treatment vs standard treatment and in patients with ACR > median, the HR of cardiovascular outcomes was 0.81 (0.59-1.11) for intensive treatment vs standard treatment. However, this analysis is a subgroup analysis of the SPRINT CKD which is a subgroup study of the SPRINT trial.

e

The SPRINT trial is at high risk of bias in the domain of blinding. SPRINT CKD is subgroup study.

f

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the lower end of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be an important benefit.

g

Subgroup analysis based on age showed lower All-cause mortality in both age groups with HR of cardiovascular outcomes in patients <75 years of 0.84 (0.49-1.44) for intensive treatment vs standard treatment and in patients ≥75 years of 0.64 (0.43-0.96) for intensive treatment vs standard treatment. However, this analysis is a subgroup analysis of the SPRINT CKD which is a subgroup study of the SPRINT trial.

h

Subgroup analysis based on gender showed lower All-cause mortality in both men and women with HR of cardiovascular events in women 0.73 (0.41-1.31) for intensive treatment vs standard treatment and in men 0.71 (0.48-1.03) for intensive treatment vs standard treatment. However, this analysis is a subgroup analysis of the SPRINT CKD which is a subgroup study of the SPRINT trial.

i

Subgroup analysis based on ethnicity showed HR of All-cause mortality in black patients of 1.26 (0.60-2.68) and in nonblack patients of 0.63 (0.44-0.90) for intensive treatment vs standard treatment. However, this analysis is a subgroup analysis of the SPRINT CKD which is a subgroup study of the SPRINT trial.

j

Subgroup analysis based on albuminuria showed that the HR of All-cause mortality in patients with ACR ≤ median was 0.98 (0.54-1.77) for intensive vs standard treatment and in patients with ACR > median the HR of All-cause mortality was 0.66 (0.45-0.97) for intensive vs standard treatment. However, this analysis is a subgroup analysis of the SPRINT CKD which is a subgroup study of the SPRINT trial..

k

The confidence interval almost crosses the line of no effect, and suggests that the difference could be importantly less, or no effect.

l

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the upper end of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be an important harm.

m

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the upper and lower end of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be an important harm and benefit.

n

Rating the certainty that there is no important effect (using a threshold of 10 per 1000 patients), the lower end of the 95% CI crossed this threshold, suggesting that there may be an important benefit.

o

The confidence interval crosses the line of no effect, and suggests that the difference could be importantly less, or importantly more.

p

The confidence interval almost crosses the line of no effect, and suggests that the difference could be importantly more, or no effect.

Evidence to decision for PICO question 9

Values and preferences

Risso, 2015(7): From a patient perspective, HTN is often a silent disease and patients may not take antihypertensive medications as directed because their positive effects are not as obvious as potential side-effects from the medications.

Resources required

No research evidence.

Cost effectiveness

Richman and colleagues(9) conducted a trial-based economic evaluation incorporating the effect estimates for treatment effects and adverse event rates from the SPRINT trial in a Markov model. They compared intensive BP management (SBP <120 mmHg) with standard (SBP<140 mmHg) among 68-year-old high-risk adults with HTN but not diabetes. Model inputs were obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Life Table: Projected age- and cause-specific mortality, calibrated to rates reported in SPRINT. Population-based observational data was used for heart failure, MI, stroke and subsequent mortality. Utilities were obtained based on EQ-5D scores from a nationally representative sample. Costs were based on published sources. The base case ICER was USD 23 777 per QALY. The results were robust, ICERs with sensitivity analyses changing parameter inputs several-fold were <USD 50 000.

Howard and colleagues(10) constructed a cost-effectiveness study of screening and optimal management of HTN and diabetes and chronic kidney disease in an Australian setting. They found that an intensive management of HTN of previously uncontrolled HTN compared with usual care resulted in an ICER of AUD 2588. They do not specify the target BP for the comparisons.

Equity

Meiqari, 2019(11): Many barriers in access to HTN care in low-income settings are low patient health literacy; overburdened health care providers; the lack of an organizational structure to accommodate a nonphysician as a primary care provider; the lack of confidence and/or policy towards the nonphysician providers’ ability to manage uncomplicated and stable patients; the lack of infrastructure for data collection and monitoring of clinical information on a periodic basis as a more intensive target seems to requires more data collection and monitoring; and finally, limited resources.

Acceptability

Shahaj, 2019(12): Deliberately choosing to avoid or reduce medication (intentional nonadherence), rather than forgetfulness, was a theme in some studies. For some patients, symptoms acted as a guide to the seriousness of their HTN and guided their medication use; for example, they stopped treatment if symptoms disappeared. Some were guided by stress, using medication to manage worry or anxiety rather than HTN. Fear of dependency affected the amount of medication they took.

Feasibility

Risso, 2015(7): The guidelines envisage that all clinics should manage patients with HTN, with staff undergoing specific training in screening and HTN management. BP is not routinely checked during attendance at primary care clinics for other problems, contrary to national guidelines; however some doctors do measure BP in all patients visiting the clinics.

Brook, 2011: Busy primary care physicians often fail to ask about adherence and frequently do not adjust medications for uncontrolled patients.

Outcome utilities

Please refer to Table 91 below.

Table 91Utilities per outcome for PICO question 10

OutcomesUtilitySystematic reviewPrimary studies reported in the SR
Hypertension 0.96Ren 2020(14)Li 2015(15)
0.98 (range: 1 – 0.95)Kawalec 2015(16)Burstrom 2001(17), Sullivan 2008(18), Wang 2008(19)
Type 2 diabetes mellitus 0.985Gad 2020(20)Salomon 2012(21)
MACE Time NR: All CVD excluding stroke: 0.73 (95%CI: 0.69–0.76)Kawalec 2015(16)Lunde, 2013(22)
Stroke First month after onset: 0.55Ren 2020(14)Li 2015(15)
Days 1-3: 0.70Gu 2015(8)Salomon 2012(21)
Days 4-28: 0.88Gu 2015(8)Salomon 2012(21)
Chronic state: 0.65Ren 2020(14)Huang 2017(23)
Time NR: 0.70 (95%CI: 0.67-0.73)Kawalec 2015(16)Golicki 2010(24)
MI First month after onset: 0.60Ren 2020(14)Li 2015(15)
Days 1-3: 0.58Gu 2015(8)Salomon 2012(21)
Days 4-28: 0.94Gu 2015(8)Salomon 2012(21)
Chronic state: 0.70Ren 2020(14)Huang 2017(23)
Time NR: Disability weight 0.124Gad 2020(20)Salomon 2012(21)
ESRD ESRD pre-dialysis: 0.73 (95% CI: 0.62–1)Cooper 2020(25)Jesky 2016(26)
Hemodialysis: 0.75 (SD: 0.25)Cooper 2020(25)Briggs 2016(27)
Cognitive impairment/dementia Patient rating: 0.85 (SD: 0.19)NARowen 2015(28)

Patient rating:

mild dementia 0.79 (SD: 0.22)

moderate dementia: 0.72 (0.23)

NAOrgeta 2015(29)

Carer rating:

mild dementia 0.63 (SD: 0.27)

moderate dementia: 0.52 (0.27)

NAOrgeta 2015(29)
HF events First month after onset: 0.63Ren 2020(14)Li 2015(15)
Chronic state: 0.73Ren 2020(14)Huang 2017(23)
Time NR: 0.79Gad 2020(20)Salomon 2012(21)
Adverse events Common: 0.88Gu 2015(8)Clinical Judgement
Infrequent: 0.70Gu 2015(8)Salomon 2012(21)

PICO question 10: In adults with hypertension given pharmacological treatment, when should blood pressure be reassessed?

