Background: Despite the fact that testicular cancer presents good prognosis, wide variations in mortality rates have been reported internationally. In Brazil, mortality trends and estimates have not been fully assessed. The objective of the study presented herein is to analyze the mortality trends for testicular cancer in Brazil in the period 2001-2015 and calculate mortality predictions for the period 2016-2030.
Methods: This is a population-based ecological study that utilized information of the Mortality Information System, on testicular cancer-related deaths in Brazil. Mortality trends were analyzed by Joinpoint regression, and Nordpred was utilized for the calculation of predictions.
Results: The mortality rate for men, standardized to the world population, varied between 0.36/100,000 for the year 2001, to 0.41/100,000 for the year 2015. There was an increasing trend for Brazil (APC = 1.3% CI95% 0.6; 2.0) and the Southeast region (APC = 1.5% CI95%0.2; 2.7). When analyzing Brazilian data for the period 2016-2030, predictions indicate 2888 deaths due to testicular cancer, which corresponds to a 26.6% change when compared to the 2011-2015 period. This change is mostly explained by an increase in the risk of death (14.2%) when compared with modifications in the demographic structure (12.4%).
Conclusions: Testicular cancer mortality in Brazil presents increasing trends, and until 2030 these rates continue to increase.
Keywords: Mortality; Predictions; Public health; Testicular neoplasm; Time series studies.