Long-Term Outcome of Gastric Mild-Moderate Dysplasia: A Real-World Clinical Experience

Background & aims: The natural course of gastric mild-moderate dysplasia in a country with high incidence of gastric cancer (GC) is relatively unknown. We aimed to determine the long-term cumulative incidence of and risk factors for advanced neoplasia in patients with gastric dysplasia.

Methods: This was a single-center observational study including all consecutive patients diagnosed with gastric mild-moderate dysplasia between 2000 and 2017. Follow-up data were collected until December 2019. We determined the cumulative incidence of advanced neoplasia and identified risk factors with Cox regression.

Results: A total of 3489 consecutive participants were followed for a median of 4.19 years from initial mild-moderate dysplasia diagnosis. The median surveillance interval between index endoscopy and next follow-up endoscopy was 1.08 years, and more than half of patients had at least 3 surveillance gastroscopies. During the study period, the majority of participants did not show disease progression, either with dysplasia not detected (51.4%) or with persistent dysplasia (46.1%). There were 88 (2.9%) patients (5.13 per 1000 patient-years) who progressed to advanced neoplasia within a median of 4.3 years. The annual incidence of advanced neoplasia and GC were 0.43% and 0.26%, respectively, within 5 years of mild-moderate dysplasia diagnosis. Increasing age, male sex, moderate dysplasia, dysplasia detected in fundus or cardia at index endoscopy, and persistent Helicobacter pylori infection during follow-up were independent risk factors for developing advanced neoplasia.

Conclusions: Even in a country with high incidence of GC, the majority of patients with gastric mild-moderate dysplasia did not experience disease progression in the long term. Intensified surveillance during the first 5 years after mild-moderate dysplasia detection is suggested.