Systematic review for desirable and undesirable effects

Evidence was considered in respect of the following components (Table 92) to determine when adults with hypertension given pharmacological treatment should have their blood pressure (BP) reassessed (Table 93, Table 94).

Table 92Components for PICO question 10

PopulationInterventionComparisonOutcomeSubgroup
Adult men and women with hypertension receiving a pharmacological intervention. Specific intervalAlternative interval
-

death (all-cause mortality)

-

cardiovascular death (death from MI, sudden cardiac death or stroke)

-

stroke

-

myocardial infarction

-

end stage kidney disease

-

heart failure events

-

adverse effects

-

blood pressure control

-

adherence

-

patient satisfaction

-

titration phase vs controlled HTN follow up

-

level of initial blood pressure

-

other conditions

-

remote monitoring vs clinical visit

Table 93Evidence profile 10a: A 3-month interval compared to a 6 month interval for reassessment of patients with hypertension receiving pharmacological treatment

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerations3-month interval6-month intervalRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Systolic BP measured by family doctors (follow up: 12 months; assessed with: Birtwhistle, 2004(106))
1randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousbnone300302

MD 0.05 mmHg lower

(2.04 lower to 1.94 higher)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Systolic BP measured by family doctors (follow up: 18 months; assessed with: Birtwhistle, 2004(106))
1randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousbnone c c

MD 0.74 mmHg lower

(2.54 lower to 1.05 higher)d

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Systolic BP measured by family doctors (follow up: 24 months; assessed with: Birtwhistle, 2004(106))
1randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousbnone298297

MD 1.17 mmHg lower

(3.61 lower to 1.27 higher)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Systolic BP measured by family doctors (follow up: 36 months; assessed with: Birtwhistle, 2004(106))
1randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousbnone294289

MD 0.98 mmHg lower

(3.5 lower to 1.55 higher)e

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Diastolic BP measured by family doctors (follow up: 12 months; assessed with: Birtwhistle, 2004(106))
1randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousbnone300302

MD 0.01 mmHg higher

(1.21 lower to 1.29 higher)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Diastolic BP measured by family doctors (follow up: 18 months; assessed with: Birtwhistle, 2004(106))
1randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousbnone c c

MD 0.71 mmHg higher

(0.26 lower to 1.68 higher)f

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Diastolic BP measured by family doctors (follow up: 24 months; assessed with: Birtwhistle, 2004(106))
1randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousbnone298297

MD 0.22 mmHg lower

(1.59 lower to 1.14 higher)

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

Diastolic BP measured by family doctors (follow up: 36 months; assessed with: Birtwhistle, 2004(106))
1randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousbnone294289

MD 1.11 mmHg higher

(0.21 lower to 2.44 higher)g

⨁⨁⨁◯

MODERATE

BP out of control as judged by doctor (follow up: 12 months; assessed with: Birtwhistle, 2004(106))
1randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousserioushnone63/302 (20.9%)52/300 (17.3%)

RR 1.20

(0.86 to 1.68)

35 more per 1,000

(from 24 fewer to 118 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

BP out of control as judged by doctor (follow up: 24 months; assessed with: Birtwhistle, 2004(106))
1randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousseriousinone59/299 (19.7%)67/291 (23.0%)

RR 0.83

(0.61 to 1.14)

39 fewer per 1,000

(from 90 fewer to 32 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

BP out of control as judged by doctor (follow up: 36 months; assessed with: Birtwhistle, 2004(106))
1randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousseriousjnone50/275 (18.2%)41/260 (15.8%)

RR 1.15

(0.79 to 1.68)

24 more per 1,000

(from 33 fewer to 107 more)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Patient satisfaction (percentage of general satisfaction with clinical care (follow up: 36; assessed with: Birtwhistle, 2004(106); Scale from: 0 to 100)
1randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousseriousinone260257-

MD 2.69 % lower

(5.76 lower to 0.38 higher)k

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Adherence (as reported by the patient: proportion who report forgetting to take their pills) (follow up: 36 months; assessed with: Birtwhistle, 2004(106))
1randomized trialsseriousanot seriousnot seriousseriousjnone78/263 (29.7%)71/263 (27.0%)

RR 1.10

(0.84 to 1.44)

27 more per 1,000

(from 43 fewer to 119 more)l

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Mortality – not reported
Cardiovascular mortality – not reported
Stroke – not reported
Myocardial infarction – not reported
End-stage kidney disease – not reported
Heart failure – not reported
Serious adverse events – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; MD: Mean difference; RR: Risk ratio

Explanations

a

There is no description of allocation concealment. The trial could not be blinded due to the nature of the intervention. This may have increase the risk of performance bias.

b

Rating the certainty that there is no important difference, the CI does not suggest the possibility of important benefit or important harm. It is important to note that these are 90% CIs.

c

Not reported per group, 494 in total.

d

Very similar results when measured by nurses, the MD was −1.64 (90% CI, −3.49 to 0.21).

e

Very similar results when measured by nurses, the MD was −2.35 (90% CI, −4.84 to 0.15).

f

Very similar results when measured by nurses, the MD was 0.60 (90% CI, −0.61 to 1.82).

g

Very similar results when measured by nurses, the MD was 0.25 (90% CI, −1.61 to 2.11).

h

The 95% CI suggests the possibility of important benefit and important harm.

i

The 95% CI suggests the possibility of important benefit and trivial harm.

j

The 95% CI suggest the possibility of some benefit and important harm.

k

The researchers also measured different aspects of satisfaction with general care and with the doctor. Almost all CIs cross the threshold of null effect.

l

The researchers also measured adherence by asking the patients to answer whether they were “careless at times about taking your medicine”, whether they “sometimes stop taking your medicine”, and whether “if you feel worse when you take the medicine, do you stop taking it”. The results were similar, with no important differences between the proportion of patients.

