A real-world data analysis of predictors of early mortality after a diagnosis of multiple myeloma

Background: Despite the increased availability and use of novel therapies for multiple myeloma, early mortality is a pervasive challenge with a significant impact on older adults. Reported rates and predictors of early mortality have varied in the literature, with most studies seldom focusing on community-treated patients.

Methods: In this retrospective cohort analysis of a real-world electronic health record-derived deidentified database of 7512 patients newly diagnosed with multiple myeloma between January 1, 2011, and February 2, 2021, and treated primarily in US-based community oncology practices, factors associated with early mortality (defined as death within 6 months after the multiple myeloma diagnosis) were examined with the use of binary logistic regression.

Results: The median age was 70 years overall. We found an overall early mortality rate of 8.3%, with 73% of early deaths occurring in those aged ≥70 years. Among the early deaths, only 49 patients (8.7%) had documented disease progression before death (median time to progression, 30 days [interquartile range, 7-53 days]). Baseline factors associated with higher odds of early mortality included an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG PS) ≥ 2, Revised International Staging System (R-ISS) stage III, an age ≥ 70 years, receipt of proteasome inhibitor-doublet therapy, a light-chain isotype, and the presence of renal dysfunction (estimated glomerular filtration rate < 30 mL/min). Among those aged ≥70 years, ECOG PS ≥ 2 and R-ISS stage III remained the strongest predictors of early mortality.

Conclusions: Early mortality disproportionately affects older adults (aged ≥70 years) with multiple myeloma. Interventions to support this population are needed to reduce disparate survival outcomes.

Plain language summary: Factors associated with an increased risk of dying within 6 months (early mortality) of a new diagnosis of multiple myeloma (MM) among 7512 mostly community-treated patients with MM were evaluated. The early mortality rate was 8.3%; among those deaths, 49 patients (8.7%) had documented evidence of MM progression before death. The risk of early mortality was greatest for older patients (aged ≥70 years) and those with a poor performance status, poor kidney function, a higher disease stage, and light-chain MM and those receiving two-drug MM therapies. These findings highlight the need for supportive interventions geared toward older adults with MM.