Table 94Evidence profile 10b: An approximately 3-month interval compared to an approximately 1 month interval for reassessments of patients with hypertension receiving pharmacological treatment

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsApproximately 1 month-intervalApproximately 3-month intervalRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Mortality (follow up: mean 37.4 months; assessed with: Xu, 2015(107))
1observational studiesnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone-/14 747a-/16 092

RR 1.21

(1.13 to 1.30)b

0 fewer per 1,000

(from 0 fewer to 0 fewer)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Cardiovascular event or death (not defined) (follow up: mean 37.4 months; assessed with: Xu, 2015(107))
1observational studiesnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone-/17 525a-/17 524a

RR 1.18

(1.11 to 1.25)b

0 fewer per 1,000

(from 0 fewer to 0 fewer)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Cardiovascular mortality – not reported
Stroke – not reported
Myocardial infarction – not reported
Heart failure – not reported
End-stage kidney disease – not reported
Adverse events – not reported
BP – not reported
Adherence – not reported
Patient satisfaction – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio

Explanations

a

The number of events in the group was not reported.

b

The CIs of the comparison between 1 month and less than 1 month, 1 to 1.5 month, and 1.5 to 2.7 months overlap. The CI of the comparison between 1.5 to 2.7 and > 2.7 month overlap.

Evidence to decision for PICO question 10

Values and preferences

No research evidence

Resources required

No research evidence

Cost effectiveness

No research evidence

Equity

Meiqari, 2019(11): Many barriers to accessing HTN care in low-income settings are low patient health literacy; overburdened health care providers; the lack of an organizational structure to accommodate a nonphysician as a primary care provider; the lack of confidence and/or policy towards the nonphysician providers’ ability to manage uncomplicated and stable patients; the lack of infrastructure for data collection and monitoring of clinical information on a periodic basis; and finally, limited resources.

Acceptability

Walker, 2019(108): More frequent monitoring increased patients’ sense of safety in remaining independent at home, particularly for those living alone and older adults. Patients became less fearful of being alone, or not picking up an important clinical sign that there condition may be deteriorating.

Risso, 2015(7): Very few asymptomatic patients ask for their BP to be checked, with one Medical Officer noting: “Rarely people came in just to have their BP checked [without symptoms], because they think they are still young so why they need to have a health check-up?” At one clinic only half those scheduled to attend actually did so, most of whom had another condition, such as diabetes. Another factor, noted in many settings, is that “from a patient perspective, hypertension is often a silent disease and patients may not take antihypertensive medications as directed because their positive effects are not as obvious as potential side effects from the medications”.

Gwadry, 2013(93): One study found a decrease in adherence with an increase in time between intervention and follow-up, emphasizing the importance of interventions to promote sustainable behaviour change.

Feasibility

Russo, 2015: In the public sector, a nurse will take the patient’s BP readings and any other tests required, which are then followed up by the Medical Officer as the nurse is not allowed to prescribe medications. However, physicians reported seeing 10 or more patients per hour, or 100 in a day, leaving inadequate time for meaningful interaction: “Many of healthcare providers [are] not able to sit down and have counselling session regarding their medications with their patients” (KI).

Risso, 2015(7): Commonly, the Medical Officer will just “tell the patient to continue medication, sometimes without physical examination” (HP); they report having little time to talk with patients, and they simply “take their [the patient’s] word” as to whether they are adhering to medication and modifying their lifestyle as the doctors have insufficient time to engage with them to ensure a shared understanding. In the public sector, a nurse will take the patient’s BP readings and any other tests required, which are then followed up by the Medical Officer as the nurse is not allowed to prescribe medications. However, physicians reported seeing 10 or more patients per hour, or 100 in a day, leaving inadequate time for meaningful interaction: “Many of healthcare providers [are] not able to sit down and have counselling session regarding their medications with their patients”.

Jaana, 2007(109): Despite existing evidence on the effectiveness of telemonitoring for patients experiencing hypertension, there is no empirical evidence of its potential success over longer periods of time as well as its generalizability to patients with various backgrounds and educational levels who might react differently to this approach, though several studies identified potential savings and a reduction in the number of visits to healthcare providers.

Brook, 2011(110): Busy primary care physicians often fail to ask about adherence and frequently do not adjust medications for uncontrolled patients.

Outcome utilities

Please refer to Table 95 below.

Table 95Utilities per outcome for PICO question 10

OutcomesUtilitySystematic reviewPrimary studies reported in the SR
Hypertension 0.96Ren 2020(14)Li 2015(15)
0.98 (range: 1 – 0.95)Kawalec 2015(16)Burstrom 2001(17), Sullivan 2008(18), Wang 2008(19)
Type 2 diabetes mellitus 0.985Gad 2020(20)Salomon 2012(21)
MACE Time NR: All CVD excluding stroke: 0.73 (95%CI: 0.69–0.76)Kawalec 2015(16)Lunde, 2013(22)
Stroke First month after onset: 0.55Ren 2020(14)Li 2015(15)
Days 1-3: 0.70Gu 2015(8)Salomon 2012(21)
Days 4-28: 0.88Gu 2015(8)Salomon 2012(21)
Chronic state: 0.65Ren 2020(14)Huang 2017(23)
Time NR: 0.70 (95%CI: 0.67-0.73)Kawalec 2015(16)Golicki 2010(24)
MI First month after onset: 0.60Ren 2020(14)Li 2015(15)
Days 1-3: 0.58Gu 2015(8)Salomon 2012(21)
Days 4-28: 0.94Gu 2015(8)Salomon 2012(21)
Chronic state: 0.70Ren 2020(14)Huang 2017(23)
Time NR: Disability weight 0.124Gad 2020(20)Salomon 2012(21)
ESRD ESRD pre-dialysis: 0.73 (95% CI: 0.62–1)Cooper 2020(25)Jesky 2016(26)
Hemodialysis: 0.75 (SD: 0.25)Cooper 2020(25)Briggs 2016(27)
Cognitive impairment/dementia Patient rating: 0.85 (SD: 0.19)NARowen 2015(28)

Patient rating:

mild dementia 0.79 (SD: 0.22)

moderate dementia: 0.72 (0.23)

NAOrgeta 2015(29)

Carer rating:

mild dementia 0.63 (SD: 0.27)

moderate dementia: 0.52 (0.27)

NAOrgeta 2015(29)
HF events First month after onset: 0.63Ren 2020(14)Li 2015(15)
Chronic state: 0.73Ren 2020(14)Huang 2017(23)
Time NR: 0.79Gad 2020(20)Salomon 2012(21)
Adverse events Common: 0.88Gu 2015(8)Clinical Judgement
Infrequent: 0.70Gu 2015(8)Salomon 2012(21)

PICO question 11: Can pharmacological management of hypertension be provided by nonphysician care providers?

Systematic review for desirable and undesirable effects

Evidence was considered in respect of the following components (Table 96) to determine whether pharmacological management of hypertension can be provided by nonphysician care providers (Table 97Table 103).

Table 96Components for PICO question 11

PopulationInterventionComparisonOutcomeSubgroups
Adult men and women Pharmacological management by non-physician care pPharmacological management by medically qualified practitioners (doctors)
-

death (all-cause mortality)

-

cardiovascular death (death from MI, sudden cardiac death or stroke)

-

stroke

-

myocardial infarction

-

end stage kidney disease

-

heart failure events

-

blood pressure control

-

adherence

-

serious adverse effects

-

patient satisfaction

-

initiation vs follow up

-

self-care vs community HCW vs nurse vs pharmacist vs physician assistants vs in or out of clinic

-

levels of care

-

rural vs urban settings

-

ethnicity

Table 97Evidence profile 11a: Pharmacological management by a pharmacist compared to usual care in patients with hypertension

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsPharmacological management by pharmacistUsual careRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
BP control (BP goal attainment 140/90 mmHg) (assessed with: Greer, 2016(111))
7randomized trialsvery seriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone532/973 (54.7%)383/1014 (37.8%)

RR 1.45

(1.24 to 1.70)b

170 more per 1,000

(from 91 more to 264 more)c

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Clinical events (definition not provided) (assessed with: Greer, 2016(111))
6randomized trialsvery seriousdnot seriousenot seriousnot seriousenoneBased on 2236 participants, the authors report that pharmacist-led care led to similar numbers of clinical events than usual care. They do not report the numbers.

⨁⨁◯◯

LOWf

Health-related quality of life (assessed with: Greer, 2016(111))
7randomized trialsvery seriousgnot seriousenot seriousnot seriousenoneBased on 2031 participants, the authors report that pharmacist-led care led to similar health-related quality of life. They do not report the numbers.

⨁⨁◯◯

LOWf

Patient satisfaction (assessed with: Greer, 2016(111))
7randomized trialsvery serioushseriousiseriousjnot seriousenoneBased on 1519 participants, the authors say that there were “mixed results”. They do not provide any more details.

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOWf

Adherence (defined as poor or less than perfect adherence) (assessed with: Greer, 2016(111))
randomized trialsvery serioushnot seriousnot seriousnot seriousenoneThe authors reported that poor or less than perfect adherence to the prescribed regimen was “generally similar between groups”. They do not provide any other details, including the number of studies and patients providing information.

⨁⨁◯◯

LOWf

Adherence (defined as the extent to which medication taking behaviour is consistent with health care provider recommendations) (assessed with: Conn 2015(112))
randomized trialsnot seriousnot seriousevery seriousknot seriousenoneThe authors determined if the effect of interventions to imporve adherence differed when the intervention was delivered by a pharmacist (change in adherence, SMD, 0.369) or a physician (SMD, 0.356). There were no statistical differences between the two. The authors do not provide details about the trials or participants providing information.l,m

⨁⨁◯◯

LOWf

Adherence (medication adherence) (assessed with: Reeves, 2020(113))
20randomized trialsvery seriousnseriousonot seriousnot seriousenoneThe authors describe that 9/20 trials showed a statistically significant improvement in medication adherence in patients receiving additional pharmaceutical care, and that 4 suggested non-statistically significant improvement.

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOWf

Mortality – not reported
Cardiovascular mortality – not reported
Stroke – not reported
Myocardial infarction – not reported
End-stage kidney disease – not reported
Heart failure – not reported
Serious adverse events – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio

Explanations

a

Only one of the studies was judged at low risk of bias.

b

A systematic review (Morrisey, 2017(114)) explored whether there were differences in BP when interventions for improving adherence were delivered by pharmacists, nurses, or physicians. They report that neither of them, nor the three combined made a difference.

c

A systematic review of studies from low- and middle-income countries (Anand, 2019) found that task sharing with pharmacists results in a higher reduction in SBP (MD, −8.12 mmHg’ 95% CI, −10.23 to −6.01) and DBP (−3.74 mmHg; 95% CI, −5.15 to −3.32) when compared to not doing it. This effect was not importantly different than the effect of sharing with dieticians, nurses, or community health workers.

d

The authors report that one RCT had high RoB and the other five had medium RoB.

e

The authors do not provide enough information for this assessment.

f

The reporting quality of the systematic review is suboptimal (lack of description of trials that reported the outcomes, lack of description of relative and absolute numbers, no forest plots, etc), and did not allow making confident assessments of the certainty of the evidence.

g

The authors report that one study had low RoB, five had medium RoB, and one had high RoB.

h

The authors do not provide details but based on the other outcomes, it is likely that there are serious concerns.

i

The authors qualify the results across studies as “mixed”.

j

The authors mention that five studies compared the intervention to usual care, but do not provide details for the other two studies.

k

The comparison was done between, not within studies.

l

Another review (Ruppar, 2017(115)) explored the same question in black people (as described by the review authors). They found the effect to be SMD, 0.52 (95% CI, 0.15 to 0.90) when the intervention was delivered by a pharmacist vs not, and SMD, 0.22 (95% CI, −0.05 to 0.48) when it was delivered by a physician vs not. There are no statistical differences between these.

m

Another review (Xu, 2018(116)) explored the same question in Chinese population. They found the effect to be SMD, 195 (95% CI 0.94 to 2.95) when the intervention was delivered by a pharmacist vs not, and SMD, 2.80 (95% CI 1.71 to 3.88) when it was delivered by a physician vs not. There are no statistical differences between these.

n

None of the trials was judged at low risk of bias.

o

According to the narrative description provided by the authors, it seems like there is serious inconsistency.

Table 98Evidence profile 11b: Pharmacological management by a nurse compared to usual care in patients with hypertension

Certainty assessmentImpactCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerations
Systolic BP (assessed with: Morrisey, 2017(114))
3randomized trialsvery seriousanot seriousvery seriousbnot seriouscnoneIn a systematic review about the effect of interventions to enhance medication adherence, a subgroup analysis showed that involvement of nurses was not statistically significantly associated with SBP. The authors do not provide details about specific effect, only a p-value for the comparison between involvement of nurses, pharmacists, and physicians

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOWd

Adherence (no definition provided) (assessed with: Georgiopoulos, 2018(117))
10randomized trialsnot seriouscnot seriousvery seriousenot seriouscnoneThe authors describe that from the 10 studies included, 7 reported improvement in medication adherence after the implementation of a nursing intervention. They do not provide any details about the number of participants.

⨁⨁◯◯

LOWd

Adherence (no definition provided) (assessed with: Ruppar, 2017(115) and Xu, 2018(116))
randomized trialsnot seriouscnot seriousvery seriousbnot seriouscnoneTwo systematic reviews examined differences in the effect of interventions to improve adherence to medication. Analyses showed that, among black people (as labelled by the review authors), the SMD was 0.45 (95% CI, 0.24 to 0.65) when the intervention was delivered by a nurse versus not, and 0.22 (95% −0.05 to 0.48) when the intervention was delivered by a physician versus not (Morrisey, 2017). Another review showed similar results in studies conducted in Chinese population (SMD for nurse vs not, 1.80 [95% CI, 0.92 to 2.65], SMD for physician vs not 2.80 [95% CI 1.71 to 3.88]) (Xu, 2018)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOWd

All-cause mortality – not reported
Cardiovascular mortality – not reported
Stroke – not reported
Myocardial infarction – not reported
End-stage kidney disease – not reported
Heart failure – not reported
Serious adverse events – not reported
Patient satisfaction – not reported

CI: Confidence interval

Explanations

a

Although there are not details about which trials provided this information, none of the trials included in this systematic review was judged at low risk of bias.

b

This is a between-study comparison.

c

The authors do not provide information to assess this domain.

d

Due to the poor reporting quality of the systematic review, we did not have the elements necessary to make an optimal assessment of the certainty of the evidence.

e

The authors do not specify the definition for adherence, nor provide details about the populations, interventions, and outcomes. We are very uncertain about the applicability of these results.

Table 99Evidence profile 11c: Self-management (self-monitoring) compared to usual care in patients with hypertension

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsSelf-management (self-monitoring)Usual careRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Systolic BP (follow up: 12 months; assessed with: Tucker, 2017(118))*
15randomized trialsseriousaseriousbnot seriousnot seriousnone34932807

MD 3.24 mmHg lower

(4.92 lower to 1.57 lower)c,d

⨁⨁◯◯

LOWe

Diastolic BP (follow up: 12 months; assessed with: Tucker, 2017(118))*
15randomized trialsseriousaseriousbnot seriousnot seriousnone34932807

MD 1.5 mmHg lower

(2.24 lower to 0.75 lower)d,f

⨁⨁◯◯

LOWe

Uncontrolled BP (BP above target) (follow up: 12 months; assessed with: Tucker, 2017(118))*
15randomized trialsseriousaseriousbnot seriousnot seriousnone-/3493-/2807

RR 0.70

(0.56 to 0.86)g

0 fewer per 1,000

(from 0 fewer to 0 fewer)d,h

⨁⨁◯◯

LOWe

Adherence (percentage) (follow up: median 6 months; assessed with: Fletcher, 2015(119); Scale from: 0 to 1)
13randomized trialsvery seriousinot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone915894

MD 21 % higher

(8 higher to 34 higher)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Mortality (assessed with: Reboussin, 2018(120))
4randomized trialsnot seriousjnot seriousnot seriousvery seriousknoneA systematic review reports that 4 studies addressed mortality, and that none of them “reported a significant difference”. They do not provide any more details.

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Cardiovascular mortality – not reported
Stroke – not reported
Myocardial infarction – not reported
End-stage kidney disease – not reported
Heart failure – not reported
Serious adverse events – not reported
Patient satisfaction – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; MD: Mean difference; RR: Risk ratio

Explanations

a

Although the authors describe that the trials were at low risk of bias, due to the nature of the intervention it was not possible to blind participants, which increases the risk of performance bias.

b

There is statistically significant heterogeneity between subgroups.

c

The authors conducted a subgroup analysis to explore different co-interventions. The MD obtained with self-monitoring with no feedback was −1.02 mmHg (95% CI, −3.27 to 1.23); whereas for all other subgroups the CI did not cross the null effect threshold (web/phone feedback: MD, −1.98; 95% CI, −3.74 to −0.21; web/phone feedback + education: MD, −4.42 mmHg; 95% CI, −7.11 to −1.73; counselling/tele counselling: MD, −6.10; 95% CI, −9.02 to −3.18).

d

The differences in the presence and magnitude of the effect suggest that self-management probably has an effect (or not) when complemented with other interventions.

e

The certainty of the evidence is moderate within each subgroup, as there are no serious inconsistency concerns.

f

The authors conducted a subgroup analysis to explore different co-interventions. The MD obtained with self-monitoring with no feedback was −1.10 mmHg (95% CI, −2.39 to 0.19), and for web/phone feedback it was −0.46 (95% CI, −1.47 to 0.56); whereas for the other subgroups the CI did not cross the null effect threshold (web/phone feedback + education: MD, −1.91 mmHg; 95% CI, −2.87 to −0.94; counselling/tele counselling: MD, −2.32; 95% CI, −4.04 to −0.59).

g

The authors conducted a subgroup analysis to explore different co-interventions. The RR obtained with self-monitoring with no feedback was 0.99 (95% CI, 0.72 to 1.37), and for web/phone feedback it was 0.90 (95% CI, 0.69 to 1.15); whereas for all other subgroups the CI did not cross the null effect threshold (web/phone feedback + education: RR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.44 to 0.73; counselling/tele counselling: RR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.56 to 0.86).

h

Number of patients experiencing the event is not reported, and thus this cannot be calculated.

i

Most of the studies were judged to have more than 1 domain at high risk of bias.

j

The authors do not provide sufficient information to make this assessment.

k

The authors describe that the number of events was small, and the “overall risk ratio was not different from 1.0”.

*

A newer version of this systematic review was published recently Sheppard 2019(121) and its results are consistent with what was reported in this table.

Table 100Evidence profile 11d: Pharmacological management by a pharmacist compared to usual care in patients with hypertension in low- and middle-income countries

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsPharmacological management by pharmacistUsual careRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Systolic BP (change) (assessed with: Anand, 2019(122))
6randomized trialsvery seriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone522491

MD 8.12 mmHg lower

(10.23 lower to 6.01 lower)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Diastolic BP (change) (assessed with: Anand, 2019(122))
6randomized trialsvery seriousanot seriousbnot seriousnot seriousnone522491

MD 3.74 mmHg lower

(5.15 lower to 2.32 lower)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Mortality – not reported
Cardiovascular mortality – not reported
Stroke – not reported
Myocardial infarction – not reported
End-stage kidney disease – not reported
Heart failure – not reported
Adherence – not reported
Serious adverse events – not reported
Patient satisfaction – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; MD: Mean difference

Explanations

a

All included studies were judged at high risk of bias.

b

Although the statistical heterogeneity is high, all studies showed the same direction of effect, and only one study suggested a higher magnitude.

Table 101Evidence profile 11e: Pharmacological management by a nurse compared to usual care in patients with hypertension in low- and middle-income countries

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsPharmacological management by nurseUsual careRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Systolic BP (change) (assessed with: Anand, 2019(122))
11randomized trialsvery seriousanot seriousbnot seriousnot seriousnone975979-

MD 5.34 mmHg lower

(9 lower to 1.67 lower)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Diastolic BP (change) (assessed with: Anand, 2019(122))
9randomized trialsvery seriousaseriouscnot seriousnot seriousnone790788-

MD 3.18 mmHg lower

(6.36 lower to 0.01 lower)

⨁◯◯◯

VERY LOW

Mortality – not reported
Cardiovascular mortality – not reported
Stroke – not reported
Myocardial infarction – not reported
End-stage kidney disease – not reported
Heart failure – not reported
Adherence – not reported
Serious adverse events – not reported
––
Patient satisfaction – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; MD: Mean difference

Explanations

a

All included trials were judged at high risk of bias.

b

Although there is high statistical heterogeneity, all studies are consistent in the direction of the effect.

c

There is high statistical heterogeneity, some studies suggest a different magnitude and direction of effect, and not all confidence intervals overlap.

Table 102Evidence profile 11f: Pharmacological management by a dietitian compared to usual care in patients with hypertension in low- and middle-income countries

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsPharmacological management by dietitianUsual careRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Systolic BP (assessed with: Anand, 2019(122))
4randomized trialsvery seriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone689671-

MD 4.67 mmHg lower

(7.09 lower to 2.24 lower)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Diastolic BP (assessed with: Anand, 2019(122))
4randomized trialsvery seriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone689671-

MD 3.3 mmHg lower

(4.69 lower to 1.92 lower)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Mortality – not reported
Cardiovascular mortality – not reported
Stroke – not reported
Myocardial infarction – not reported
End-stage kidney disease – not reported
Heart failure – not reported
Adherence – not reported
Serious adverse events – not reported
Patient satisfaction – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; MD: Mean difference

Explanations

a

All included studies were judged at high risk of bias.

Table 103Evidence profile 11g: Pharmacological management by a community health worker compared to usual care in patients with hypertension in low- and middle-income countries

Certainty assessment№ of patientsEffectCertaintyImportance
№ of studiesStudy designRisk of biasInconsistencyIndirectnessImprecisionOther considerationsPharmacological management by a community health workerUsual careRelative (95% CI)Absolute (95% CI)
Systolic BP (change) (assessed with: Anand, 2019(122))
11randomized trialsvery seriousanot seriousnot seriousnot seriousnone47124450-

MD 3.67 mmHg lower

(4.58 lower to 2.77 lower)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Diastolic BP (change) (assessed with: Anand, 2019(122))
10randomized trialsvery seriousanot seriousbnot seriousnot seriousnone36173459-

MD 2.29 mmHg lower

(3.31 lower to 1.27 lower)

⨁⨁◯◯

LOW

Mortality – not reported
Cardiovascular mortality – not reported
Stroke – not reported
Myocardial infarction – not reported
End-stage kidney disease – not reported
Heart failure – not reported
Adherence – not reported
Serious adverse events – not reported
Patient satisfaction – not reported

CI: Confidence interval; MD: Mean difference

Explanations

a

All included studies were judged at high risk of bias.

b

Although there is high statistical heterogeneity, most of the studies agree with the direction of the effect and their confidence intervals overlap.

Evidence to decision for PICO question 11

Values and preferences

No research evidence

Resources required

Fu, 2020(123): Different elements are required to perform high-quality home BP monitoring (HBPM). They include access to accurate BP monitors, skills, and knowledge to perform HBPM, motivation to perform HBPM regularly, and accurate reflection of HBPM readings to their health care providers. Patients may not have the hardware, skill, and knowledge to implement successful HBPM. They need health care providers’ instruction and feedback to practise HBPM independently. Their skills and BP records should be reviewed regularly in order to ensure their compliance with HBPM protocol, such as measurement preparation, procedure, and how to record BP readings. In a busy primary care practice, time constraints may preclude physicians from taking time to educate HBPM and review patients’ home BP records.

Walker, 2020(108): Participants in programmes in which remote monitoring was initially provided at no cost to the patient voiced concern about the introduction of ongoing expenses and servicing costs after an initial period. Two studies in Taiwan and one in Australia found patients concerned that they would not be able afford the on-going costs of remote monitoring.

Beyhaghi, 2019(124): To date, ambulatory BP monitoring (ABPM) has not been widely used in clinical practice in the United States, partly because the costs of this diagnostic strategy were often not reimbursable by healthcare payers.

Jamshidnezhad, 2019(125): Mobile phones have become an appropriate opportunity for self-care purposes due to their adaptability to different communities and their interactive nature. The use of smartphones is increasing due to the global trend of lower prices for these devices. Reports suggest that smartphones and tablets have become the most popular and widely used type of mobile phones. At the present time, out of 6 billion phone subscriptions in the world, only 17% are non-smartphones

Markez, 2006(126): It would be easy to apply in practice because the introduction of monitors among hypertensive patients has already started, being taken up spontaneously, without having to be encouraged by health professionals. The principal problem is its high cost.

Cost effectiveness

Based on a systematic review of the literature that included 31 studies, Jacob and colleagues(127) report the results of cost effectiveness of team-based interventions to improve BP outcomes. When necessary, they converted intervention costs per unit reduction in SBP to lifetime intervention cost per QALY using published algorithms (QALY/mmHg of 0.093 and 0.009 in two references). They conclude that team-based care to improve BP control were cost effective with 10 studies showing a $/QALY of less than $50,000. They did not conduct a quality assessment of included studies.

Kulchatanaroaj and colleagues(128) constructed a Markov model with a six-month cycle length and a lifetime time horizon comparing pharmacist led collaborative intervention and usual care and found the intervention to be cost effective ($26,807.83/QALY). The intervention provided the greatest benefit in the high-risk patients.

Equity

Fu, 2020(123): Under-privileged patients, such as those from lower socioeconomic class, those with lower educational levels, or those with limited health literacy or numeracy, were found to have a poorer outcome in overall noncommunicable diseases. Patients with inadequate health literacy were more likely to have poorer disease knowledge, poorer self-efficacy, and misconception in cardiovascular disease.

Jaana, 2007(109): Despite existing evidence on the effectiveness of telemonitoring for patients experiencing hypertension, there is no empirical evidence of its potential success over longer periods of time as well as its generalizability to patients with various backgrounds and educational levels who might react differently to this approach. However, several studies identified potential savings and a reduction in the number of visits to healthcare providers.

Acceptability

Walker, 2019(108): Patients with chronic conditions reported that remote monitoring enabled increased understanding of their condition. They gained awareness of what their “normal” clinical values and symptoms were, as well as clinically significant changes in signs and symptoms. Collecting clinical data at home enabled some to obtain accurate and frequent measurements of their own health status. Patients felt more frequent data collection at home validated their symptoms and prompted clinicians to take earlier action in response to these data. Patients were more certain of when it was necessary to seek medical attention. Remote monitoring promoted confidence to self-manage, including independently making changes to medication regimens. Patients also felt being able to discuss their monitoring data made them feel empowered and a more equal partner in their care, allowing them to be “better equipped to engage with health care services”. Remote monitoring provided patients with peace of mind and reduced their anxiety and stress.

Walker, 2019(108): Providing management by non-physicians can make patients concerned that their care could become more focused on clinical data rather than personal interaction and this might lead to fewer face-to-face consultations with clinicians. This personal contact was important to patients as it helped to establish trust and allowed for better communication.

Walker, 2019(108): Patients were reluctant to commence remote monitoring because they believed that learning how to use the technology would create an additional burden for them. Older patients, in particular, were concerned that they would be confused by the data and this may consequently rigger additional anxiety. Others feared they would not understand the written instructions and could not safely operate the technology

Zhao, 2019(129): In self-management, patients, along with their family, community, and health care professionals, take greater responsibility for health decisions and actively engage in behaviour that might benefit their disease conditions.

Jamshidnezhad, 2019(125): In similar studies that assessed users’ satisfaction, participants were generally satisfied with the use of applications for self-care.

Gwadry, 2013(93): A significant improvement in medication adherence was found with increasing age and provider visits, and reductions in multiple-dosing regimens and medication classes.

Parati, 2011(130): Study showed very high patients compliance with BP telemonitoring schedules, and a high degree of acceptability of these techniques by both patients and their doctors.

Jaana, 2007(109): Home telemonitoring of hypertension appears to be well accepted by patients and produces positive effects on their attitudes and behaviour, irrespective of their cultural background. In fact, two studies that involved African American patients showed that telemonitoring was associated with a good compliance rate with the transmission of BP data and a significant improvement in disease knowledge. Specifically, Bondmass et al. reported an 88% compliance rate with data transmission at least once a day and a 69% compliance rate with data transmission at least twice a day.

Jaana, 2007(109): In a larger randomized study involving 121 patients, Rogers et al. reported high satisfaction among patients in the telemonitoring group and an increased feeling that physicians had all necessary information for their diagnosis and treatment when using this approach.

Feasibility

Choi, 2020(131): The studies that examined patients’ experiences with the mobile health technologies to support self-management of concurrent diabetes and hypertension reported that the usability and acceptability of the systems were generally high. Findings regarding areas for improvement included connectivity issues between medical devices and mobile terminals, lack of compatibility and interoperability of the system with different mobile operating systems and terminals, lack of integration with health electronic health records, and low visibility of the content due to the small screens of mobile devices.

Jamshidnezhad, 2019(125): Due to old age of people with hypertension and the importance of ease of working with mobile devices and applications, usability issues can play an important role in the effectiveness of an application.

McKoy, 2015(132): Although the following scenarios are not exhaustive, legal risks can arise in telehealth in relation to privacy and security requirements, jurisdictional boundaries, and informed consent. It has been recognized that legal or ethical guidance for health practitioners to safely navigate these circumstances is lacking. Regulatory oversight will focus on those mobile medical apps that are likely to present a risk to patients if they do not work as intended. Although the FDA has taken steps to clarify the regulatory framework applying to mobile health applications (i.e. by stipulating which medical applications they will focus their attention on), a gap may still exist in relation to the multitude of applications that do not fall within those criteria.

Indirect evidence, Gu, 2015(8): While China rapidly expanded health insurance coverage nationally within the past decade, many Chinese adults still have limited access to hypertension screening and follow-up for hypertension treatment and monitoring. For example, in the New Rural Cooperative Medical Scheme, which now covers over 95% of the rural population, most coverage is for inpatient hospitalizations, and the costs of basic medical services, including hypertension education, screening, treatment, and monitoring, are not usually covered.

Indirect evidence, Jamshidnezhad, 2019(125): Self-care in hypertension is directly associated with health literacy and patient education

Cheema, 2014(133): In the National Health Service in the UK, a new contractual framework for community pharmacies was introduced in 2005, with the intention of moving pharmacists towards a more clinical service-oriented role. For example, UK community pharmacies can provide health checks for people aged 40–74 years. Within these health checks, pharmacists can carry out a full vascular risk assessment and provide advice and support to help to reduce the risk of heart disease, strokes, diabetes and obesity.

Outcome utilities

Please refer to Table 104 below.

Table 104Utilities per outcome for PICO question 11

OutcomesUtilitySystematic reviewPrimary studies reported in the SR
Hypertension 0.96Ren 2020(14)Li 2015(15)
0.98 (range: 1 – 0.95)Kawalec 2015(16)Burstrom 2001(17), Sullivan 2008(18), Wang 2008(19)
Type 2 diabetes mellitus 0.985Gad 2020(20)Salomon 2012(21)
MACE Time NR: All CVD excluding stroke: 0.73 (95%CI: 0.69–0.76)Kawalec 2015(16)Lunde, 2013(22)
Stroke First month after onset: 0.55Ren 2020(14)Li 2015(15)
Days 1-3: 0.70Gu 2015(8)Salomon 2012(21)
Days 4-28: 0.88Gu 2015(8)Salomon 2012(21)
Chronic state: 0.65Ren 2020(14)Huang 2017(23)
Time NR: 0.70 (95%CI: 0.67-0.73)Kawalec 2015(16)Golicki 2010(24)
MI First month after onset: 0.60Ren 2020(14)Li 2015(15)
Days 1-3: 0.58Gu 2015(8)Salomon 2012(21)
Days 4-28: 0.94Gu 2015(8)Salomon 2012(21)
Chronic state: 0.70Ren 2020(14)Huang 2017(23)
Time NR: Disability weight 0.124Gad 2020(20)Salomon 2012(21)
ESRD ESRD pre-dialysis: 0.73 (95% CI: 0.62–1)Cooper 2020(25)Jesky 2016(26)
Hemodialysis: 0.75 (SD: 0.25)Cooper 2020(25)Briggs 2016(27)
Cognitive impairment/dementia Patient rating: 0.85 (SD: 0.19)NARowen 2015(28)

Patient rating:

mild dementia 0.79 (SD: 0.22)

moderate dementia: 0.72 (0.23)

NAOrgeta 2015(29)

Carer rating:

mild dementia 0.63 (SD: 0.27)

moderate dementia: 0.52 (0.27)

NAOrgeta 2015(29)
HF events First month after onset: 0.63Ren 2020(14)Li 2015(15)
Chronic state: 0.73Ren 2020(14)Huang 2017(23)
Time NR: 0.79Gad 2020(20)Salomon 2012(21)
Adverse events Common: 0.88Gu 2015(8)Clinical Judgement
Infrequent: 0.70Gu 2015(8)Salomon 2012(21)

AMSTAR table

First author last name1. Components of PICO2. Development of methods a priori3. Clear selection criteria4. Comprehensive literature search strategy5. Study selection in duplicate6. Data extraction in duplicate7. List of excluded studies8. Included studies characteristics9 a, b. Satisfactory RoB assessment10. Source of funding in included studies11. Appropriate statistical combination12 & 13. Potential RoB impact assessment14. Explanation for and discussion of any heterogeneity15. Adequate investigation of publication bias16. Report of conflict of interestQuality
Hong (2018)(1)YesPartial yesYesYesYesYesPartial yesYesYesNoYesYesYesYesYesH
Sundstrom (2015)(2)YesPartial yesYesYesNoNoPartial yesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesM
Brunstrom (2019)(3)YesNoYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesH
Brunstrom (2016)(4)YesYesYesYesYesYesNoYesYesNoYesYesYesYesYesM
Zonneveld (2018)(5)YesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesH
Thomopoulos (2016)(38)YesNoYesYesYesYesNoNoNoNoYesNoYesNoYesCL
Taverny (2016)(45)YesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesH
Parsons (2016)(46)YesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesNoYesH
Van Middelaar (2018)(47)YesYesYesYesYesYesPartial yesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesH
Wright (2018)(49)YesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesH
Xiao (2018)(50)YesYesYesYesYesYesPartial yesYesNoNoYesNoYesYesYesL
Musini (2015)(51)YesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesH
Tully (2016)(52)YesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesH
Ang (2018)(53)YesNoYesYesYesYesPartial yesYesYesNoYesYesYesYesYesM
Kunutsor (2017)(54)YesNoYesYesYesYesPartial yesYesYesNoYesYesYesYesYesM
Dimou (2019)(55)YesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesH
Hussain (2018)(56)YesYesYesYesYesYesPartial yesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesH
Musini (2019)(57)YesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesNoYesH
Wong (2015)(58)YesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesH
Zhang (2020)(59)YesYesYesYesYesYesPartial yesYesYesNoYesYesNoYesYesM
Chen (2018)(60)YesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesH
Xu (2015)(61)YesNoYesYesYesYesPartial yesYesYesNoYesYesYesYesYesM
Wiysonge (2017)(62)YesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesNoYesYesYesNoYesM
Wang (2018)(63)YesNoYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesNoYesNoYesM
Bangalore (2016)(64)YesNoYesYesYesYesNoYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesM
Palla (2017)(65)YesNoNoYesYesYesNoYesYesNoYesYesYesYesYesM
Tran (2017)(66)NoNoYesYesYesYesNoYesYesNoYesYesYesYesYesM
Ohtsubu (2019)(67)YesNoYesYesYesYesNoYesYesNoYesYesYesYesYesM
Lin (2017)(134)YesYesYesYesYesYesPartial yesYesYesNoYesNoYesYesYesM
Jeffers (2017)(70)YesNoYesYesNoNoNoYesYesYesPartial yesNoNoNoYesCL
Garjon (2020)(71)YesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesH
Huang (2016)(73)YesNoYesYesYesYesNoYesYesNoYesYesYesNoYesM
He (2017)(74)YesNoYesYesYesYesNoYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesM
Lu (2017)(76)YesNoYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesH
Cheng (2016)(77)YesNoYesYesYesYesNoYesYesYesYesYesYesNoYesM
Mallat (2016)(97)YesPartial yesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesNoYesYesYesYesYesH
Kawalec (2018)(98)YesPartial yesYesYesYesYesPartial yesYesYesNoYesYesYesYesYesH
Du (2018)(99)YesNoNoYesYesYesPartial yesPartial yesYesNoYesYesYesYesYesM
Arguedas (2020)(101)YesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesH
Murad (2019)(102)YesYesYesYesYesYesNoYesYesNoYesYesYesNoYesM
Garrison (2017)(103)YesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesH
Saiz (2017)(104)YesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesH
Greer (2016)(111)YesYesYesYesYesYesPartial yesYesYesYesYesYesYesNoYesH
Conn (2015)(112)YesNoYesYesYesYesPartial yesNoYesNoYesYesYesYesYesM
Reeves (2021)(113)YesPartial yesYesYesYesYesNoYesYesNoNA*NA*NoNA*YesM
Morrissey (2017)(114)YesYesYesYesYesYesPartial yesYesYesYesYesYesYesNoYesH
Ruppar (2017)(115)YesNoYesYesYesYesPartial yesYesYesYesYesYesYesNoYesH
Xu (2018)(116)YesNoNoYesYesYesNoYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesM
Georgiopoulos (2018)(117)YesNoNoYesYesYesNoYesNoNoNA*NA*NoNoYesCL
Tucker (2017)(118)YesYesYesYesYesYesPartial yesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesH
Fletcher (2015)(119)YesYesYesYesYesYesPartial yesYesYesYesYesYesYesNoYesH
Reboussin (2018)(120)YesPartial yesYesYesYesYesPartial yesYesYesYesYesYesYesNoYesH
Sheppard (2020)(121)YesNoYesYesYesYesNoYesYesNoYesNoYesYesYesL
Anand (2019)(122)YesYesYesYesYesYesPartial yesYesYesYesYesYesYesNoYesH

NA*: No meta-analysis conducted

H: high quality, M: moderate quality, L: low quality, CL: critically low

The following are primary studies, statistical reports, meta-analyses based on individual patient data or non-systematic reviews: Anderson (1994), Berglund (1976), Birtwistle (2004), Chahoud (2015), Cheung (2017), Ding (2020), Karmali (2018), NGC (2019), Omura (2004), Park (2017), Pedrosa (2011), Rahman (2006), Rakugi (2013), Rimoldi (2013), Tobe (2011), Virani (2020), Wood (2020), and Xu (2015). AMSTAR is n/a for these types of reports.

Full text of questions addressed

1.

Did the research questions and inclusion criteria for the review include the components of PICO?

2.

Did the report of the review contain an explicit statement that the review methods were established prior to the conduct of the review and did the report justify any significant deviations from the protocol?

3.

Did the review authors explain their selection of the study design for the inclusion in the review?

4.

Did the review authors use a comprehensive literature search strategy?

5.

Did the review authors perform study selection in duplicate?

6.

Did the review authors perform data extraction in duplicate?

7.

Did the review authors provide a list of excluded studies and justify the exclusions?

8.

Did the review authors describe the included studies in adequate detail?

9a.

Did the review authors use a satisfactory technique for assessing the risk of bias (RoB) in individual studies that were included in the review? (RCT)

9b.

Did the review authors use a satisfactory technique for assessing the risk of bias (RoB) in individual studies that were included in the review? (NRSI)

10.

Did the review authors report on the sources of funding for the studies included in the review?

11.

If meta-analysis was performed did the review authors use appropriate methods for statistical combination of results? (RCT)

11b.

If meta-analysis was performed did the review authors use appropriate methods for statistical combination of results? (RCT)

12.

If meta-analysis was performed, did the review authors assess the potential impact of RoB in individual studies on the results of the meta-analysis or other evidence synthesis?

13.

Did the review authors account for RoB in individual studies when interpreting/discussing the results of the review?

14.

Did the review authors provide a satisfactory explanation for, and discussion of, any heterogeneity observed in the results of the review?

15.

If they performed quantitative synthesis did the review authors carry out an adequate investigation of publication bias (small study bias) and discuss its likely impact on the results of the review?

16.

Did the review authors report any potential sources of conflict of interest, including any funding they received for conducting the review?

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